Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Chargers: High Stakes Sunday Night Clash

2025 NFL Week 10: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting & Analysis

Sunday Night Spotlight: Steelers Keep Defying the Odds

The Steelers enter Week 9 riding a wave of momentum after knocking off the Indianapolis Colts — a statement win that reasserted their identity as one of the toughest out teams in the AFC. Everyone had written them off weeks ago, expecting Baltimore to surge ahead in the division race. Instead, Mike Tomlin’s group keeps grinding, and now they’ll take their underdog mentality on the road to face the Chargers on Sunday Night Football.

This one has serious playoff implications: the winner’s postseason odds soar to roughly 80%, while the loser’s drop below 50%.

Line Movement: Sharps Leaning Toward Pittsburgh

The Chargers opened as 4.5-point favorites, but that number quickly plummeted to 2.5 across most sportsbooks — a clear sign that sharp bettors have backed the Steelers. The reason is simple: Los Angeles is hurting up front. Both starting tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, are out, leaving Justin Herbert exposed behind a patchwork offensive line.

Line Snapshot:

Open: Chargers -4.5
Current: Chargers -2.5
Total: 41.5
Ticket Split: 65% of tickets on Chargers, 58% of money on Steelers

That kind of split — public on the favorite, pros on the dog — tells the story. Pittsburgh as an underdog under Mike Tomlin has historically been a profitable angle, especially in games where defensive line dominance can swing momentum.

The Matchup: Steelers Defense vs. Herbert’s Protection

Los Angeles still boasts offensive firepower with Justin Herbert, Oronde Gadsden II, and Ladd McConkey, but if Herbert doesn’t get time, the Chargers’ vertical game collapses fast. The Steelers will unleash T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith off the edge against a backup-heavy line — the exact kind of trench mismatch Pittsburgh thrives on.

Expect Tomlin’s defense to set the tone early with pressure and disguised coverages. On offense, Kenneth and Jaylen Warren should see heavy workloads against a Chargers defense that has struggled to contain backs in space.

Fantasy Angle:

Start: Kenneth Gainwell (PPR Flex), Jaylen Warren (volume), Steelers D/ST (pressure upside)
Sit: Chargers RBs — poor blocking makes it hard to trust anyone not named Herbert
DFS Flier: Quentin Johnson — one deep shot could flip the game script

Betting Element: Low Total, Live Dog

Everything about this matchup screams grind-it-out football. With two elite pass rushes, banged-up offensive lines, and two defensive-minded head coaches, this game should stay under the number.

Best Bets:

Steelers +2.5 (or teased to +8.5 in parlays)
Under 41.5 (-110)
First Half Under 20.5 (-115)
T.J. Watt Anytime Sack (-190)

Teaser Alert:

Pair the Steelers +8.5 with the Eagles +8.5 (from earlier slate). Both fit the classic low-total teaser model — defensive teams in one-score games.

Chargers Outlook: Herbert Needs a Clean Script

The Chargers’ margin for error is razor-thin. Without their tackles, Herbert will need quick-developing routes and help from his tight ends. Expect a heavy dosage of short passes and screens to Gadsden II and McConkey. Still, the Steelers’ defense is elite at closing on the ball — and if Los Angeles can’t establish a run game, Herbert could face a long night.

Stat to Watch: Herbert has been pressured on 38% of dropbacks since Week 6 — the third-highest rate in the league.

Prediction: Steelers Keep It Ugly, Keep It Close

The Chargers have the flash; the Steelers have the grit. That formula has favored Pittsburgh all season, especially as road underdogs. With their defense heating up and Los Angeles missing key blockers, this shapes up as another classic Tomlin cover spot.

Projected Score:

Steelers 20, Chargers 17

Final Picks:

Steelers +2.5
Under 41.5
Steelers +8.5 (Teaser leg)

You can read all about what’s going on in the National Football League at SportsGrid.com.