NFL · 6 months ago

2025 NFL MVP Odds: Early Betting Strategy and Long Shot Picks

Sportsgrid Staff

Host · Writer

As we approach the NFL regular season, the 2025 NFL MVP betting market is already heating up. Whether you’re a sharp bettor or a casual fan looking to gain an edge, understanding MVP odds movement and the narratives behind the players is essential to making smart wagers.

Here’s a breakdown of the best value bets, long shot picks, and NFL MVP futures strategy to help you maximize ROI this season.

Tackle the Odds with SportsGrid’s Expert NFL Game Picks and NFL Player Prop Picks.

Lamar Jackson MVP Odds: Is +500 a Smart Bet?

Lamar Jackson (+500) is among the MVP favorites for good reason. He’s a dual-threat QB with a history of elite production and remains the engine of the Baltimore Ravens offense.

Why it works: Stellar numbers year after year, high team win total projections
Why it’s tricky: Historically, MVP winners don’t win the Super Bowl, and if you’re also betting the Ravens to win it all, there’s a potential hedge conflict

Best strategy: If you’re already betting the Ravens to win the AFC or the Super Bowl, be cautious about over-investing in Lamar’s MVP stock. Still, at +500, he remains one of the best NFL MVP value picks early in the market.

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Joe Burrow MVP Value: A Narrative-Driven Bet at +600

Joe Burrow (+600) is perhaps the best value among the MVP favorites right now. He hasn’t won the award yet, and the media often looks to “spread the love” among deserving players.

Why Burrow makes sense:
- He’s elite in both stats and leadership
- The Bengals have a playoff-caliber roster
- The NFL MVP often rewards “it’s his time” narratives

If Burrow can stay healthy and Cincinnati finishes as a top-two seed in the AFC, he’s in perfect position to cash in.

Betting tip: Combine Burrow MVP with Bengals AFC North winner for a correlated parlay or futures stack.

Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles Stellar 2024 Season and 2025 Outlook

Jalen Hurts: The Best Long Shot MVP Bet at +2000?

Jalen Hurts (+2000) offers intriguing value as a long shot MVP candidate in 2025. Here’s why this wager makes sense:

Saquon Barkley is coming off a high-volume 2024 season (over 2,000 yards)
Historical trends show that RBs coming off massive workloads often regress or get injured
Hurts could take on a larger offensive load again

If the Eagles regain dominance with Hurts leading the charge and Barkley’s role is diminished, Hurts becomes a dark horse worth watching.

Historical insight: In the last 25 years, running backs with 2,000+ yards or 400+ touches have seen major drop-offs the following season. That supports the argument for Hurts as a value bet for NFL MVP.

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NFL MVP Futures Strategy: How to Maximize Value

The key to beating the MVP market is diversifying your bets and playing both ends of the spectrum—favorites and long shots. Here’s a recommended approach:

✅ Take a favorite early (Burrow or Lamar) at the best available odds
✅ Pair with long shot exposure (Hurts or another breakout QB)
✅ Avoid stacking MVP bets on players from teams you’re also betting to win the Super Bowl (to reduce hedge risk)
✅ Watch for injury updates and team performance trends as the season starts to adjust your positions

Tier 6-7 Wide Receivers Heading Towards 2025 Season

Final Word: Monitor and Adjust as the Market Moves

As the season unfolds, you’ll want to revisit NFL MVP odds weekly, tracking movement and injury trends. The best ROI often comes from getting in early before the public catches on.