NFL · 1 hour ago

Buyer Beware: 10 NFL Free Agents To Avoid At High Prices

Paul Connor

Host · Writer

The Bottom Line
The winners of March often become the losers of September. While fans love a splashy signing, the smartest teams understand that the best move in free agency is often the one you simply don't make. Only time will tell if this year's high rollers can buck that NFL trend.
The Allure of the Big Splash
NFL lore is filled with hefty free agent contracts that failed to pan out. From Albert Haynesworth to Kenny Golladay, history shows that winning the offseason rarely equates to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. With the salary cap skyrocketing again in 2026, teams are desperate to find a savior. But as the legal tampering period approaches, GMs must tread carefully, because the difference between a franchise cornerstone and a cap casualty is often just one signature away.

With that reality in mind, here are ten players in this year's class who are prime candidates to underdeliver on their massive projected price tags.
1. Malik Willis (QB)
Malik Willis looked fantastic in his limited action for Green Bay over the last two seasons, rehabilitating his image entirely. However, desperate teams are projecting a sizeable contract (potentially $40M/year) based on a handful of games in a perfect ecosystem. Paying franchise quarterback money for a player with fewer than ten career starts is the ultimate gamble.
2. George Pickens (WR)
Finally looking like a true WR1, George Pickens delivered a monster first season in Dallas (93-1,429-9). Still, writing a top-of-market check carries real risk given Pickens' history of immaturity and week-to-week inconsistency. When a player’s best production arrives right as he’s due to get paid, smart teams at least consider the timing.
3. Kyle Pitts (TE)
Kyle Pitts will likely seek a valuation consistent with a top-three tight end based on his elite physical traits, yet his production has rarely justified that price tag. Even with a well-timed 88-929-5 receiving line in 2025, Pitts offers little as a blocker and still tends to disappear for long stretches.
4. Kenneth Walker III (RB)
History warns that teams often overpay for "recency bias" on the league's biggest stage, a trap awaiting whoever signs Kenneth Walker III. Coming off a Super Bowl LX victory in which he earned MVP honors, Walker's market is going to be red hot, but suitors are paying for the postseason shine rather than long-term durability, especially given the nagging oblique and ankle injuries that sapped his efficiency before 2025.
5. Trey Hendrickson (EDGE)
Trey Hendrickson has been a sack artist for years, but he is entering his age-31 season coming off a 2025 campaign significantly shortened by hip and core injuries. Pass rushers often fall off a cliff in their 30s. Paying Hendrickson for what he did in 2023 and 2024 rather than what he will do in 2026 is a recipe for regret.
6. Daniel Jones (QB)
Daniel Jones revitalized his career in Indianapolis before a torn Achilles tendon ended his season in December. While Jones is widely expected to re-sign with the Colts, any deal is going to be a risky investment for a mobile quarterback whose greatest asset may be permanently compromised, not to mention he might not even be ready for Week 1.
7. Kwity Paye (EDGE)
Despite a disappointing 2025 season where he logged only four sacks, Kwity Paye is projected to command nearly $17M annually. Teams hoping to unlock potential that hasn't consistently manifested on the field are likely to overpay based solely on his athletic profile and former first-round draft status.
8. Riq Woolen (CB)
Riq Woolen is hitting free agency with a freshly minted Super Bowl ring and a physical profile (6'4", 4.26 speed) that GMs dream about. However, his 2025 campaign was uneven, often marred by lapses in coverage discipline and tackling issues that he masked with elite recovery speed. A team desperate for a CB1 will likely pay him $20M+ annually based on his athletic ceiling and playoff run, ignoring that his technical consistency has plateaued since his Pro Bowl rookie year.
9. Jaelan Phillips (LB)
Availability remains the most important stat, yet pass rushers with extensive medical histories often command massive contracts based on "potential" and "flashes." Jaelan Phillips is a premier talent when healthy, but paying him top-10 edge money requires betting against the odds of his durability holding up over a multi-year deal, given his history of significant knee issues and a 2023 Achilles tear.
10. Wan'Dale Robinson (WR)
While Wan'Dale Robinson's 92 catches ranked ninth in the NFL in 2025, his low touchdown numbers (four) and modest yards-per-catch average (11.0) reveal a volume-dependent slot receiver masquerading as a game-changer. Paying $15M+ per year for mostly underneath production is simply bad business.
The Bottom Line
The winners of March often become the losers of September. While fans love a splashy signing, the smartest teams understand that the best move in free agency is often the one you simply don't make. Only time will tell if this year's high rollers can buck that NFL trend.
The Allure of the Big Splash
NFL lore is filled with hefty free agent contracts that failed to pan out. From Albert Haynesworth to Kenny Golladay, history shows that winning the offseason rarely equates to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. With the salary cap skyrocketing again in 2026, teams are desperate to find a savior. But as the legal tampering period approaches, GMs must tread carefully, because the difference between a franchise cornerstone and a cap casualty is often just one signature away.

With that reality in mind, here are ten players in this year's class who are prime candidates to underdeliver on their massive projected price tags.