Predicting the Outcome of the 6 Big Ten Games in Week 11

8:00 p.m. ET | Washington (5-4, 3-3) @ Penn State (7-1, 4-1) | Peacock

Spread: Penn State -13.5 (-105) | Total: 46.5

Washington is coming off a big win over old Pac-12 rival USC. They’ve already faced in-state rival Washington State and “avenged” their National Championship loss to Michigan, with games against two more former Pac-12 opponents (UCLA and Oregon) to close the season. As big of a win as beating Penn State would be, I’m not sure how up the Huskies will be for this one.

Plus, they haven’t been the same team away from home. Washington is perfect in Husky Stadium, 5-0 (3-0 in Big Ten games). However, away from the friendly confines, they are 0-4, including B1G losses to Rutgers (before RU’s four-game losing streak), Iowa by 24, and Indiana by 14 with their backup quarterback.

Outside of the COVID year, the Nittany Lions have won four straight the week after losing to Ohio State, three by at least 17 points. As tough as it might be for Penn State to take last week’s result against Ohio State, they have something to play for more than ever. The Nittany Lions know that if they win out, they’re playoff-bound and have a good chance of hosting a CFP game in Happy Valley.

Score: Penn State 33, Washington 13

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Noon ET | Purdue (1-7, 0-5) @ No. 2 Ohio State (7-1, 4-1) | FOX

Spread: Ohio State -37.5 (-115) | Total: 53.5

Ohio State is coming off its biggest win of the season over No. 3 Penn State, its third straight one-score game. OSU must be due for a letdown.

Purdue has forced two of its past three opponents to overtime and might be playing its best football of the season.

Spoilermakers, anyone?

Juuuuuuust kidding.

If you’re into bloodbaths, this is the game for you. Ohio State can name their score.

Score: Ohio State 41, Purdue 0

Noon ET | Minnesota (6-3, 4-2) @ Rutgers (4-4, 1-4) | NBC

Spread: Minnesota -6.5 (-105) | Total: 46.5

Besides the undefeated teams, No. 1 Oregon and No. 8 Indiana, no one in the B1G is hotter than Minnesota, which has won four straight, including its past two on the road.

In their four wins, Max Brosmer has completed 70.7 percent of his passes with seven TD passes to no INTs (6:4 TD:INT ratio prior). RB Darius Taylor has rushed for over 80 yards in three of those four games, including 131 yards (6.0 YPC) last week at Illinois.

Besides the lone winless team in Big Ten play, Purdue, no one in the B1G is colder than Rutgers, which has lost four straight, including its past two at home.

The Rutgers side of things is a bit juicier. Sure, Athan Kaliakmanis is completing just 54.1 percent of his passes (on the season) with two touchdown passes to four interceptions during their losing streak. (I didn’t say better.) But that ignores the plot twist that Minnesota’s PJ Fleck pushed Kaliakmanis out the door to bring Brosmer via the portal to replace him. Kirk Ciarrocca, who left Fleck’s staff to reunite with Greg Schiano before last season, calls the plays for the Scarlet Knights. Fleck and Ciarrocca worked for Schiano during RU’s time in the Big East.

What does that mean for Saturday? Who knows, but it certainly adds some intrigue to the matchup.

Score: Minnesota 27, Rutgers 17

3:30 p.m. ET | Michigan (5-4, 3-3) @ No. 8 Indiana (9-0, 6-0) | CBS

Spread: Indiana -14.5 (-105) | Total: 49.5

No team has exceeded expectations more than the Indiana Hoosiers this season. They are now favored to make the CFP (-200 on BetMGM). This team does everything well. Everything. And they have good players. Very good players.

Please do yourself a favor and check them out. RB Justice Ellison (669 yards, 6.0 YPC, 9 TDs) is a terror in the open field. Wideouts Elijah Sarratt (17.5 YPC, 5 TDs) and Omar Cooper Jr. (22.6 YPC, 4 TDs) are big-play threats. EDGE Mikail Kamara (9.5 sacks), S Amare Ferrell (4 INTs), and CB D’Angelo Ponds (5 BUs) are ballers.

Michigan has more talent than any team Indiana has faced. That’s a fact. They have flashed the ability to run the football. Kalel Mullings (710 yards, 5.4 YPC, 7 TDs) is having a good season, and Donovan Edwards has played better of late (5.2 YPC in the past four games). TE Colston Loveland has been a more significant part of the offense when Davis Warren plays a complete game: 29 receptions, 336 yards, three TDs in four games.

All of that is true. Does anyone believe the Wolverines will be the team to slow down the IU wagon in Bloomington?

Score: Indiana 31, Michigan 13

7:00 p.m. ET | Maryland (4-4, 1-4) @ Oregon (9-0, 6-0) | BTN

Spread: Oregon -25.5 | Total: 57.5

Another mismatch. Not as much as Ohio State-Purdue, but there’s no reason to expect this one to be close.

Maryland’s only chance to be competitive is for the offense to play their best football. Billy Edwards has topped 250 yards in seven of eight games, with three 300-yard games and multiple TD passes in six, including three TDs at Indiana, the best defense they’ve faced. Six Terps have 15-plus receptions, led by Tai Felton (73 receptions, 907 yards, 6 TDs).

But how do the Terps slow Oregon down? Maryland “held” Indiana to 42 points (IU averages 43.2 PPG in B1G games) and USC to 28 (28.6 PPG) but allowed 37 to Northwestern (18.2 PPG) and 48 to Minnesota (26 PPG). They’ve allowed 90 points in two Big Ten road games.

The Ducks average 34.7 PPG, so 35 points is a minimum, and 40+ is likely. Dillon Gabriel runs the offense like an elite point guard, and even without leading receiver Tez Johnson, he has four weapons that average 13.5 YPC or better. Expect Gabriel to shred a Maryland pass defense ranked 127th in the country.  

Score: Oregon 45, Maryland 20

8:00 p.m. ET | Washington (5-4, 3-3) @ Penn State (7-1, 4-1) | Peacock

Spread: Penn State -13.5 (-105) | Total: 46.5

Washington is coming off a big win over old Pac-12 rival USC. They’ve already faced in-state rival Washington State and “avenged” their National Championship loss to Michigan, with games against two more former Pac-12 opponents (UCLA and Oregon) to close the season. As big of a win as beating Penn State would be, I’m not sure how up the Huskies will be for this one.

Plus, they haven’t been the same team away from home. Washington is perfect in Husky Stadium, 5-0 (3-0 in Big Ten games). However, away from the friendly confines, they are 0-4, including B1G losses to Rutgers (before RU’s four-game losing streak), Iowa by 24, and Indiana by 14 with their backup quarterback.

Outside of the COVID year, the Nittany Lions have won four straight the week after losing to Ohio State, three by at least 17 points. As tough as it might be for Penn State to take last week’s result against Ohio State, they have something to play for more than ever. The Nittany Lions know that if they win out, they’re playoff-bound and have a good chance of hosting a CFP game in Happy Valley.

Score: Penn State 33, Washington 13

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