MLB · 1 year ago

Aaron Nola Strikeouts | MLB Top Prop Picks Today, Best Bets

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Aaron Nola Strikeouts | MLB Top Prop Picks Today, Best Bets

I wouldn’t say I’m in love with the Aaron Nola versus Twins matchup, but I love the price. I think it should be -110 both ways, so, at a plus price, it’s worth the afternoon sweat.

We get a plus number because the Twins are striking out at the second-lowest rate in the majors against righties over the last 30 days. However, they still strike out at a 21.2% rate this year, and Nola has been on an excellent run of racking up strikeouts. The Twins also struck out seven times yesterday against Wheeler, so it’s not stretching to say he could get seven himself.

His outs line is MAJORLY juiced towards the over at -200 or more, implying we should get to six innings with the possibility of more. His earned run line is also juiced to -160 to the under after he allowed four earned runs to the Pirates. The lines tell me he’s shoving today.

Nola has found his fastball. Over his last three starts, his fastball velocity is up from 91.7 MPH to 92.9 MPH. He was leaving it in the middle against the Pirates, but he’s been fantastic when he’s on the corners. That’s why I’m not that concerned with the matchup at hand. Against the Dodgers, he struck out nine, punched out eight Braves, and struck out nine Marlins. He didn’t reach seven innings in any of them and still cleared this number. If he’s locating and maintaining velocity, we cruise. If he’s not, this is a loser.

As you can see from the screenshot from Baseball Savant above, Target Field is the sixth-best park for racking up strikeouts. His strikeout rate is slightly lower on the road this year, so I’m bringing this up. This is a relatively easy park to get strikeouts in.

One more thing: the Twins are streaky. Getting shutout last night doesn’t mean they bounce back; they may go on a lull here.

It’s worth a half unit at plus money. The matchup will mean little if he’s commanding the fastball with velocity. I’m betting on that here; let’s see Nola rack up seven strikeouts or more.