NFL Win Totals Betting Insights After the Trade Deadline

With the midpoint of the 2025 NFL season approaching, win totals at BetMGM are starting to tell the story of teams exceeding — and failing — expectations. Several key shifts stand out as bettors reassess playoff odds and second-half momentum.

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BetMGM Line Movement & Market Shifts

• Green Bay Packers: 9.5 → 10.5 (+1.0)
  
  The Packers’ strong start (5-2-1) and +40 point differential have pushed their total higher. Bettors are banking on Green Bay to keep rolling in a balanced NFC North.
• Cincinnati Bengals: 10.5 → 9.5 (-1.0)
  
  Cincinnati’s 3-6 record and -84 point differential have crushed early optimism. The market has corrected sharply as offensive inconsistency continues.
• New England Patriots: 7.5 → 8.5 (+1.0)
  
  Winners of six straight, New England has re-emerged as one of the league’s most complete teams. Their +68 point differential reflects both discipline and balance.
• Miami Dolphins: 8.5 → 7.5 (-1.0)
  
  Miami’s defensive issues (243 points allowed) have dragged expectations lower. Bettors have cooled off despite the offense’s flashes of explosiveness.
• New Orleans Saints: 6.5 → 5.5 (-1.0)
  
  At 1-8 with a league-worst -105 differential, the Saints are the biggest disappointment in the NFC. The Under remains one of BetMGM’s most popular plays.
• Cleveland Browns: 5.5 → 4.5 (-1.0)
  
  Cleveland’s offensive struggles and 2-6 record have bettors fading them heavily. Even with a solid defense, points have been scarce.

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Most Bet Win Totals (Tickets)

According to BetMGM, these teams have drawn the most overall ticket volume on their win totals:

• New York Giants – Bettors see rebound value despite early-season woes.
• Denver Broncos – At 7-2, bettors remain bullish on Sean Payton’s squad to stay hot.
• New England Patriots – Public confidence growing amid strong play and market momentum.

Most Bet OVERs (Tickets)

Public optimism is surging on a few notable squads:

• Broncos Over 9.5 – Riding a six-game win streak, bettors are all-in on Denver maintaining elite form.
• Giants Over 5.5 – The market expects regression to the mean despite a 2-7 start.
• Steelers Over 8.5 – Pittsburgh’s gritty defense and 5-3 record keep Over bettors invested.

Most Bet OVERs (Handle)

Larger bets — the sharp money — tell a slightly different story:

• Bengals Over 9.5 – Despite poor form, some sharps anticipate a late-season turnaround.
• Seahawks Over 8.5 – Seattle’s 6-2 record and +81 differential justify optimism.
• Pittsburgh Steelers Over 8.5 – A balanced attack and elite coaching make them a popular Over bet among pros.

Most Bet UNDERs (Tickets)

The public has also been quick to fade struggling teams:

• New Orleans Saints Under 5.5 – The biggest consensus fade on the board.
• Patriots Under 8.5 – Polarizing team with both heavy Over and Under action.
• Dallas Cowboys Under 7.5 – Public confidence waning after early-season inconsistencies.

Most Bet UNDERs (Handle)

Larger wagers lean toward unders on teams with inflated preseason expectations:

• Saints Under 5.5 – Heavy handle and clear downward trend.
• Kansas City Chiefs Under 11.5 – At 5-4, Kansas City’s -10 ATS mark makes the Under appealing.
• Patriots Under 8.5 – Some sharps expect regression despite recent success.

NFL Win Total Betting Takeaway

The 2025 season has reshaped the win total landscape, with teams like Denver, Green Bay, and New England outperforming early expectations, while Cincinnati, Miami, and New Orleans have slid dramatically.

Public money continues to hammer favorites, but line movement and handle splits show that sharp bettors are finding value in fading midseason overreactions. The stretch run promises volatility — and opportunity — as win totals stabilize entering Week 10 and beyond.