Juan Soto’s Record Deal Sends Mets World Series Odds Soaring
Grant White
Host · Writer
Like any great story, Juan Soto’s free agency journey was rife with intrigue. Sub-plots and unexpected twists occurred daily before the most sought-after player in baseball eventually inked his record-setting deal.
On Sunday, Soto reportedly agreed to a 15-year $765 million contract with the New York Mets, concluding the most captivating story of the MLB offseason.
With Soto off the market, the narrative now shifts to what will happen to the Mets and the remaining MLB free agents.
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Mets Skyrocket Up the Futures Board
Soto’s presence in the Mets lineup for the 2025 season profoundly impacted their standing in the MLB futures market, particularly among the ultra-competitive NL East. Competing against the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, and up-and-coming Washington Nationals, New York had some ground to make up against the teams ahead of them on the futures board. That jump came on news of the Soto deal.
At the end of last week, New York was priced behind the Braves and Phillies. The Mets were installed as mid-range +1100 NL Championship contenders, with an 8.3% implied probability. After signing Soto, those odds jumped to +420. That puts them ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies (+550) and on par with the Braves (+410). More prominently, the price jump represented a significant jump in terms of implied probability.
Based on the current offerings, the Mets have a 19.2% chance of representing the National League in the 2025 World Series.
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World Series Odds Move North Too
Predictably, the Mets’ World Series odds also improved, albeit with a less pronounced jump. During the Soto saga, New York was listed at +1100 to claim its first championship since 1986. Subsequently, the Mets were installed with the third-best odds of winning the World Series. They’re hovering at +800 to dethrone the Los Angeles Dodgers as the best team in the majors.
Pete Alonso and the Remaining Free Agents
The first domino has fallen in the MLB offseason, meaning teams can now reset their focus on the remaining free agents. Among those is Pete Alonso, a key member of the New York Mets’ nucleus.
Steve Cohen can afford to bring back Alonso. We’ve seen New York break the bank in recent offseasons, only to dismantle its roster when the team wasn’t living up to its potential. However, it remains to be seen if the Mets will be willing to shell out the requisite money to bring back their longtime first baseman.
Alonso’s domino is the next to fall. From there, we should see more rapid movement among the remaining free agents.
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Mets’ Forecast
If New York prioritizes Alonso, we could see their odds improve even more drastically. The three-headed monster of Soto, Alonso, and Francisco Lindor would give the Dodgers a more sincere run for their money should those teams meet in the NLCS for the second straight year. Moreover, it would push the Mets over the edge in the National League and NL East.
As a result, we could see their future prices in both markets dip even further as we wade deeper into the offseason waters. The sharpest bettors already got the best of the Mets’ prices; however, savvy bettors could still get a valuable number, especially if they foresee a Mets and Alonso reunion.
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Final Thoughts
Soto’s free agent story has ended, but the Mets fairy tale could be just beginning. With their franchise cornerstone locked up and an exciting supporting cast around him, the Mets could be on the verge of building the latest MLB dynasty. If they decide to ink Alonso to a similar lifetime contract, the Mets’ odds will find a way to soar higher.
Maybe that’s the happy ending the most tormented fanbase in baseball deserves.
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