The Red Sox and Blue Jays hook up at 6:10 PM. Going for the Jays, Kevin Gausman is a Cy Young contender, and his team is priced as a -164 road favorite. Given the smaller ballpark and the runs we’ve seen in this series, you might think this game will be a high-scoring affair. However, remember that it’s only May 4th and first-pitch temperatures in Boston will be in the high 40s-low 50s with the wind blowing in. So, consider that when digesting the info we’re sharing today.
It might not be ideal hitting weather in a hitter’s ballpark, but that doesn’t mean you want to face Gausman. The right-handed pitcher for the Blue Jays has a 2.66 xFIP and an impressive 37% strikeout rate among the 127 batters he’s faced. His splits are fantastic, with a .259 wOBA against left-handed and .245 against right-handed batters. ISO power numbers are low, too.
The Red Sox lineup has been hitting well against right-handed pitching this season, but they won’t have the extra help of warm weather and strong winds at Fenway. Conversely, Bello has an average FIP and a decent 23% K rate. However, his splits aren’t as favorable, with a .400 wOBA against lefties and .391 against righties.
Bo Bichette, Vladdy Guerrero, and Matt Chapman are right in the heart of the Blue Jays’ order, and they’ve been crushing it against right-handed pitching. With great ISO power numbers from all three players, you might want to keep an eye on their RBI prop chances tonight, even in cold weather against a pitcher like Bello.
