NFL · 9 hours ago

All 6 NFL Wild Card Playoff Games Ranked by Upset Potential

Gabriel Santiago

Host · Writer

1) Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars
Arguably, the AFC-South champion Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) have more momentum than any other NFL team right now. Jacksonville will put its current eight-game winning streak on the line this Sunday against the Buffalo Bills (12-5), but oddsmakers have this playoff contest booked extremely close. The moneylines for Bills-Jaguars reflect a -108 pick 'em on FanDuel, but Buffalo is laying 1.5 points despite traveling down to Duval County. Kalshi shares this view, listing both teams with a 50% chance of victory. With that, I am leaning on the red-hot Jags at home. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence (58.3 QBR) will need to outplay reigning MVP Josh Allen (64.7 QBR), but that's possible at this point. Since Thanksgiving, Lawrence has produced a razor-sharp 15-1 TD-INT ratio.

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6) Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers
Despite defeating the Los Angeles Rams (12-5) last November, the Carolina Panthers (8-9) are now viewed as the heaviest underdog of the weekend. Los Angeles will travel cross-country once again, this time, laying 10.5 points for Saturday's affair in Charlotte. The Panthers obviously disrupted Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford two months ago. Still, it seems unlikely that NFC South-champion Carolina, the only 2025-26 playoff team with a losing record, can shock the world again. Kalshi gives Los Angeles an 82% winning probability here. Don't forget: heavy rain is forecast.

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5) Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Houston Texans (12-5) and AFC-North Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) will serve as Wild Card Weekend's final contest, airing in the Monday Night Football slot. Like Carolina, Pittsburgh is a division winner that finds itself priced as an underdog at home. We know wavers of "The Terrible Towel" will bring the energy, but can the Steelers' offense get by Houston's defense? The Texans' D ranked first in yardage allowed (277.2 YPG) and second in scoring (17.4 PPG) this past campaign. Conversely, the Steelers have struggled to push the ball down the field; perhaps the reinsertion of star receiver DK Metcalf will help with that.
4) Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
I believe the best contest of the first round will come from the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) and the AFC-East champion New England Patriots (14-3). Foxborough will be thrilled to host a postseason game again; it hasn't since Tom Brady's final game as a Patriot. This version of New England is incredibly well-rounded, ranking second in offensive scoring (28.8 PPG) and fourth in defensive scoring (18.8 PPG). Across the way, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is looking to get the playoff monkey off his back. Los Angeles is viewed as a 3.5-point underdog in Sunday's nightcap, but if it can keep Herbert upright, the Bolts will stand a much better chance than the 37% that Kalshi is currently giving them.
3) Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
The Green Bay Packers (9-7) and NFC-North champion Chicago Bears (11-6) will get after it Saturday night in the Windy City. As two of the NFL's longest and most hated rivals, we (as football fans) are lucky to get this meeting right now. These familiar foes have not gone head-to-head in the postseason since the 2011 NFC Championship. Fast-forward to now, and Chicago finds itself priced as a +102 home underdog (per FanDuel). The Bears and the Pack split their two games this season; each won at home by just one score. I am expecting another close bid on Saturday evening, but with the Bears back at Soldier Field, I think Chi-Town will bring the energy.
2) San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
Many are expecting the NFC-East champion Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) to run through the San Francisco 49ers (12-5) this Sunday afternoon, but I'm not so sure. For starters, the Niners have never been bounced in the Wild Card or Divisional rounds under head coach Kyle Shanahan. Secondly, San Francisco's offense, which shelled out 351.4 total YPG in 2025, has been far more productive than Philadelphia's. Still, this game likely rests on the broad shoulders of 49ers left tackle Trent Williams (hamstring). Williams practiced in Santa Clara on Thursday, which has me eager to play the Niners' ML at +198 odds, which carries a 33.6% implied likelihood. For reference, SportsGrid's predictive model gives San Francisco a 43% chance at victory.
1) Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars
Arguably, the AFC-South champion Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) have more momentum than any other NFL team right now. Jacksonville will put its current eight-game winning streak on the line this Sunday against the Buffalo Bills (12-5), but oddsmakers have this playoff contest booked extremely close. The moneylines for Bills-Jaguars reflect a -108 pick 'em on FanDuel, but Buffalo is laying 1.5 points despite traveling down to Duval County. Kalshi shares this view, listing both teams with a 50% chance of victory. With that, I am leaning on the red-hot Jags at home. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence (58.3 QBR) will need to outplay reigning MVP Josh Allen (64.7 QBR), but that's possible at this point. Since Thanksgiving, Lawrence has produced a razor-sharp 15-1 TD-INT ratio.

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
6) Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers
Despite defeating the Los Angeles Rams (12-5) last November, the Carolina Panthers (8-9) are now viewed as the heaviest underdog of the weekend. Los Angeles will travel cross-country once again, this time, laying 10.5 points for Saturday's affair in Charlotte. The Panthers obviously disrupted Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford two months ago. Still, it seems unlikely that NFC South-champion Carolina, the only 2025-26 playoff team with a losing record, can shock the world again. Kalshi gives Los Angeles an 82% winning probability here. Don't forget: heavy rain is forecast.

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