NCAAF · 3 hours ago

College Football Week 3 Best Bets: B1GBets Big Ten Expert Picks

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

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Of the 17 Big Ten teams in action this week (Washington is idle), six are playing FCS opponents, and five are hosting G6 programs (four MAC schools). Of the four P4 vs. P4 games for Week 3 of the College Football season, three have a spread of over 20 points, including both conference games, as Oregon (-27.5) visits Northwestern, and USC (-21.5) travels to Purdue.

I apologize for the small card this week. I’m looking at 14 of 15 games with a spread of over two touchdowns, and 13 over 20 points. Here at B1GBets, we don’t aim to give you picks, but winners. With that said…

Scared money, don’t make money! (Neither does, stupid money.) Let’s Eat!

B1G: Power Rankings | Game Picks | Bowl Projections

Last Week: 6-3 (+2 UNITS) | Overall: 10-7 (+2.5 UNITS)

Not So B1G Bets: 6-5 (+0.5 UNITS) | B1G Bets: 4-2 (+2 UNIT) | B1GGER Bets: 0-0 (EVEN UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-0 (EVEN UNITS)

ATS Bets: 3-6 (-1.5 UNITS) | Team Totals: 6-0 (+4 UNITS) | Game Totals: 1-1 (EVEN UNITS)

NOT SO B1G BET (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 4-2 | Season: 6-5 (+0.5 UNITS)

Wisconsin UNDER 12.5 (vs. ALABAMA) -115 (DraftKings)

Wisconsin @ Alabama Matchup Page

Time: 12:00 PM | TV: ABC

There are several angles here pointing towards the UNDER for Wisconsin’s team total.

For starters, the Badgers aren’t very good on offense. They scored just 17 points against Miami OH in Week 1 and had 14 points at halftime against Middle Tennessee before they pulled away last Saturday. That was at home against G6 units. Now they go on the road to face a staunch Alabama defense. One that’s probably still pretty pissed from their opening loss to Florida State.

According to reports, Billy Edwards Jr. will likely miss Saturday’s game, which means backup Danny O’Neil gets the start. O’Neal’s numbers aren’t bad this season, but he has thrown two interceptions and lacks arm strength, which will be exposed in Tuscaloosa. In addition to QB1, the Badgers will likely be without their starting center, Jake Renfro, a significant loss against a strong defensive line.

Even more concerning is Wisconsin’s struggles on the ground. On their way to 42 points last week, their three-headed backfield of Dilin Jones, Darrion Dupree, and Cade Yacamelli combined for 76 yards on 20 carries (3.8) against Middle Tennessee. They rank 80th in rushing success rate. No running back has produced a rush of 15 yards—stunning considering the program and the competition.

To make matters harder on themselves, the Badgers rank 119th in average starting field position. Long drives against the Crimson Tide in Bryant-Denny Stadium are not a recipe for success.

Finally, stylistically, the Badgers have shifted back to a more traditional offense, with a greater emphasis on running the football with their backs. A smart move in the long term, but also not the type of players they’ve been recruiting under Luke Fickell. More importantly for our purposes on Saturday, the types of offenses that have given the Crimson Tide trouble are spread schemes with dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks (like FSU), which O’Neal (1.7 YPC) is not.

If 12.5 feels too low to you, there’s some value at BetMGM laying -150 to make it UNDER 13.5—a key number—which will cost you -180 at Bet365. FanDuel’s price is -112, but the number is 11.5.

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B1G BET (1 UNIT): Last Week: 2-1 | Season: 4-2 (+ 2 UNITS)

CALIFORNIA UNDER 20.5 (vs. Minnesota) -120 (Bet365)

Minnesota @ California Matchup Page

Time: 10:30 PM | TV: ESPN

While everyone has been hyping up Cal’s true freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, the Golden Bears’ offense hasn’t been very good. They enter this game ranked 129th in third-down success rate (despite being 34th in third-down distance), 100th in available yards, 91st in EPA per pass, 89th in EPA per rush, and 85th in offensive success rate.

Last season, the Gophers held eight opponents to 20 points or fewer. Regardless of who has run his defense, PJ Fleck’s teams have typically been very sound defensively, and they often manhandle mediocre to bad offenses. Through two games, they’ve done precisely that as Minnesota has allowed a total of ten points.

They have a lot of experience along the interior of the defensive line, while first-year starter Anthony Smith has two sacks coming off the edge. He’s a big reason they can generate pressure with their front four. Their linebackers can all tackle well, and safety Koi Perich is an All-American. Expect them to control the line of scrimmage and the game.

Through two games, Minnesota’s defense is third in yards allowed per dropback. Granted, the Gophers are stepping up in competition. So are the Golden Bears.

Offensively, Minnesota is a run-first, run-second offense that plays at a slow pace. It’s that complementary football that often has us backing Minnesota’s defense in the right spots.

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