NCAAF · 5 hours ago

ESPN Predicts Win-Loss Record for Each Big Ten College Football Team

Sammy Jacobs

Host · Writer

18. Purdue Boilermakers
FPI Prediction: 4.3-7.7

Purdue is 0-18 in conference play over the last two seasons and this year's schedule has some winnable conference games, but hitting four wins may be a stretch.

Purdue did themselves no favors by scheduling Wake Forest and Notre Dame. They also have to play at Penn State, Iowa, and Indiana.
ESPN's FPI Predicts Win Totals for 2026 Big Ten Football Teams
Talking season has been kicked off and ESPN recently released their FPI metric that predicts a team's win-loss record. Here is where the Big Ten teams are predicted to finish.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
FPI Predicted Record: 10.2-2.4

The Ohio State Buckeyes are predicted to have the best record in the Big Ten. OSU's schedule features road trips to Texas, Indiana, and USC as well as home dates with Oregon and Michigan. Should that prediction hold, Ohio State will be heading to the College Football Playoff yet again.
2. Oregon Ducks
FPI Prediction: 10.2-2.3

The only three losses for the Ducks the last two years have come to the eventual national champions. Oregon is primed for another run to the CFP, as they return Dante Moore and maybe the best defensive line in the country. Oregon does have to go to USC and Ohio State, and host Washington and Michigan.
3. Indiana Hoosiers
FPI Prediction: 10.1-2.3

The defending national champions are going to be good again and 10 wins seems like the floor. The season will come down to when the Hoosiers play at Nebraska, Ohio State, at Michigan, and Minnesota. The Hoosiers also play USC at home and travel to Washington at the end of the season.
4. Penn State Nittany Lions
FPI Predictions: 9.0-3.2

Penn State brings in basically the entire Iowa State football team and coaching staff. A new start after a disastrous 2025 season could get help from a very favorable schedule.

The Nittany Lions miss Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, and get USC at home. The Matt Campbell Era should get off to a quick start.
5. USC Trojans
FPI Prediction: 8.3-3.9

There is a steep drop off from the top three in the conference to the next tier. The Trojans are a dark horse contender for the College Football Playoff and the Big Ten title, but they will have to overshoot projections.

USC hosts Ohio State and Oregon, but have to come east three times after October 10. The Trojans do get two bye weeks since they play in Week 0.
6. Michigan Wolverines
FPI Prediction: 7.8-4.3

The Michigan Wolverines will be happy to get on the field and out of the media crosshairs for off the field scandals.

Michigan hosts Oklahoma in an early season non-conference game and host Indiana. However, they do have to go on the road to Oregon and Ohio State in November.
7. Iowa Hawkeyes
FPI Prediction: 7.6-4.4

Iowa winning eight games is usually as good as gold. FPI has Iowa right around eight wins again. Iowa was seven points total away from knocking off Indiana and Oregon in 2025. This year, they host Ohio State, but have to travel to Washington, Michigan, and Illinois.
8. Washington Huskies
FPI Prediction: 7.0-5.0

Some have Washington as a Big Ten dark horse, but the national media is discounting the Demond Williams's situation where he tried to leave for a better offer and had the door shut in his face.

The Huskies lost a lot of offensive skill as well.

Washington misses Ohio State, but have to play at USC, at Oregon, and host Indiana. Trips east to Purdue, Nebraska, and Michigan State are not terrible.
9. Nebraska Cornhuskers
FPI Prediction: 6.7-5.3

Last season was supposed to be the 'Rule of Rhule' Year 3, but the Huskers failed to break through. Now, they break in a new quarterback and have an unfriendly back half of the schedule.

Starting on October 10, Nebraska has games with Indiana, at Oregon, Washington, at Illinois, at Rutgers, Ohio State, and at Iowa. If the wins do not come early, it could be a long season.
10. Illinois Fighting Illini
FPI Prediction: 6.7-5.3

Illinois was tabbed as 2025's Indiana. That proved false, but the Illini still won nine games.

Illinois will have eight new starters on offense including starting quarterback Katin Houser.

The schedule is not terrible as they miss Indiana, USC, and Michigan. They do go to Ohio State and host Oregon.
11. Wisconsin Badgers
FPI Prediction: 6.5-5.5

Wisconsin put the money they save from firing head coach Luke Fickell into helping him build a roster. They bring in quarterback Colton Joseph to revive a dead offense.

The schedule is easier than 2025, but still features games against Notre Dame and USC and road trips to Penn State and Iowa.

Anything below this projection may mean the end of the Luke Fickell Era
12. Maryland Terrapins
FPI Prediction: 5.4-6.6

The hopes for the Maryland Terrapins are not high this season, despite having a good young quarterback and possibly the best defense in years.

If the Terrapins don't start 2-1, at minimum, there could be a coaching change. The schedule isn't as bas as it could be as they avoid Oregon and Indiana, but have to travel to Ohio State and USC.
13. Minnesota Golden Gophers
FPI Prediction: 5.3-6.7

For a schedule that misses Oregon, Ohio State, and USC, 5.3 wins would be very disappointing. Minnesota has been consistent under PJ Fleck and a step back would be surprising with Drake Lindsey back.
14. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
FPI Prediction: 5.1-6.9

Rutgers has two All-Americans on offense, but if Greg Schiano does not get the defense turned around it may not matter much.

The Scarlet Knights have a big game early with Boston College and get USC and Indiana at home. However, the back end of the schedule has four of the last seven on the road
15. UCLA Bruins
FPI Prediction: 5.1-6.9

The Bob Chessney Era could get off to a fast start, but early non-conference games against Cal and San Diego State loom large.

The Bruins avoid Indiana and Ohio State, but do have to travel to Oregon and Michigan.
16. Northwestern Wildcats
FPI Prediction: 4.9-7.1

David Braun is 19-19 with Northwestern and the Wildcats open the new Ryan Field this season. However, the expectations aren't high despite hiring Chip Kelly and bringing in former Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles. Much of that is due to having to play at Indiana, at Oregon, and at Ohio State all while having a ridiculous Week 2 bye.
17. Michigan State Spartans
FPI Prdiction: 4.6-7.4

The Spartans brought former Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald back to the Big Ten. Is it just a program reset or the long-term answer?

The Spartans lost their starting quarterback and top receiver to the portal. A non-conference game against Notre Dame makes the hill much harder to climb as well.
18. Purdue Boilermakers
FPI Prediction: 4.3-7.7

Purdue is 0-18 in conference play over the last two seasons and this year's schedule has some winnable conference games, but hitting four wins may be a stretch.

Purdue did themselves no favors by scheduling Wake Forest and Notre Dame. They also have to play at Penn State, Iowa, and Indiana.
ESPN's FPI Predicts Win Totals for 2026 Big Ten Football Teams
Talking season has been kicked off and ESPN recently released their FPI metric that predicts a team's win-loss record. Here is where the Big Ten teams are predicted to finish.

ESPN Predicts Win-Loss Record for Each Big Ten College Football Team

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