Top 5 NFL Week 10 Underdog Picks With Upset Potential
Gabriel Santiago
Host · Writer
With the NFL season underway, pinpointing the best bets every week can be challenging. Let’s have a look at which upcoming potential upsets to target.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans (+110)
The AFC South will be on full display this Sunday when the Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) visit the Houston Texans (3-5) at NRG Stadium. This will be the second meeting between these sides in 2025. Back in Week 3, the Jags outlasted Houston in Duval County, 17-10. Still, I don’t doubt that the Texans turn the tables in Week 10. Davis Mills will start at quarterback while C.J. Stroud recovers from a concussion. However, Houston is operating with arguably the NFL’s top defense right now. They have allowed just 13.25 PPG at home this year.
2. New York Giants (+184) vs. Chicago Bears
The New York Giants (2-7) will head out to the Midway to face the Chicago Bears (5-3) at Soldier Field this weekend. New York is having a frustrating campaign, no doubt, but this group is scrappy if nothing else. Across the way, Chicago is a side that has allowed 28.4 PPG, which ranks 29th in the NFL. From there, the Bears are giving up 237.6 YPG through the air. Perhaps Giants rookie sensation Jaxson Dart (60.8 QBR) can continue making progress against this secondary. Either way, ESPN Analytics yields a 50.3% winning probability for Big Blue in Week 10, which presents value given New York’s +184 moneyline price (per FanDuel Sportsbook).
3. Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings (+190)
In the Land of 10,000 Lakes, we’ll see an all-purple affair between the Baltimore Ravens (3-5) and Minnesota Vikings (4-4). Many around the league are high on Baltimore now that two-time MVP Lamar Jackson has returned. However, Minnesota’s defense has been quite effective against opponents’ passing games in 2025. To this point, the Vikings have allowed just 194.5 YPG through the air. They have also recovered six of nine forced fumbles. That could be a factor against a Ravens team that has already lost five fumbles this year. On the other side of the ball, J.J. McCarthy will look to continue building momentum. Baltimore’s D has been porous, allowing 27.0 PPG after eight contests. I don’t doubt that we will see an upset by the home side in this bid.
4. New England Patriots (+118) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 10 will feature an intriguing interconference clash between the New England Patriots (6-2) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-2) from West Central Florida. Both sides here are gearing up for deep playoff runs in 2025, which means there’s a slight possibility that we see this matchup again next February in Santa Clara. Back in the present, New England has snapped off a six-game winning streak. The Pats rank sixth in defense (18.8 PPG) and seventh in scoring offense (26.3 PPG). Conversely, the Bucs are no slouch of a team. Tampa ranks in the top half of the league in most metrics, but they are still dealing with numerous injuries. I like the Patriots (+118 ML) in this spot.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (+130) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
For Sunday Night Football of Week 10, the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) and Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) will get together in Southern California. Given the current density of the AFC standings, this game will have extra ramifications. As of now, the Steelers have gone 4-1 against fellow conference foes. Across the way, the Bolts are 5-1 in that same split. Los Angeles has showcased the better defense between these two, but Pittsburgh (+130 ML at FanDuel) has all the necessary talent to pull off an upset here. Between both offenses and defenses, we will see quality one-on-one matchups all over the field: Jalen Ramsey vs. Keenan Allen, Aaron Rodgers vs. Khalil Mack, T.J. Watt vs. Justin Herbert, and more. With that, I don’t mind an underdog play in primetime. The Steelers are coming off a quality win, and the Chargers have not been dominant at home this year.
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