MLB · 2 months ago

Mariners vs Yankees MLB Same Game Parlay Picks Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

Mariners vs Yankees MLB Same Game Parlay Picks Today

The New York Yankees aim to finish off the Seattle Mariners with a three-game sweep at Yankee Stadium, leaning on their explosive offense to overcome a pitching disadvantage. With Marcus Stroman working his way back into form and Aaron Judge swinging a scorching bat, this same game parlay ties together New York’s elite bats and just enough from the mound. Seattle has struggled to keep up, getting outscored heavily so far, and the Yankees’ advanced stats point to more fireworks tonight.

After going two for three in our last SGP, let’s get it done all the way tonight.

SEA vs NYY Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Mariners vs Yankees

Ballpark: Yankee Stadium
Location: Bronx, NY
Where to Watch: MLB Network, YES, ROOT Sports NW
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Spread: SEA -1.5 (+150) | Total: 9
Moneyline: SEA -108| NYY -108

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Yankees Moneyline -108

The Yankees look to complete the three-game sweep of the Mariners with another good home showing as they go for a fourth straight win at Yankee Stadium. New York has run through the Mariners in the series’ first two games, outscoring Seattle 19-9. While they may have the disadvantage on the mound tonight with Marcus Stroman (1-1, 7.45 ERA) facing Bryan Woo (8-4, 2.77 ERA), they will rely on their potent offense to get the job done.

New York is an analytics darling this season, leading the league with a .474 xSLG a nd .418 xwOBACON. The Yankees also sit second with a .351 xwOBA and .260 xBA. Their approach at the plate is obviously aggressive, leading MLB with a 46.1% hard hit rate and 11.5% barrel rate, while sitting second with a 90.7 MPH average exit velocity. All of these elite advanced metrics equate to the third-most runs scored in baseball and the sixth-most at home.

Despite winning just four of their past 10 games, New York is hitting near .300 but will need improvement on the mound. The Yankees have given up a 7.39 ERA over their past 10 and will need more from Stroman in his third start since coming off the injury list.

I like the Yankees to continue their dominance against the M’s, and it’s rare to get New York at equal money at home.

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Leg 2: Marcus Stroman Over 3.5 Strikeouts -118

After going five innings in each of his two starts since returning from injury, Stroman should be stretched out even further from his 81 pitches in his last start against the New York Mets. Despite the limited pitch count, Stroman was able to come up with four strikeouts, something I expect him to do again today.

While not known as a strikeout pitcher anymore, at least, Stroman has 12 Ks in 19 innings this season. That rate aligns with his numbers from last year, when he struck out 113 in 154 innings.

Lucky for Stroman and us, he will be going up against a team that strikes out quite a bit. Seattle ranks seventh in the league in Ks, whiffing 8.8 times per game. The M’s have the 11th-fewest batted balls this season and often go down swinging.

Getting four Ks is not a huge ask, especially facing a team with as many holes in its swing as Seattle. I expect Stroman to go at least five and notch a near-handful of punchouts to clear this leg.

Leg 3: Aaron Judge 2+ Bases -120

Aaron Judge has been on a heater this month and will look to continue tonight against a tough pitcher. Bryan Woo is having a fantastic year, but has had trouble with Judge. Baseball’s leading hitter (.360) is batting .375 with a slugging percentage of .500 in eight at-bats against Woo. While he has yet to go deep, one of his hits is a double.

Judge has gone deep plenty lately, with four round trippers in his past seven games. Over that span, Judge has gone 10-for-26 to go along with 10 RBI. On the season, the Yankees slugger is second in MLB in home runs with 34, trailing only one of his opponents, Cal Raleigh (36). To go along with a ridiculous amount of home runs, Judge also has another 24 extra-base hits to go along with it.

Judge’s advanced metrics paint a clearer picture of his unreal campaign. The 33-year-old leads baseball with a .469 xwOBA and 26.2% barrel rate, is fifth with a 56.5% hard hit rate, and second with an adjusted EV of 98.5 MPH. Judge also leads all hitters with a .469 xwOBA, .734 xSLG, average exit velocity of 95.3 MPH, and batting run value score of 53.

I like Judge to continue his hot streak, and while I wasn’t willing to pay +190 for a home run, I’ll certainly take on to clear our parlay leg.