NHL · 1 year ago

Edmonton Oilers 5 Keys to Winning the Stanley Cup Final

Grant White

Host · Writer

Don't Fall for the Panthers Traps
We saw it against the Boston Bruins and then again in the Eastern Conference Final. The Florida Panthers play an agitating style, always trying to get under their opponents' skin. Edmonton can't afford to fall for those traps in the final.

Florida relies heavily on powerplay scoring, and teams continue giving them too many opportunities. Their 7.4% shooting percentage at five-on-five puts them in the league's bottom half, while only 31 of their 55 goals have come at five-on-five.

The Oilers can't play into the Panthers' advantage. As tempting as it will be to unload one on Matthew Tkachuk, the Oilers need to take a more disciplined approach.
Let Connor McDavid Do Connor McDavid Things
At the end of the Western Conference Finals, Edmonton Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner offered a glowing endorsement of Connor McDavid's first goal in Game 6. "That's just Connor McDavid doing Connor McDavid things," he said. If the Oilers hope to snap Canada's Stanley Cup drought, McDavid will need to string a few more of those performances together.

McDavid has already cemented himself as the top playoff performer. His 31 points lead the postseason by a substantive margin and is already the fifth-highest total since 2009. And that's without even taking to the ice for the Stanley Cup Final yet. Predictably, that robust output is grounded in elite analytics, as the three-time MVP has posted a 70.2% expected goals-for rating across all strengths in the playoffs.

Still, those metrics don't do McDavid justice. The Oilers captain proves he's the best player in the world every time he steps on the ice. He must maintain that standard to give Edmonton its best chance of hoisting Lord Stanley's Mug.
Extract Maximum Value From the Bottom Six
But it would be unfair to place all those expectations squarely on McDavid's shoulders. Of course, he has a solid complementary crew in the top six. Flanked by Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Zach Hyman, the Oilers have consistently gotten production from their top players. Still, the x-factor in their championship pursuits will be getting output out of their bottom six.

Edmonton wouldn't be in this position if they hadn't already found a way to get their depth forwards going. Low-key, Ryan McLeod has been one of the Oilers' most underappreciated assets, recording a 54.0% expected goals-for rating at five-on-five, but Dylan Holloway has also scored a few timely goals. Further, 11 players have recorded two or more goals, highlighting Edmonton's ability to get scoring from anyone.

That standard needs to continue against the Florida Panthers.
Give Evan Bouchard a Long Leash
For the second straight postseason, Evan Bouchard leads all NHL defensemen in playoff scoring. The former first-round pick has totaled 27 points in 18 games, surpassing every other player except for McDavid and Draisaitl. The league has finally taken notice of Bouchard's unrelenting contributions, and the Oilers need to ride his coattails even further.

It's not just scoring that Bouchard does right. The 24-year-old averages over 24:30 minutes of ice time a night, serving as the powerplay quarterback, constantly being deployed in crunch time, and occasionally filling in on the penalty kill. As expected, his stats are propped up with an elite analytics profile, with Bouchard compiling a team-best 61.2% expected goals-for rating at five-on-five.

Bouchard will have to continue to do those things and more if the Oilers hope to upend the Panthers in the best-of-seven series.
Insulate Stuart Skinner
It has happened in each of the last two playoff trips. The Oilers lose faith in Stuart Skinner and turn to another goaltender to try and carry them over the hump. Although Skinner returned in the second round as a new, improved version of himself, they don't have the same leeway in the final. Edmonton needs to insulate their netminder to help him continue his elite play.

Skinner was nothing short of sensational in the third round. The Calder Trophy runner-up stopped 72 of 76 shots in Games 4 through 6, resulting in a tidy 94.7% save percentage. That improved performance correlates with renewed defensive integrity. Edmonton limited the Dallas Stars to nine or fewer high-danger chances in each of those three contests, insulating their young netminder.

Keeping the Panthers' ferocious attack at bay is no easy feat. Still, the Oilers can't afford any defensive lapses, or they may be unable to stop the snowball from rolling.
Don't Fall for the Panthers Traps
We saw it against the Boston Bruins and then again in the Eastern Conference Final. The Florida Panthers play an agitating style, always trying to get under their opponents' skin. Edmonton can't afford to fall for those traps in the final.

Florida relies heavily on powerplay scoring, and teams continue giving them too many opportunities. Their 7.4% shooting percentage at five-on-five puts them in the league's bottom half, while only 31 of their 55 goals have come at five-on-five.

The Oilers can't play into the Panthers' advantage. As tempting as it will be to unload one on Matthew Tkachuk, the Oilers need to take a more disciplined approach.
Let Connor McDavid Do Connor McDavid Things
At the end of the Western Conference Finals, Edmonton Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner offered a glowing endorsement of Connor McDavid's first goal in Game 6. "That's just Connor McDavid doing Connor McDavid things," he said. If the Oilers hope to snap Canada's Stanley Cup drought, McDavid will need to string a few more of those performances together.

McDavid has already cemented himself as the top playoff performer. His 31 points lead the postseason by a substantive margin and is already the fifth-highest total since 2009. And that's without even taking to the ice for the Stanley Cup Final yet. Predictably, that robust output is grounded in elite analytics, as the three-time MVP has posted a 70.2% expected goals-for rating across all strengths in the playoffs.

Still, those metrics don't do McDavid justice. The Oilers captain proves he's the best player in the world every time he steps on the ice. He must maintain that standard to give Edmonton its best chance of hoisting Lord Stanley's Mug.

Edmonton Oilers 5 Keys to Winning the Stanley Cup Final

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