NFL Thanksgiving Football Best Bets: Packers vs Lions
Gabriel Santiago
Host · Writer
NFL season (and all its spoils) is in full throttle. Arguably, there is no better November tradition than gridiron football on Thanksgiving.
Where to Watch Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
- Stadium: Ford Field
- Location: Detroit, MI
- Where to Watch: FOX
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: DET -2.5 (-105) | Total: 49.5 (-105/-115)
- Moneyline: GB +124 | DET -146
As always, the Detroit Lions (7-4) are in action on Turkey Day, hosting the Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) at ferocious Ford Field. Like many of our own gatherings, this divisional affair is sure to provide drama. Detroit and Green Bay are neck-and-neck in the NFC North standings, and the overall conference is especially deep.
This will be the second meeting of 2025 between the Lions and Packers. In Week 1, Green Bay throttled the Honolulu-blue bunch by a score of 27-13. However, I am leaning on Detroit to turn the tables at home.
The pivotal, most attractive matchup here will be the Lions’ offense against the Packers’ defense. Detroit is currently ranked second in scoring (29.6 PPG) and fourth in total yardage (378.5 YPG). Conversely, GB has held opponents to only 278.7 YPG, which is fourth overall. The Pack has allowed just 96.5 YPG on the ground, but Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs and a massive offensive line will do their best to inflate that clip.
Detroit has defeated Green Bay in six of its past eight meetings. In that same vein, SportsGrid’s model gives the Lions a 52% chance to win. Further, ESPN Analytics yields a 54% winning probability for Detroit.
The Lions’ ML price of -146 (at FanDuel Sportsbook) could be better, but it’s best to play it safe in this spot. Dating back to 2004, favorites have gone 51-9 (85%) SU on Thanksgiving.
Best Bet: Lions ML (-146)
This game will feature two talented signal callers in Detroit’s Jared Goff (54.8 QBR) and Green Bay’s Jordan Love (70.0 QBR). Still, with a set total of 49.5 combined points here, I prefer the under.
The under has converted in four of the past seven (54.7%) tilts between these NFC North rivals, which includes Week 1. From there, I believe the respective defenses on hand are playing with more momentum than the offenses. Detroit and Green Bay rank favorably in several key defensive metrics, such as points surrendered and rushing yards allowed.
Divisional games on short weeks can be challenging to gauge, but I am confident that we will see a contest played very deliberately between these familiar foes. SportsGrid’s prediction model concurs, asserting under 49.5 total points as a five-star wager.
Best Bet: Under 49.5 (-115)
Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily NFL Game Picks and NFL Prop Picks.
NFL Thanksgiving Best Bets: Packers vs. Lions
- Lions ML (-146)
- Packers-Lions Under 49.5 (-115)
Thanksgiving 2025 brings numerous markets and opportunities to set a profitable tone. Best of luck!
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