NFL Week 18 Predictions | Sunday Picks Today, Best Bets

We are into the stretch drive of the 2024 NFL season. While the prospect of eventually running out of football is disheartening, bettors have exciting contests to look forward to. The top teams continue to battle it out for crucial wins in the standings, positioning themselves for playoff success. That continues with a loaded Week 18 schedule. 

We’ve got you covered for betting purposes, highlighting our favorite wagers for this week’s NFL action.

Tackle the Odds with SportsGrid’s Expert NFL Game Picks and NFL Player Prop Picks.

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Dolphins vs Jets Matchup Page
Spread: Dolphins +1.5 (-115) | Jets -1.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Dolphins -102 | Jets -116
Total: OVER 38.5 (-115) | UNDER 38.5 (-105)

A 2-6 start to the season all but sank the Miami Dolphins playoff chances. Yet here they are in Week 18, needing a win and a little help to secure the final seed in the AFC playoff picture. Standing in their way is a New York Jets squad with the kryptonite to defend the Fins’ attack. 

Without Tua Tagovailoa for the second straight week, Tyler Huntley will be under center at MetLife Stadium. Huntley had arguably the best performance of his career last week, and the Dolphins barely escaped the Cleveland Browns‘ grasp. We’re anticipating a letdown performance from Huntley as he quickly regresses from the 84.6% completion percentage and 8.7 yards per pass attempt he had last week. 

The Jets’ defensive front will facilitate that correction. New York has been one of the best at pressuring opposing quarterbacks this season. This season, they average 2.4 sacks per game, jumping to 3.1 in their friendly confines. Moreover, the Jets are a vastly different team at home than on the road. Over their last two home games, they’ve held their opponents to a combined 501 total yards while forcing three turnovers. 

Don’t expect another game-changing performance from Huntley on Sunday. He’ll face constant pressure from the Jets’ defense, making Miami unlikely to gain any offensive traction. We’re betting the Jets prevail in a low-scoring affair.

NFL Best Bet: Jets -116, Under 38.5 -105

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons

Panthers vs Falcons Matchup Page
Spread: Panthers +7.5 (-114) | Falcons -7.5 (-106)
Moneyline: Panthers +300 | Falcons -375
Total: OVER 48.5 (-105) | UNDER 48.5 (-115)

The NFC South has been one hell of a ride. Granted, only the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a shot at winning the division. Still, the constant lead changes have resulted in one of the most tightly contested races this season. Atlanta needs a win and a Bucs loss to punch its postseason ticket, but it won’t be as easy as the betting line implies. 

Ineffective defending has been the Falcons’ undoing this season. They rank in the bottom half of the league in most defensive categories, and they’re tasked with slowing down a Carolina Panthers‘ offense that is finding their rhythm. Twice over the last four weeks, opponents have eclipsed 30 points and 400 yards against the Falcons, a standard the Panthers will strive to achieve. 

After a year and a half of mediocrity, a mid-season benching might have been the catalyst for improved play from Bryce Young. The second-year pro has completed 65.4% of his passes in two of his last three, averaging 7.1 yards per pass attempt. More importantly, he’s helped the Panthers cover the spread in six of their past eight. 

Carolina can embrace the role of spoiler, taking the wind out of the Falcons’ wings. It might not be enough to pull off the outright upset, but it should be sufficient to help the Panthers cover in Week 18. If they do, we suspect this game is going over the total.

NFL Best Bet: Panthers +7.5 -114, Over 48.5 -105

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Bills vs Patriots Matchup Page
Spread: Bills -3.5 (-105) | Patriots +3.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Bills -198 | Patriots +164
Total: OVER 36.5 (-110) | UNDER 36.5 (-110)

Other than Josh Allen‘s starting streak, there’s not much on the line for the Buffalo Bills in Week 18. The AFC East winners have already secured the second seed in the AFC and have gained nothing from trotting their starters out for the final contest of the regular season. While Allen will get the start, his time on the field will be short and meaningless. As such, we expect the betting tides to turn in the New England Patriots‘ favor early in this divisional showdown. 

The Patriots gave the Bills everything they could handle in their Week 16 battle. New England built an early lead in Buffalo, surrendering it later in the contest before falling 24-21. However, that performance exposed the Bills’ most notable flaw—their struggle to defend the pass. 

Buffalo sits 23rd in the league, giving up a hefty 225.7 passing yards per game. That drops them to 21st in the total defense category, a weakness they won’t be able to offset without their offensive stars on the field. As is typically the case, New England’s best efforts come at home. The Pats average 24.5 more yards per game at home than on the road, translating to 3.2 more points per game. 

Buffalo’s attention is already being directed to the postseason. Rather than risking injury in a meaningless Week 18 contest, virtually every notable player will be on the sidelines watching for most of the contest. As such, we’re predicting a late-game surge from the Patriots as they end the season on a high note.

Recommended Play: Patriots +164