NHL · 1 year ago

The 15 Worst Signings on Opening Week of NHL Free Agency

Grant White

Host · Writer

Steven Stamkos
At a time in his career of declining production and effectiveness, the Nashville Predators went out and gave Steven Stamkos more than he deserved.

Based on his analytics profile, Stamkos is in the twilight of his career. The two-time Rocket Richard winner has seen his expected goals-for rating decline across four straight seasons, bottoming out with a disastrous 48.0% mark in 2023-24. Likewise, he's seen diminished possession metrics, finishing below 50.0% in the previous two.

Nashville paid for the premium Stamkos but will be getting the discounted version. Sharp bettors and avid hockey fans will recognize this signing as a liability.
Jack Roslovic
It turns out that Jack Roslovic's ceiling might not be as high as everyone expected it to be. Drafted 25th overall in the 2015 NHL Draft, Roslovic hasn't reached the heights everyone thought he would. Although it was only a one-year pact, the Carolina Hurricanes may have overbid for his services.

Roslovic's profile is an analytics nightmare. Just once over the last six years has he finished with an expected goal-for rating of north of 50. Those concerns are compounded by his zone starts, with Roslovic starting no fewer than 58.4% of shifts in the attacking zone in any of those seasons. As implied, the American forward spends most of his time chasing the puck, posting negative relative metrics nearly across the board.

Rod Brind'Amour and the Hurricanes have a tremendous track record of getting the most out of their forwards, but Roslovic is a bridge too far for the Canes.
Corey Perry
The Edmonton Oilers have had a shrewd offseason, bringing back most of the players who helped them reach the Stanley Cup Final. Then there's Corey Perry. The ultimate pest was a healthy scratch throughout the postseason, but the Oilers brass still thought it wise to bring back the veteran on a $1.4 million contract.

Technically, this is a pay increase relative to last year's pact between Perry and the Oilers. The former Hart Trophy winner signed a minimum deal with the Oilers after being bought out by the Chicago Blackhawks. But with just 13 points in 38 regular season games, it's hard to rationalize the raise.

Edmonton prioritized Perry's truculence over Ryan McLeod's solid two-way play. Time will tell if they regret the move, but the early reaction is Edmonton chose wrong.
Alec Martinez
It's hard to tell how Alec Martinez fits into the Chicago Blackhawks plans. The aging defenseman's best days are behind him, but the rebuilding Blackhawks somehow figured he was worth the investment for the 2023-24 season.

Martinez wrapped up a five-year tenure with the Vegas Golden Knights with one of his worst seasons on record. Of the 34 skaters to suit up for the Knights last season, the 36-year-old finished with the fourth-worst expected goals-for rating. That punctuates a five-year decline, in which he's decreased his productivity every year since landing in Vegas.

At best, Martinez was brought on to mentor a young d-corps, but that's worth a lot less than $4 million a season. The Hawks overpaid for a rearguard who will take minutes from a developing cohort.
Alex Wennberg
Unless Mike Grier has a crystal ball that no one else can see, he may regret some of his moves as General Manager of the San Jose Sharks. One such move that stands out is offering Alex Wennberg $10 million over the next two years.

The 29-year-old hasn't come close to that salary threshold since 2016-17. That was the last time Wennberg surpassed 38 points, tallying 13 goals and 59 points in his third year with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Since then, he's plied his craft with four teams, failing to re-capture that standard.

Wennberg is probably one of the few forwards who willingly signed with the Sharks. And it's probably because that was the best offer out there.
Anton Lundell
The playoffs either bring out the best or worst in a player. In Anton Lundell's case, it's obviously the former. The Finnish forward tallied 17 points across 24 playoff games en route to a Stanley Cup. Surely, recency bias was a factor in the Florida Panthers overpaying for Lundell's services.

Lundell's best season was his rookie campaign, in which he tallied 18 goals and 44 points in 65 games; however, he has failed to replicate that standard in his two subsequent seasons. The former 12th-overall selections haven't eclipsed 13 goals or 35 points in either of the past two seasons despite playing in 73 and 78 games.

