The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants face a similarly daunting climb. Both teams are tasked with chasing down the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres in the NL West. After their four-game set in Arizona to open the week, one team could move closer to the division lead and a coveted playoff spot.
Check out our favorite bets from the series opener on Monday night!
Where to Watch San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
- Ballpark: Chase Field
- Location: Phoenix, AZ
- Where to Watch: Fox Sports 1, ARID, NBCS-BA
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Spread: SF -1.5 | Total: 8
- Moneyline: SF -142 | ARI +120
- Matchup Page
Leg 1: Under 8 -105
The Diamondbacks enter tonight’s intra-divisional battle as home underdogs; however, both teams are sending scorching pitchers to the mound for the series opener. Naturally, that should result in a lower-scoring game.
Arizona trots Ryne Nelson out to the mound. While starting pitching has let the D-Backs down recently, Nelson continues to punch above his weight class. The righty has given up just two earned runs across his last three starts, striking out 14 across 15.2 innings pitched.
At the same time, Logan Webb has been up to his usual shenanigans. The former Cy Young runner-up has held the last seven opponents he’s faced to a cumulative seven earned runs. That drops his ERA to 1.85 in the month of June, with 0.97 walks and hits per inning pitched and a 9.5 K/9 rate.
Nelson and Webb have been at their best lately, and that’s unlikely to change on Monday night. We’re leading off with under 8.5 in our same game parlay.
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Leg 2: Diamondbacks +120
While the betting market may have the Giants out in front, our analysis supports that this is an ideal spot to back the underdog D-Backs at home.
Offensively, the Diamondbacks wield a significant advantage over their NL West counterparts. Arizona ranks in the top 10 in nearly every offensive category, highlighted by its .329 on-base percentage, .447 slugging percentage, and 5.2 runs per game.
The Giants sit much further back in all of those categories. So far this season, San Fran has compiled a .313 OBP and .371 slugging percentage, translating to just 4.2 runs per game. Moreover, those metrics have taken a hit over the past week. Since June 23, the Giants have posted a disastrous .626 OPS, averaging just 2.8 runs per game.
Offense will be at a premium on Monday night, meaning the victor will be decided by which team can make the most of their run-scoring opportunities. In that regard, we give the Diamondbacks a significant advantage. Arizona moneyline is the play.
Leg 3: Eugenio Suarez to Record an RBI +160
The Diamondbacks are loaded with offensive firepower, but Eugenio Suarez continues to do most of the damage from the heart of the order. Look for him to be a primary contributor on Monday night.
So far this season, Suarez leads the D-Backs in home runs and RBI. Further, he’s been at his best in the month of June. Over the last 30 days, Suarez has an MVP-worthy 1.074 OPS, sending 10 balls into orbit and 15 of his 28 hits going for extra bases. That correlates with elite run production, with Suarez driving in 26 across that sample.
More importantly, his metrics are coming from a sustainable place. The D-Backs’ third baseman is in the 91st percentile in expected slugging percentage and 89th percentile in barrel rate. Surely, those benchmarks will hold up at home, where Suarez continues to do his best work.
Eugenio Suarez buoys the Diamondbacks’ chances tonight. We expect the slugger to put in work in the series opener and be a catalyst for victory. You wouldn’t be wrong in targeting Suarez on most of his props. Still, we see the most value in backing him to record an RBI.
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Giants vs. Diamondbacks: Monday Night SGP Picks
- Under 8 -105
- Diamondbacks +120
- Eugenio Suarez to Record an RBI +160
We have the Diamondbacks winning a low-scoring affair on Monday night versus the Giants. Including Eugenio Suarez to record an RBI could yield bettors +733 on this Same Game Parlay.
