MLB · 1 month ago

MLB Best Bets Today: Monday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (July 21)

Gabriel Santiago

Host · Writer

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There is no stopping us now. The MLB season and summer are fully underway, meaning there are betting opportunities every day between now and October. We’ve got you covered for Monday’s baseball slate!

Where to Watch Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Ballpark: PNC Park
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Where to Watch: FDSNDT, SNP
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Spread: PIT -1.5 (+176) | Total: 7 (-115/-105)
Moneyline: DET +108 | PIT -126

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

To start this week’s MLB action, Monday presents an intriguing pitching matchup in “Steel City" between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Detroit Tigers. The projected starters are RHPs Paul Skenes and Jack Flaherty.

Undoubtedly, Skenes (2.01 ERA) has been one of the National League’s top arms. Despite an influx of quality starts, Pittsburgh has lost in three of Skenes’ past five outings. Much of that is due to the Pirates’ lack of offense. Collectively, the Buccos are tagged with a .638 team OPS per FanGraphs, which is the worst clip in MLB.

Across the way, Detroit presently boasts baseball’s best overall record at 60-40. From there, the Tigers’ +83 run differential is the American League’s second-best mark. Flaherty is not having his strongest campaign, but his 3.63 xFIP is impressive. Additionally, he’s shone in nine career starts at PNC Park, holding opposing hitters to a .222 BA and .634 OPS.

These ball club seems to have opposite aspirations in 2025. With that, I am leaning on the Tigers to win in Pittsburgh for a plus-money listing of +108 odds.

Best Bet: Tigers ML (+108)

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Where to Watch Milwaukee Brewers vs. Seattle Mariners

Ballpark: T-Mobile Field
Location: Seattle, WA
Where to Watch: FDSNWI, RSNW
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Spread: SEA -1.5 (+188) | Total: 7
Moneyline: MIL +104 | SEA -122

The Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers are starting a series from the Pacific Northwest today. Notably, the Brewers are riding an MLB-best 10-game winning streak; Milwaukee has not lost since July 5 in Miami.

Considering the Brewers are labeled with favorable +110 moneyline odds in the opener, MLB’s hottest team has certainly caught my eye. Monday night’s contest will be powered by probable pitchers Brandon Woodruff and George Kirby. Woodruff has made just two starts in 2025 since returning from various injuries, allowing only three runs along the way. Meanwhile, Kirby has posted a career-worst homerun-to-fly-ball ratio at 15.1% while allowing a 42.4% Statcast hard-hit rate (per FanGraphs).

The M’s are a respectable bunch this season, but it feels unwise to bet against Milwaukee at this current juncture. The Brewers are scoring 5.6 runs per game on their current heater, and I believe the offense continues to roll in Seattle. Milwaukee’s 5.2 speed score should also pay dividends at T-Mobile Park (91 Park Factor score), where runs can be at a premium on most nights.