Sunday Night Football: Patriots vs. Bills Same Game Parlay

If you take a closer look at any portion of the NFL betting market, you’ll find the Buffalo Bills squarely atop the price chart. Odds to make the playoffs? Check. AFC Champions? Yes. Super Bowl winners? There they are. Still, the Bills enter Week 5’s Sunday Night Football clash versus the 2-2 New England Patriots as more modest -8.5 home chalk. We’re digging into this perceived anomaly to give you the best betting picks for this pivotal AFC East battle.

These are the wagers we’re including in tonight’s Same Game Parlay! 

Where to Watch New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

• Stadium: Highmark Stadium
• Location: Orchard Park, NY
• Where to Watch: NBC
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• Spread: BUF -8.5 | Total: 49.5
• Moneyline: BUF -420 | NE +330

Leg 1: Patriots +8.5

After several seasons of losing records and high draft picks, Mike Vrabel has transformed the Patriots’ defensive front. As is typically the case in Vrabel’s teams, New England has more defensive bite than we’ve seen in recent years. With that, we’re expecting them to be ready to defend against the Bills, staying within the two-score spread. 

Undoubtedly, the Pats’ defensive front has become the strength of this defense. New England is giving up just 77.5 rushing yards per game, tied for the second-fewest in the league. While their passing defense needs improvement, we’ve seen the secondary come together more recently. Last week, they held the Panthers to 197 passing yards and 5.8 yards per pass attempt. The week prior, Pittsburgh mustered a laughable 139 passing yards and 6.0 yards per pass attempt. 

Those defensive factors are crucial to limiting the Bills’ attack. While they get a ton of credit for their passing attack, the Bills’ ground game has been the x-factor for them this season. The AFC East leaders are putting up 163.5 rushing yards per game, the most in the NFL. Still, we don’t expect them to get their ground game going against the Patriots’ imposing defensive line. 

The New England Patriots are trying to reassert themselves as playoff contenders in a wide-open AFC, and they get the chance to test their mettle against the best team in the league. While the spread appears attainable for the Bills, we like New England’s chances of standing tall on defense, keeping this within +8.5.

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Leg 2: Keon Coleman Any Time Touchdown Scorer +180

As noted, the Bills will be forced to rely more heavily on their aerial assault in Week 5, as they seek to exploit weaknesses in the Patriots’ defense. Naturally, that necessitates increased involvement from one of their premier pass catchers — Keon Coleman. 

In a sea of capable pass-catchers, Coleman stands out like a fabled white whale. The second-year pro leads the team in targets, receptions, and yards, using his elite speed and route-running ability to cut through opposing defenses. Coleman has three or more receptions in every contest this season and has used his elusiveness to gain 11.9 yards per reception.

While the Patriots’ secondary has made improvements, they have been prone to oversight in defending the pass. Last week, Tetairoa McMillan was one of five pass-catchers to record three or more receptions. Further, he was one of three to eclipse 36 yards. Moreover, both of the Panthers’ touchdowns came through the air, pointing toward inevitable success from the Bills on Sunday night. 

There is a handful of Bills players atop the anytime touchdown odds list. Nevertheless, we like Coleman’s chances of finding the end zone the best. We’re including the Bills’ wideout as an anytime touchdown scorer in our Same Game Parlay.

Leg 3: James Cook Under 75.5 Rushing Yards

In his fourth professional season, James Cook has emerged as an early All-Pro candidate. The Bills’ running back has already gone off for 401 rushing yards and five scores on 75 touches. However, he’ll meet his match in tonight’s tilt versus the Patriots. 

New England has tightened its defensive standard, but their most pronounced improvements have come up front. The Pats have held three of four opponents to 64 rushing yards or fewer, with only the Panthers eclipsing that mark. Still, no running back has surpassed 49 rushing yards in any of those contests. 

As good as James Cook has looked, unfortunately, he’s due for inevitable regression. The former second-round pick is operating above expected levels. His 5.3 yards per carry is a few notches above his previous season totals of 4.9 and 4.7. Further, his 100.3 yards per game is nearly double his career average of 57.3. 

Simply, Cook is due for a cooling-off period. He’s running into the teeth of the Patriots’ defense, and we expect them to take a big bite out of Cook’s production. Backing him to fall short of 75.5 rushing yards rounds out our three-pick parlay.

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Sunday Night Football: Patriots vs. Bills Same Game Parlay Picks +699

• Patriots +8.5 -115
• Keon Coleman Any Time Touchdown Scorer +180
• James Cook Under 75.5 Rushing Yards

The New England Patriots will be ready to perform at optimal levels when they take on their division rivals on Sunday night. Still, we expect Keon Coleman to be the driving factor on offense. Backing the Patriots +8.5, Coleman as an anytime touchdown scorer, and James Cook to fall short of 75.5 rushing yards could net bettors +699 on this Same Game Parlay.

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