The Chicago Cubs have added to their NL Central lead in recent weeks. They’ll be looking to put some more distance between themselves and the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday Night Baseball. Still, after orchestrating a come-from-behind win on Saturday night, a series win could be the morale victory the Cardinals need as we approach the All-Star break.
Read up on what plays we’re making on our Sunday Night Baseball Same Game Parlay!
Where to Watch St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
- Ballpark: Wrigley Field
- Location: Chicago, IL
- Where to Watch: ESPN
- Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
- Spread: CHC-1.5 | Total: 7.5
- Moneyline: CHC -200 | STL -168
- Matchup Page
Leg 1: Over 7.5 -108
Rarely do we see totals sink this low at Wrigley Field. The Cubs and Cardinals enter their intra-divisional tilt with a modest 7.5 total. Even if the wind is a detrimental factor, these teams are more than capable of running up the score on Sunday night.
Scoring has been plentiful early in this series. The Cubs routed the Cards in the series opener, taking an 11-3 decision and easily sailing over the 9.5 total. Similarly, these teams combined for 14 runs on Saturday night, again eclipsing the posted total. We’re betting that trend persists at least one more game.
Chicago has been one of the top-hitting teams in the bigs recently. Over the past week, the Cubs have boasted a .874 OPS. They have recorded 11 home runs and 19 extra-base hits over that stretch, translating that to 28 runs across five games.
The Cardinals have a less reliable track record, but last night’s eight-run effort is forecasting what to expect in the series finale. Earlier this week, St. Louis was shut out in three straight games. That means that all of their 11 runs over the last five games have come against the Cubs. Assuredly, that upward trajectory should continue as the Cardinals’ offensive metrics work their way back toward normal range.
The Cubs could almost single-handedly send this game over the total. Factoring in the Cardinals’ presumed offensive ascent, we are forecasting another over at Wrigley.
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Leg 2: Cardinals +1.5 -125
The Cubs have tabbed Matthew Boyd as the starting pitcher for tonight’s NL Central showdown. While he’s exceeded expectations up to this point, regression is inevitable for the veteran southpaw. Consequently, St. Louis should be able to keep things closer than the betting line implies.
Several factors point toward swift correction for Boyd. First and foremost, he’s operating above expected levels. His 2.65 ERA is significantly lower than his expected value of 3.39. Further, Boyd is a contact pitcher in an unforgiving environment. Better pitchers than Matthew Boyd have fallen victim to Wrigley Field. Given his anticipated regression, opponents should have no problem getting to the lefty.
That starts in tonight’s clash versus St. Louis. Offensively, the Cardinals are on the rise, and that trajectory should continue. The playoff-hopefuls are sitting over 100 points below their season-long OPS. So far this week, the Cards’ .596 OPS has deviated from their usual .716 standard. Moreover, all of those runs have come over the past two games in Chicago.
Matthew Boyd isn’t the savior his traditional stats project him to be. We have the southpaw earmarked for regression, and the Cardinals will be happy to facilitate that correction. While it may not be enough to win, St. Louis should be able to at least keep things close.
Leg 3: Pete Crow-Armstrong to Record 2+ Hits +220
The Cubs retooled their lineup this offseason, and they are currently reaping the rewards. Included in that is Pete Crow-Armstrong, who has emerged as an offensive catalyst in the heart of the batting order.
In his second full season in the bigs, PCA has blossomed into a run-producing monster. The Cubs centerfielder has driven in 66 and come around to score 64, thanks to his five-tool profile. He’s also been at his best over the past week. Crow-Armstrong has three multi-hit efforts over his last five games. Across that modest sample, he’s accounted for 16 total bags, including four of his eight hits going for extra bases.
There’s little Erick Fedde offers to slow PCA down. The Cardinals’ probable starter is a contact pitcher with concerning underlying metrics. Fedde’s 43.7 hard-hit rate and .293 expected batting average put him in the 26th and sixth percentile, respectively. Additionally, the left-handed batting Pete Crow-Armstrong will eat up Fedde’s right-handed offerings.
Led by Crow-Armstrong, the Cubs are putting in work this week. We’re counting on renewed production from the Cubs’ outfielder on Sunday Night Baseball, backing him to record two or more hits.
Cardinals vs. Cubs: Sunday Night Baseball Same Game Parlay Picks
- Over 7.5 -108
- Cardinals +1.5 -125
- Pete Crow-Armstrong to Record 2+ Hits +220
We are counting on strong offensive showings from both teams, resulting in another over at Wrigley. However, the Cardinals should be able to stay within striking distance, and Pete Crow-Armstrong should remain an integral part of the Cubs’ attack at home. In the end, parlaying all three picks could return bettors a profit of +949 on Sunday Night Baseball.
