UNLV vs San Jose State Week 13 Prediction | College Football Picks Today, Best Bets
Grant White
Host · Writer
The fate of the UNLV Rebels season could come down to Friday night’s Mountain West encounter versus the San Jose State Spartans. With one conference loss, the Rebels desperately need to win out and hope the Colorado State Rams drop one of their final two games. Standing in their way is a feisty Spartans’ side in Week 13. San Jose State is coming off a defeat at the hands of the Boise State Broncos. Despite the lopsided score, the Spartans fought against the juggernaut MWC program. Boise State didn’t pull away until late in the fourth quarter, with 14 of their 42 points coming over the final three minutes of regulation. UNLV will have to find a way to break through if they hope to stay in the MWC Championship Game conversation.
Where to Watch UNLV vs San Jose State
- Location: CEFCU Stadium
- Time: Friday, November 22 at 10 p.m. ET | Where to Watch: Fox Sports 1
- Spread: UNLV -7.5 | Moneyline: UNLV -275 | Total: 61.5
UNLV vs San Jose State Best Bet ATS: San Jose State +7.5
The Spartans’ offensive success depends heavily on the aerial attack, UNLV’s biggest weakness. So far this season, the Rebels are giving up 264.2 passing yards per game, the 20th-most in the country. Not surprisingly, they’ve been worse on the road. UNLV’s last three opponents have averaged 324.7 passing yards, putting the Rebels at a significant disadvantage against a potent Spartans attack. After Walker Eget’s most recent effort, San Jose State is up to 345.9 passing yards per game, the third-highest mark in college football. With UNLV traveling on a short week, the Spartans will be ready to unleash their unrelenting aerial assault on a beleaguered secondary. As a result, San Jose State should be able to stay within a touchdown on Friday night.
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UNLV vs San Jose State Best Bet Total: Over 61.5
Still, UNLV’s success this season has been driven by its offense, and they should be up to the task against San Jose State. The Rebels are averaging 406.2 yards per game this season, dialing up the intensity over their recent schedule. They’re coming off an astounding 515-yard performance against the San Diego State Aztecs, dragging their three-game average to 449.0. However, that increase in production corresponds with a decrease in scoring. The Rebels have knocked five points off their season average, dropping from 36.3 points per game to 31.3 over their past three. That imbalance implies that the Rebels are due for an increase in scoring, which should come against an ineffective Spartans unit. San Jose State has given up at least 401 yards in three straight games, with two of its three opponents eclipsing 33 points. That unbecoming trend is expected to continue against the Rebels. All signs point toward this game going over the total.
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UNLV vs San Jose State Best Player Props
San Jose State Spartans Walker Eget 325+ Passing Yards +142
As noted, the cards are stacked in Walker Eget’s favor in Friday’s conference showdown against the Rebels. UNLV can’t defend the pass, and the Spartans are one of the best at airing it out in the country. Eget has thrown for over 318 yards in three of his past four, totaling 841 passing yards over his last couple of games. Despite this recent success and the Rebels’ vulnerabilities, Eget has a reachable 302.5 passing yard total in Week 13’s MWC battle. Rather than paying the usual prop vig at the neutral offering, we’ve identified an alt-passing total as an ideal entry point. Eget is priced as a +142 underdog to exceed 325 passing yards against the Rebels. Syracuse Orange quarterback Kyle McCord might be the closest comparable to Eget, and he threw for 355 yards and three touchdowns against UNLV. Similarly, Spencer Petras led the Utah State Aggies to 461 passing yards and three scores when they took on the Rebels in Week 7. Betting on Eget to throw three or more touchdowns comes at an appealing +172. But with Floyd Chalk potentially hawking more goal line and red zone touches, we think the top value lies in backing Eget to surpass his alt-passing prop against the Rebels.
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