NFL Wild Card Weekend 2026 Best Bets: Texans vs Steelers

The NFL playoffs are finally here. The holidays have passed, and incidentally, there are plenty of postseason betting opportunities between now and Super Bowl LX on February 8. We’ve got you covered!

Where to Watch Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Stadium: Acrisure Stadium
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Where to Watch: ABC/ESPN
Time: Monday (January 12), 8:15 p.m. ET

Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds

Spread: HOU -3 (-105) | PIT +3 (-115)
Total: Over 38.5 (-105) | Under 38.5 (-115)
Moneyline: HOU +166 | PIT -198

Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Kalshi Odds

Chance: HOU 58% | PIT 42%
Spread: HOU -2.5 Yes (54¢) | No (46¢)
Total: Over 46.5 Yes (55¢) | No (45¢)

After a fabulous weekend for football, the Houston Texans (12-5) and Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) will wrap up the first round at Acrisure Stadium. Four of the previous five playoff games in 2026 have come down to a single score—will this contest follow suit?

The Texans are powered by arguably the NFL’s top defense. Houston has mugged opponents this year, holding them to just 17.4 PPG (second best). From there, the Texans were the toughest team to move the pigskin against; their 277.2 total YPG allowed was the top clip in the league. They play with physicality, athleticism, and aggression, which has me worried for Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (44.3 QBR).

Undoubtedly, Rodgers will be enshrined in Canton soon enough, but the four-time MVP is not operating at the same level of a few years ago. Pittsburgh has pushed the football downfield less than any other team this season. I’m not sure that formula will hold up against a Houston defense that flies around with ludicrous speed.

Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (62.1 QBR) had a slower-than-expected campaign, but he can subvert that narrative tonight at the confluence of the Three Rivers. The Steelers have showcased one of the worst secondaries in 2025-26, surrendering 243.9 YPG through the air. With that, I anticipate Houston receiver Nico Collins to play a pivotal role.

Frankly, I don’t see an upset happening here. SportsGrid’s predictive model gives the Texans a 69% chance at victory on Monday. I concur with that sentiment. Additionally, I’m confident laying the three points on Houston (preferably -2.5 points at Kalshi) in this spot. This seems to be a bad matchup for Pittsburgh’s offense—will the reinsertion of wideout DK Metcalf turn the tide?

Best Bet: Texans -3 (-105)

When surveying these two squads, I find that the respective defenses are immensely more talented than the offenses. Pittsburgh and Houston both employ game-wreckers on defense, such as Will Anderson Jr., T.J. Watt, and others. That lopsidedness has me eager to take under 38.5 points here.

38.5 combined points is the lowest total of Wild Card Weekend 2026, but Pittsburgh’s weather will not be favorable for offenses. The forecast for Western Pennsylvania calls for cold, windy, and dry conditions. Notably, strong wind is often more challenging to perform in than heavy rain.

Behind their fierce defense, the Texans have been one of the top teams for under bettors this year. So far, Houston has cashed the under in 10 of 17 (62.5%) games. I believe that trend continues against a Steelers offense that looks one-dimensional at times.