Florida made the ill-fated mistake of compensating Lundell based on anticipated development. But as we've seen, he's far from guaranteed to earn the $30 million he's been promised over the next six years.
Pavel Buchnevich
At 29-years-old, Pavel Buchnevich finally secured the bag, robbing the St. Louis Blues to the tune of a six-year $48 million contract. That's a substantial, if not undeserved, pay increase for the Russian forward, who is coming off a season of declining play.

Buchnevich has cracked the 30-goal plateau just once throughout his eight-year career, watching his goal total take a hit in each of the past three. Over that stretch, he's also seen a decrease in his expected goals-for rate, dropping from 52.1% in 2021-22 to 49.0% in 2023-24.

The $8 million salary threshold is typically reserved for elite playmakers and game-changers, but Pavel Buchnevich broke that mold with his recent signing.
Brandon Montour
It's not that Brandon Montour isn't worth $7.1 million per season, but the recently crowned Stanley Cup champion won't be worth that much when his contract expires in seven years.

Montour thrived in 2022-23, setting career benchmarks across the board. The Brantford, Ontario native tallied 16 goals and 76 points, surpassing his previous career highs of 11 and 37. The newly signed Seattle Kraken blueliner came nowhere close to matching those totals this season, recording eight goals and 33 points.

Most GMs would be willing to accept that standout year for the anomaly it was. But not Ron Francis. Instead, Montour was signed to a maximum-length contract that Seattle won't be able to wiggle free from until the rearguard turns 37.
Chandler Stephenson
But Francis's madness didn't end there, with the Kraken GM offering an equally asinine seven-year pact to middle-six forward Chandler Stephenson.

Stephenson is a liability not worthy of the $6.25 million Seattle will pay him over the next seven years. The former third-round pick totaled just 51 points last season, surpassing that threshold only twice throughout his nine-year career.

Worse, Stephenson has one of the ugliest analytics profiles in the league. The centerman had a 46.3% Corsi rating and 45.9% expected goals-for rating despite starting 59.3% of his shifts in the attacking zone. That's part of a more incomplete profile that revealed negative relative metrics.

In an era when expansion franchises are thriving, Ron Francis ensured that the Kraken will remain lifeless for years to come.
Brady Skjei
Players are a function of their systems, and Brady Skjei is a prime example. In five seasons with the New York Rangers, the American defenseman had a cumulative 48.9% expected goals-for rating. Not surprisingly, he thrived in Rod Brind'Amour's systems in Carolina (as does everyone), posting a much-improved 52.3% rating. Unfortunately, the Nashville Predators paid for the Carolina Hurricanes version but will likely be getting the Rangers version.

The more concerning aspect of the offering is the length of the contract. The Preds will be paying Skjei until he's 37, well beyond his most productive years, and hardly deserving of the $7 million he'll be due.

The Predators may have lured some of the biggest-name free agents to Nashville, but it came at the expense of future stability.
Sam Reinhart
Fifty-seven goals and 94 points is nothing to shake a stick at. It's also not even close to the threshold Sam Reinhart previously demonstrated throughout his career. But the Florida Panthers decided to compensate Reinhart based exclusively on this year's numbers, securing themselves to what will end up being a disastrous contract.

Take note that 27 of Reinhart's 57 goals came on the powerplay, highlighting the unsustainability of his future outlook. Those concerns are also reflected in his shooting percentage and on-ice PDO, which shot up to 24.5% and 1.029, respectively.

Before this season, Reinhart scored on 14.1% of shots, over 10.0% lower than his performance this season. Regression will be swift and unforgiving, leaving Panthers fans scratching their heads as to why Reinhart is earning $8.6 million in a tax-free state.
Juraj Slafkovsky
What the hell are the Montreal Canadiens thinking?! The Habs went off script when they drafted Juraj Slafkovsky first overall in the 2022 NHL Draft. Two years into that experiment, the Slovakian has yet to demonstrate the ability to be a quality NHLer, let alone a player deserving of a $7.6 million contract.

