Diamondbacks vs. Padres: Monday Night Same Game Parlay
Grant White
Host · Writer
Yu Darvish makes his triumphant return to the mound on Monday night as his San Diego Padres host the Arizona Diamondbacks. Darvish has missed the first half of 2025 due to elbow inflammation. However, he’s rejoining the Padres at the right time. San Diego is trying to fend off the D-Backs in the NL wild card race. A win in the series opener would push their lead to a comfortable 5.5 games.
Check out what bets we’re making in this pivotal NL West tilt!
Where to Watch Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
- Ballpark: PETCO Park
- Location: San Diego, CA
- Where to Watch: ARID, SDPA
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Spread: SD -1.5 | Total: 8
- Moneyline: SD -134 | ARI +116
Leg 1: Padres -134
The Padres head into Monday night’s series opener as short -134 favorites. As our analysis supports, that leaves a significant edge in backing the hosts.
The Diamondbacks have been struggling. Arizona has just one win over its last five games, accumulating just three across its previous 12. Pitching has been a major deterrent, and that’s unlikely to change with Zac Gallen taking the ball for the D-Backs.
Gallen has been unusually combustible this season. The veteran righty ranks as one of the worst pitchers in the bigs in several advanced categories. Specifically, Gallen sits in the 16th percentile in expected ERA (4.81), eighth percentile in hard-hit rate (47.4%), and sixth percentile in barrel rate (12.4%).
Even in the friendly confines of PETCO Park, Gallen is at a disadvantage versus a potent Padres lineup. We’re making the logical play and are backing the Padres as -134 chalk.
Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily MLB Game Picks and MLB Prop Picks.
Leg 2: Yu Darvish to Record 5+ Strikeouts +168
Yu Darvish enters tonight’s contest with a modest 3.5 strikeout prop. We’re looking at an alternate number to add maximum value to our same game parlay, betting Darvish to fan at least five batters on Monday night.
We’re not expecting a lot of length out of Darvish in his first appearance of the season. Still, five innings should be enough for the veteran righty to get at least five Ks. Throughout his career, Darvish has been a premier strikeout pitcher, and the Diamondbacks should make it easy for him to reach this target.
Throughout his career, Darvish is toting an elite 28.0% strikeout rate. Even with the natural decline over the past few seasons, he finds himself in the above-average category. Since 2022, the five-time All-Star has maintained a 9.0 K/9 rate, consistently hovering around that mark in all three seasons.
The Diamondbacks have all but abandoned their disciplined approach at the plate. As a team, Arizona has 118 strikeouts over its past 14 games, the ninth-most in the MLB over that stretch. That sets Darvish up for a fruitful return. He should have no problem sending at least five hitters back to the dugout.
Leg 3: Jackson Merrill to Record an RBI +190
We are looking to another Padre for our third and final pick, backing Jackson Merrill to record an RBI versus the D-Backs.
While he has fallen short of his lofty benchmarks from last season, Merrill’s analytics profile looks even more promising in 2025. The Padres’ centerfielder has fallen too far off the pace, and he should do an about-face ahead of the All-Star break.
In 2024, Merrill posted a .826 OPS while driving in 90 and coming around to score 77 more. This season, he’s hovering around a .751 OPS with just 29 RBI and 29 runs scored. Despite that decline, the second-year pro has a more robust 41.8% sweet-spot rating, up more than two points compared to last year’s mark of 39.6%. Likewise, he’s maintained his elite barrel rate (11.2%), implying correction is a formality in the second half.
Merrill should have no problem reclaiming his former glory. We’re betting his ascent starts with a favorable matchup versus Gallen. Merrill to record an RBI is the third leg of our same game parlay.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Same Game Parlay Picks
- Padres Moneyline -134
- Yu Darvish to Record 5+ Strikeouts +168
- Jackson Merrill to Record an RBI +190
We’re taking a correlated approach on Monday, backing the Padres to win, Darvish to record five or more strikeouts, and Merrill to record an RBI. If all three hit, bettors are walking away with a hefty +929.
