Memphis Tigers Preview, Predictions & Season Win Total Pick
Grant White
Host · Writer
Ten straight bowl-eligible seasons have done nothing to satiate the Memphis Tigers faithful, as they are still waiting on a more substantive victory. Those may come in 2024, as they embark into their sixth season under head coach Ryan Silverfield. The Tigers are the favorites to reign over a competitive AAC, entering the campaign priced at +230 to win their first division title since 2019. That distinction also gives them an edge in the expanded College Football Playoff, currently listed as +550 to crack the 12-team field. Their success depends on another standout season from senior quarterback Seth Henigan, but they’ll also need their rebuilt defense to stand up to the test.
Memphis Tigers Preview
2022 Record: 10-3 (6-2); AAC Finish: 4th
A.P. Poll: N/A | Coaches Poll: N/A | PFF: N/A | SP+: No. 36
Head Coach: Ryan Silverfield: 31-19 (17-15) | 6th Season | Overall: 31-19
Offensive Coordinator: Tim Cramsey (3rd Year)
Co-Defensive Coordinator: Jordon Hankins (1st Year; 4th season with Memphis)
Memphis Tigers Futures Odds (FanDuel)
National Championship Odds: +50000 | CFB Playoff Odds: +550
AAC Championship Odds: +230
Regular Season Wins: OVER 9.5 +148 | UNDER 9.5 -180
Memphis Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish
Memphis’ offense will be second to none in the AAC this year. Henigan is looking to build off his breakout junior season, in which he threw for 3,883 yards and 32 touchdowns, both career highs. Further, the Tigers landed running back Mario Anderson, replacing the lost production of Blake Watson. While Anderson never really found his footing with the South Carolina Gamecocks, there’s reason to be bullish on his standing in the Tigers’ backfield. Anderson will be rushing against inferior competition in the AAC, and his powerback approach complements Memphis’ pro spread aerial attack.
Memphis Preview: Why You Should Be Bearish
This defensive unit has to come together in a hurry. The Tigers were active in the transfer portal, adding seven presumptive starters. Moreover, after three seasons as the linebackers coach, the team promoted Jordon Hankins to defensive coordinator. While Hankins’s familiarity with the program and Silverfield’s philosophies won’t be a deterrent, he must create an identity for the new-look Tigers defense. Bolstering their chances is that six of the seven new starters are upperclassmen or grad transfers.
Memphis Breakout Player: LB Chandler Martin, Junior
One of the lone defensive holdovers from last year’s squad, Chandler Martin, anchors the Tigers interior defense. Martin led the team in tackles and sacks in 2023, adding two pass deflections, two interceptions, two forced fumbles, and a fumble recovery. The junior linebacker will be expected to build off those accomplishments, while remaining an integral part of the defense’s new identity. While he has another year of eligibility beyond 2024, it’s not too early to discuss how a breakout campaign could launch Martin into the NFL Draft conversation as a pro linebacker.
Memphis X-Factor: QB Seth Henigan, Quarterback
A soon-to-be four-year starter, the Tigers need Seth Henigan to deliver on offense. Already with a combined 10,776 passing yards and 79 touchdown passes, the Texas native has demonstrated his value to the program and kept the Tigers competitive as they try to reclaim their spot atop the AAC standings. Henigan’s job will be made easier by the return of his top two pass-catchers from last season. Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee combined for 1,984 receiving yards, accounting for 51.1% of Henigan’s production. With Anderson stabilizing the backfield and, hopefully, flaunting his pass-catching skills, Henigan could land on a few NFL teams’ radars while operating Memphis’ pro-style offense.
Memphis Schedule Analysis
The Tigers’ marquee matchup comes in Week 3 as they travel to Doak Campbell Stadium for a showdown against the 10th-ranked Florida State Seminoles. Their two non-conference tilts against FCS foes, the North Alabama Lions and Troy Trojans, to open the year don’t move the needle, but it does afford them some much-needed leeway to get their defense in order. From there, they kick off their conference schedule with a warm-up battle against the Navy Midshipmen before a quick breather against the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders. While Memphis should cruise in its home matchups, its three biggest tests come on the road against the South Florida Bulls, UTSA Roadrunners, and the regular-season finale against the Tulane Green Wave. If the Tigers can secure wins in two of those three contests, they should be well on their way to the AAC Championship Game.
Memphis Prediction: OVER/UNDER 9.5 Wins
Eclipsing their 9.5-win total will determine how Memphis performs in their three crucial AAC road games. The Tigers will likely open as short favorites against the Bulls, but we can’t discount South Florida’s defense at home. Likewise, UTSA is a candidate to upset the balance of the AAC and could emerge as a conference contender with a relatively weak schedule. That means it could all come down to Week 14’s showdown against the Green Wave. As it stands, there’s an appealing edge in taking the over 9.5 wins at +148, but bettors should be ready to hedge that position in all three of the Tigers’ road games. If they pull off an AAC Championship, the Tigers should be well on their way to earning a spot in the CFP.
Memphis Preseason Pick
OVER 9.5 (+148 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)
Memphis Best Bets
Over 9.5 wins +148, To Make the CFP +550
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