5 Potential Upsets to Target for NFL Week 4
Gabriel Santiago
Host · Writer
With the NFL season underway, pinpointing the best bets every week can be challenging. Let’s have a look at which upcoming potential upsets to target.
1. Minnesota Vikings vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+124)
The Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) are headed to Dublin, Ireland, in Week 4 to take on the Minnesota Vikings (2-1) at Croke Park. Quietly, the Steelers are ranked 12th in scoring right now, behind 24.0 PPG. Four-time league MVP Aaron Rodgers has done well since joining Pittsburgh, completing passes at a 65.1% clip. Overall, he has a 17-12-1 lifetime record when playing against Minnesota. The Vikings exploded last weekend with quarterback Carson Wentz at the helm. Still, Wentz will face a much greater challenge when taking on the Steelers’ defense on the Emerald Isle.
2. Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+144)
The Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) will face a 2024 division winner for a third consecutive week when they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-0) this weekend. Sunday will also present a meeting of undefeated teams. The Bucs have been victorious in each of their past four regular-season home games, scoring 33.0 PPG in that span. ESPN Analytics is giving Tampa a 44.7 percent chance to take down the Eagles. Conversely, the Buccaneers’ +144 moneyline price (at FanDuel Sportsbook) indicates a 41% probability. With the way quarterback Baker Mayfield, who currently displays a 99.5 rating, has performed as of late, I don’t mind a little risk on the home side here.
3. New Orleans Saints (+980) vs. Buffalo Bills
Do I honestly believe the New Orleans Saints (0-3) will upset the Buffalo Bills (3-0) in Orchard Park this weekend? No, no, I don’t. However, the Saints’ moneyline pricing of +980 should at least make you consider a sprinkle. At those odds, FanDuel Sportsbook says an upset here is only slightly more likely than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers winning the NFC (+1000). Either way, New Orleans finds itself as the most significant underdog of the 2025 campaign thus far. They are getting 16.5 points in Buffalo. This contest should be treated as a low-risk/high-reward scenario.
4. Chicago Bears (-106) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
For my favorite potential upset of Week 4, I am targeting the Chicago Bears (1-2) and Las Vegas Raiders (1-2) in Sin City. Thanks to a porous offensive line, the Raiders are off to a frustrating start in 2025. Vegas has produced only 72.3 rushing yards per game, which is the third-worst clip in the NFL right now. From there, Raiders quarterback Geno Smith has already been sacked a dozen times. Across the way, Chicago’s offense showed a spark last Sunday. Bears second-year signal caller Caleb Williams threw for 298 yards and four scores in the Week-3 win. I think Chicago will continue that momentum against Vegas’ mediocre secondary. For reference, ESPN Analytics gives the Bears a 51.6% chance at victory.
5. New York Jets (+130) vs. Miami Dolphins
Week 4 presents another Monday Night Football doubleheader, and in the earlier bid (7:15 p.m. ET), we’ll see the New York Jets (0-3) taking on the Miami Dolphins (0-3) at Hard Rock Stadium. It is tough to choose a side here, considering both of these AFC East squads are still looking for their first wins. Be that as it may, Gang Green has competed more respectably than the ‘Fins in 2025. Miami has surrendered a league-worst 32.3 PPG to this point. On offense, the Dolphins have churned out just 18.7 PPG. The Jets are not exactly geared behind a prolific offensive unit, but their 23.0 PPG has surprised some folks. With that, I think NYJ (+130 moneyline) finds its first win in South Florida this Monday evening.
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