Totaling just 24 goals and 60 points through his first 121 games played, Slafkovsky has flashed a mediocre ceiling throughout his brief NHL career. A player of this stature typically earns in the $3 to $4 million range rather than eating up a hefty portion of the salary cap.

Montreal could have solved this problem in any other way. But instead of re-upping him on a bridge or show-me deal, they have condemned themselves to a lifetime of underachievement, perpetuating their present state of disillusion.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
For years, the Toronto Maple Leafs have been criticized for their inability to defend their end. So, what did they do to address those concerns? They signed one of the worst defensive liabilities on the open market. Worse, they offered Oliver Ekman-Larsson more term than he deserved, ensuring he drags the franchise down for years to come.
OEL will earn $3.5 million per season for the next four years in Toronto, bringing a career's worth of underwhelming analytics with him. Ekman-Larsson has finished with a positive expected goals-for rating three times over the past 11 seasons, out-chancing opponents in high-danger chances just twice over that span.
In a time when the Leafs should be pinching every penny of their cap space, they went out and overpaid for more of the same issues.
Elias Lindholm
The Boston Bruins better be damn sure they're getting the elite version of Elias Lindholm and not his current lackluster self. The 29-year-old struggled mightily throughout the campaign, appearing undeserving of the term and money the B's committed to him.

Boston signed Lindholm to a seven-year, $54.25 million deal on the opening day of free agency. This despite Lindholm putting up just 12 points across the final 26 games of the season with the Vancouver Canucks.

The only time Lindholm cracked 78 points, he was skating on a line next to prime Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk. Moreover, he averages just 0.68 points per game throughout his career. Maybe the Bruins believe they can get the most out of Lindholm, but he's not worth it at this price.
Tyler Toffoli
Even at his peak, Tyler Toffoli wasn't worth $6 million per season. Now 32 years old and without a supporting cast, the only value he offers is getting the San Jose Sharks closer to the salary cap floor.

A pure goal scorer, Toffoli's production is contingent on being set up by other elite skaters on the roster. Unfortunately, that's a department the Sharks can't deliver on.

Sure, Toffoli has eclipsed 30 goals in each of the past two seasons, but those are the only occasions since 2015-16 and only the third time in his career that he's reached that benchmark. Without anyone to set him up, that will likely be the last time we talk about Toffoli as a legitimate scoring threat.
Steven Stamkos
At a time in his career of declining production and effectiveness, the Nashville Predators went out and gave Steven Stamkos more than he deserved.

Based on his analytics profile, Stamkos is in the twilight of his career. The two-time Rocket Richard winner has seen his expected goals-for rating decline across four straight seasons, bottoming out with a disastrous 48.0% mark in 2023-24. Likewise, he's seen diminished possession metrics, finishing below 50.0% in the previous two.

Nashville paid for the premium Stamkos but will be getting the discounted version. Sharp bettors and avid hockey fans will recognize this signing as a liability.
Jack Roslovic
It turns out that Jack Roslovic's ceiling might not be as high as everyone expected it to be. Drafted 25th overall in the 2015 NHL Draft, Roslovic hasn't reached the heights everyone thought he would. Although it was only a one-year pact, the Carolina Hurricanes may have overbid for his services.

Roslovic's profile is an analytics nightmare. Just once over the last six years has he finished with an expected goal-for rating of north of 50. Those concerns are compounded by his zone starts, with Roslovic starting no fewer than 58.4% of shifts in the attacking zone in any of those seasons. As implied, the American forward spends most of his time chasing the puck, posting negative relative metrics nearly across the board.

Rod Brind'Amour and the Hurricanes have a tremendous track record of getting the most out of their forwards, but Roslovic is a bridge too far for the Canes.

The 15 Worst Signings on Opening Week of NHL Free Agency

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