NFL Week 17: Philadelphia Eagles vs Buffalo Bills Best Bets and Top Player Props

The Philadelphia Eagles may have already secured their division crown, but the Buffalo Bills haven’t given up on their division aspirations. Winners of five straight AFC East banners, the Bills need wins in each of their last two games and some help from division rivals if they hope to extend their streak. The matter at hand is getting past the Eagles in Week 17.

Check out our top best bets for Sunday’s showdown at Highmark Stadium!

Tackle the Odds with SportsGrid’s Expert NFL Game Picks and NFL Player Prop Picks.

Where to Watch Philadelphia Eagles vs Buffalo Bills

Stadium: Highmark Stadium
Location: Orchard Park, NY
Where to Watch: FOX
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Philadelphia Eagles vs Buffalo Bills Betting Odds

Spread: PHI +1.5 (-110) | BUF -1.5 (-110)
Total: Over 44.5 (-105) | Under (-115)
Moneyline: PHI +102 | BUF -120

Philadelphia Eagles vs Buffalo Bills Kalshi Odds

Chance: PHI 48% | BUF 52%
Spread: BUF -2.5 Yes 48¢ | No 54¢
Total: Over 43.5 Yes 52¢ | No 49¢

Once considered the top contenders for Super Bowl, neither team has looked particularly sharp toward the tail end of the regular season. Philadelphia has two wins over its last five games, and those came versus the lowly Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders. While the Bills have won four in a row, they have only covered the spread in two of their last three.

Defensive miscues have been the primary factor in the Bills’ ATS collapse. Opponents have 85 points across the three-game sample or 28.3 points per game, with the Cleveland Browns even looking like a competent offensive team. Most concerningly, the Bills have been out-gained in two of those three contests, yielding -0.3 net yards per play.

The Eagles’ recent metrics are propped up by besting two lesser-than opponents, but they are on an upward trajectory. Over their last three games, the defending champs are up to 379.0 yards per game, a 60-yard jump relative to their season-long average of 319.6. Predictably, that correlates with a massive leap in their net yards per play, with Philadelphia producing a whopping +2.4 net yards per play.

Analytically, the Eagles have a substantive advantage heading into this non-conference tilt. They’ve increased their offensive production in each of the last three games, while the Bills have struggled to contain weaker opponents than the Eagles. Even in the frigid temperatures of western New York, we like the Eagles to pull off the dramatic upset over the Bills.

Best Bet: Eagles ‘Yes’ to Win 48¢

Sean McDermott deserves credit for making the most of his passing attack. Without a standout pass-catcher on offense, the Bills have relied on a team approach to maximize aerial production. Several players have stepped up at various times this season, but Khalil Shakir has been Josh Allen‘s go-to target throughout the campaign.

Leading in the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, Shakir has been a featured contributor on offense. Still, he’s matched that volume with efficiency across the past couple of outings. Over his last two, Shakir has pulled down nine of 10 targets for a tidy 90% catch rate, while delivering 11.0 yards per reception.

More importantly, Shakir has been Allen’s premier red zone target. His team-best metrics are also captured in his red zone production, with Shakir leading the team in targets inside the 20 and nabbing nine of those 12 throws.

The Eagles don’t give up a lot of chunk plays, meaning the Bills will need to grind down Philly’s defense to put points on the board. With that, Buffalo should see more plays coming inside the 20. We predict Josh Allen will turn to his preferred red zone target more frequently in Week 17, looking to dissect the Eagles’ secondary.

Shakir has been at his best over the last couple of games, and we expect him to produce at Highmark Stadium. We’re backing him to score a touchdown versus the Bills.

Best Bet: Khalil Shakir ‘Yes’ to Score a Touchdown 29¢

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NFL Week 17: Eagles vs Bills Best Bets & Top Player Props

Eagles ‘Yes’ to Win 48¢
Khalil Shakir ‘Yes’ to Score a Touchdown 29¢

There is value to be had in this inter-conference showdown at Highmark Stadium. We’re taking a position on the Eagles to win, backing that up with Khalil Shakir to record a touchdown at home.

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