Fantasy Football Betting Column: Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers

Buy or Sell: Rodgers as a QB1 in 12-Team Leagues

The question is simple—will Rodgers finish 2025 as a top-12 fantasy quarterback? The cop-out answer is tied to health. If Rodgers stays on the field for 15+ games, the numbers suggest he can sneak into the back-end QB1 range. He’s not going to crack the elite tier with Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills, Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles, or Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs, but finishing QB9 through QB12 is realistic.

Last season with the New York Jets, Rodgers wasn’t spectacular, but he wasn’t bad either. He still flashed accuracy, still protected the football, and still had those vintage multi-touchdown bursts. With Pittsburgh, he benefits from a strong offensive line and a balanced run game that should keep him upright. The AFC North is brutal, though—games against the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns will limit his ceiling. Still, when you project attrition across the league (Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers already sidelined, others bound to miss time), the QB12 cutoff looks reachable.

Verdict: Buy it, cautiously. Rodgers won’t win you your league, but he can provide steady back-end QB1 production if he avoids injury.

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The Betting Angle: Rodgers’ Futures and Props

Sportsbooks have set Rodgers’ season-long props conservatively given his age and recent injury history. His passing yards total hovers in the mid-3,600s with touchdown projections in the low 20s. Betting markets are essentially daring you to trust his health.

• Over 22.5 passing touchdowns: Value play if you believe in Pittsburgh’s upgraded red-zone offense.

• Under 3,600.5 passing yards: AFC North defenses and game scripts could tilt run-heavy.

• Steelers win total (9.5): Rodgers gives them stability, but divisional matchups cap upside.

For fantasy managers who like aligning with betting markets, Rodgers is priced as a mid-tier QB—mirroring his fantasy outlook.

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Start/Sit Spotlight: Javonte Williams of the Dallas Cowboys vs. RJ Harvey of the Denver Broncos

While Rodgers steals the headlines, let’s not ignore a practical fantasy dilemma this week: Williams vs. RJ Harvey..

• Williams: Fresh off a two-touchdown opener, he has locked down goal-line work in a Dallas offense that moves the ball with ease. The New York Giants’ front four can pressure quarterbacks, but their run-stopping discipline remains suspect. Williams is an RB2 play with legitimate touchdown equity.

• Harvey: Explosive on his long run last week, but inconsistent usage clouds his outlook. Long-term, Harvey offers intriguing upside in Denver’s developing offense. Short-term, he’s a volatile flex option.

Verdict: Start Javonte Williams this week. Harvey may prove more valuable in December, but the safer bet in Week 2 is riding Dallas’ scoring machine.

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Final Word

Rodgers isn’t going to deliver vintage Green Bay Packers numbers, but his floor is higher than many give him credit for. In 12-team fantasy leagues, he’s a borderline QB1 you can “buy” at cost. From a betting perspective, Rodgers’ props lean under, but savvy managers can extract value in touchdown markets.

As for weekly decisions, keep tilting toward stability. That means Rodgers as a back-end starter and Williams over Harvey in the early-season grind.

You can read all about what’s going on in the National Football League at SportsGrid.com.