NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Value Picks

A week has passed since the 2023 NFL Draft, and the Offensive Rookie of the Year Market is coming together.

Bijan Robinson of the Atlanta Falcons was the highest running back selected since Saquon Barkley, who won Rookie of the Year in 2018. Now, Robinson is the frontrunner on the FanDuel Sportsbook at +300. 

Robinson enters a Falcons’ offense that wants to be run-first, led by Arthur Smith, who orchestrated the Derrick Henry-led Titans’ offense. With no clear answer at quarterback, Robinson is the Falcons’ offense right now and should be treated as such in the Offensive Rookie of the Year market.

Bryce Young follows Robinson at +430 and, as the No. 1 overall pick, enters the Carolina Panthers’ organization as the Day 1 starter. He doesn’t have ideal receiving weapons, as the Panthers shipped away DJ Moore, but Adam Thielen and DJ Chark are viable options. Second-round pick Jonathan Mingo is the most promising weapon for Young and an enticing rookie of the year choice at +4000. Still, it’s hard to imagine a rookie receiver winning the award over a highly regarded rookie quarterback.

Here are some other value plays in this market we’re looking to target.

Jahmyr Gibbs – Detroit Lions (+1200)

There’s a reason the Lions shocked NFL fans and snatched Jahmyr Gibbs at No. 12. Expect them to give him meaningful use in the ascending Lions offense. Detroit shipped D’Andre Swift to Philadelphia, and David Montgomery is slotted in as the second back, providing Gibbs an opportunity. Montgomery isn’t dependable health-wise and doesn’t offer much passing upside. Gibbs drew pre-draft comparisons to Alvin Kamara due to his playmaking ability in both aspects of the game, and Kamara is a Rookie of the Year recipient.

Jalin Hyatt – New York Giants (+3000)

Looking back at the Giants 2022 season, there were times that we didn’t know who Daniel Jones was throwing to. Heading into this season, not much has changed. What competition does Hyatt really have in front of him? Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, and Parris Campbell aren’t real threats and don’t have long-term futures with the Giants. Wan’dale Robinson, a 2022 second-round pick, only played six games last year and didn’t shine in his opportunities. After giving Jones a lucrative extension, they need to throw the ball more, and Hyatt has big-play potential. The opportunity in front of Hyatt to become the Giants’ No. 1 receiver in a hurry. 

Rashee Rice – Kansas City Chiefs (+4000)

The Chiefs took Rashee Rice in the second round, and he immediately entered a wide receiver room that’s wide open. JuJu Smith-Schuster left in free agency, Marquez Valdes-Scantling doesn’t have a high ceiling, Skyy Moore didn’t impress, and Kadarius Toney isn’t reliable health-wise. In a Patrick Mahomes-led offense, someone has to shine. The Chiefs placed value on Rice as a potential Day 1 starter by selecting him in the second round. At +4000 and with Mahomes slinging Rice the ball, the value is too good to pass up.