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MLB · 2 years ago

San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview

Sportsgrid Staff

Host · Writer

San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview

MLB – Padres @ Reds – First Pitch: 5:10 p.m.

Expected Forecast: Clear Sky, 90°
 

Get ready for an early game of MLB baseball with a thrilling encounter between the San Diego Padres and the Cincinnati Reds, set to take place at 5:10 PM East Coast time right here in Cincinnati. Currently, the Padres are favorites with a -135 price, while the total sits intriguingly at 11.

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid and our daily MLB game picks.

Looking at the conditions, we’re expecting 90-degree temperatures and a wind blowing out to left field, which should make for a fun game at one of the more hitter-friendly ballparks in major league baseball.

Taking the mound for the Reds will be Graham Ashcraft, who’s been struggling as of late, particularly in the past 30 days with an alarming .321 ISO power number and a weighted on-base percentage of .527. Both left-handed and right-handed batters have been pummeling him consistently.

On the other side, San Diego is in need of an early lead after a disappointing performance in Pittsburgh. Despite having superior pitchers, they were unable to make much difference. Key players to watch in the Padres lineup are the dynamic duo Fernando Tatis and Juan Soto, who have been dealing severe blows to right-handed pitching over the last 30 days.

As for the Padres’ pitcher, Seth Lugo will be stepping onto the mound. While he doesn’t quite match up to the likes of Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, or Joe Musgrove, he has shown effectiveness against left-handed batters over the last 30 days, with a .317 weighted on-base percentage, which is slightly above average.

The Cincinnati Reds’ lineup is gaining a reputation for strength, approaching the level of the Texas Rangers or the Atlanta Braves. Aside from Jonathan India, who has a .304 weighted on-base percentage over the past 30 days against right-handed pitching, everyone else in the lineup has posted elevated numbers.

With this lineup, it seems we’re in for an exciting game and a total that might be going over. It’s worth noting that Ashcraft has been notably poor at Great American Ballpark, particularly concerning his home run record. In his last eight starts, he’s given up a whopping 11 home runs. This could mean some worthy home run props to consider, particularly with the total at 11. Tatis is at +265 to go deep, and everyone else for San Diego is at +220 or greater.

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Despite recent form, the Padres have several threatening bats in their lineup on paper, including the likes of Soto and Machado, and they could potentially go deep. If there’s any situation for them to elevate their game, it would be in Cincinnati against Ashcraft. Today’s match at Great American Ballpark might just be a homerun festival.

 

Spread, Total, Moneyline, and Odds:

  Spread Total Moneyline  
 Padres -1.5  +102  O 10.5  -121  -141  Open
+112  11  -106  -135  Current
 Reds +1.5   -123  U 10.5  -102  +119  Open
 -134  11   -114  +115  Current

 

Projected Lineups:

Padres

Starting Pitcher: Seth Lugo: 3-4, 4.01 ERA, 8.19 K/9

1. RF  Fernando Tatis Jr.   .275, 15 HR, 36 RBI
2. LF  Juan Soto   .268, 14 HR, 41 RBI
3. 3B  Manny Machado   .248, 9 HR, 33 RBI
4. SS  Xander Bogaerts   .260, 8 HR, 28 RBI
5. 1B  Jake Cronenworth   .208, 7 HR, 26 RBI
6. C  Gary Sánchez   .198, 7 HR, 20 RBI
7. DH  Matt Carpenter   .182, 4 HR, 26 RBI
8. 2B  Ha-Seong Kim   .258, 9 HR, 30 RBI
9. CF  Trent Grisham   .210, 7 HR, 21 RBI

Reds

Starting Pitcher: Graham Ashcraft: 3-6, 7.17 ERA, 6.78 K/9

1. CF  TJ Friedl   .320, 6 HR, 31 RBI
2. SS  Matt McLain   .316, 6 HR, 25 RBI
3. 2B  Jonathan India   .256, 10 HR, 41 RBI
4. 3B  Elly De La Cruz   .301, 3 HR, 11 RBI
5. LF  Jake Fraley   .272, 11 HR, 49 RBI
6. DH  Joey Votto   .185, 3 HR, 8 RBI
7. 1B  Spencer Steer   .279, 12 HR, 46 RBI
8. C  Tyler Stephenson   .254, 5 HR, 32 RBI
9. RF  Will Benson   .278, 3 HR, 7 RBI

Betting Insights:

Padres

  • The over hit in 3 of the San Diego Padres last 5 games on the road in 2023

Reds

  • The over hit in 4 of the Cincinnati Reds last 5 games at home in 2023