MLB · 1 month ago

MLB on FOX: Dodgers vs Red Sox Same Game Parlay Picks Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB on FOX: Dodgers vs Red Sox Same Game Parlay Picks Today

Garrett Crochet has been nearly untouchable in 2025, and with the Boston Red Sox offense mashing lefties, Saturday night at Fenway sets up perfectly for Boston. Backed by elite underlying metrics, Crochet faces a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup that hasn’t seen much of him—and the results haven’t been pretty for those who have. On the other side, Trevor Story has a long track record of success against Clayton Kershaw and enters in peak form. With the bats heating up and a Cy Young contender on the hill, Boston is in a prime spot to bounce back after a series-opening loss in front of a national audience.

Let’s roll as we’ve chased two of our past three recommended SGPs.

LAD vs BOS Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Dodgers vs Red Sox

Ballpark: Fenway Park
Location: Boston, MA
Where to Watch: FOX
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Spread: BOS -1.5 (+140) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: LAD +122 | BOS -144

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Red Sox Moneyline -144

I would certainly like a slightly better price for the Red Sox, but it’s doable at -144. The elevated cost comes almost solely thanks to Cy Young contender Garrett Crochet, where he sits second in the award race to Tarik Skubal (-330) at +250. The Sox starter has earned his elite status thanks to sitting atop the AL ERA board with Skubal at 2.19. Crochet is also tied for the AL-lead in wins with 11 and is second among Junior Circuit pitchers with 11.0 K/9. The dominant lefty’s advanced metrics are just as impressive.

Crochet sits in the top one percent of MLB pitchers with a Pitching Run Value score of 27 and in the top 10% with a 30.6% K rate. The former Chicago White Sox standout is in the top 11% with an 87.4 MPH average exit velocity and top 20% holding opponents to a .222 xBA. Crochet hasn’t lost since May, is on a four-game winning streak, and has seven Ws in his past nine starts. While the Dodgers have fared pretty well against lefties, Crochet is another type of beast. Plus, LA isn’t the only team that’s hit lefties hard this season.

Boston sits third in baseball, hitting .260 against southpaws, while also third in OBP (.331), fifth in SLG (.430), and fourth in OPS (.761). This is bad news for veteran LHP Clayton Kershaw, and it gets worse. Boston is second in all of baseball with a .390 overall wOBACON, second in hard-hit rate (46.0%), and leads the majors with an average exit velocity of 90.8 MPH.

Kershaw has been good for the blue and white this season, with a 4-1 record and 3.27 ERA, but looks prime for regression. In his 18th season with LA, the career-long Dodger has an xERA nearly a run higher than his actual earned run average. Kershaw’s 4.23 xERA puts him in the bottom 35% of pitchers, while his .272 xBA has him in the lower 19%. He’s been lucky in maintaining a .255 opponents’ batting average thus far, and his metrics get even worse. Kershaw sits among the bottom 2% with an average fastball velocity of 89.1 MPH and the lower 16% with a hard-hit rate of 45.1%.

I like the Bosox bats to get to Kershaw and Crochet to shut down LA’s bats as Boston looks to even the series after dropping last night’s opener.

Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily MLB Game Picks and MLB Prop Picks.

Leg 2: Trevor Story RBI +175

While I was hoping for a better price on the Red Sox moneyline, I’m absolutely over the moon on the tag we are getting on Trevor Story tonight. Story has absolutely owned Clayton Kershaw over the course of his 10-year career. The former Colorado Rockie sports a .348 lifetime batting average to go along with a .478 slugging percentage against the Dodgers lefty. Story has eight hits, including three doubles, in 23 at-bats against Kershaw.

On the season, the Sox shortstop is hitting .252 to go along with 15 home runs and 60 RBI in 101 games. His advanced metrics are impressive, specifically his 48% hard hit rate and 91.2 MPH average exit velocity, both landing him in the top 25% of big league batters. Story has been hitting in the middle of Boston’s lineup, anywhere from third to sixth, and most recently lined up in the cleanup hole. The 32-year-old has enjoyed hitting at Fenway this season with an OPS 67 points higher and a slugging percentage 29 points better than on the road. Story has also driven in more runs per at-bat against lefties than righties.

The veteran slugger is also having his best month of the season, hitting a personal-high .315 in July. Story also has season-best numbers in slugging (.521) and OPS (.863) this month. He has a modest four-game hit streak going, where he’s driven in two runs and had a double last night in the opener against LA.

Story logging 2+ bases (+135) is another prop worth considering, but I think the value at +175 for an RBI is too good to pass up.

Leg 3: Garrett Crochet Over 6.5 Strikeouts -152

While the price is a little steep, the strikeouts prop for Garrett Crochet is trending to 7.5, so I’ll gladly grab it at 6.5. As mentioned already, the Red Sox SP has been killing it this season. The former Tennessee Volunteers standout leads Major League Baseball with 164 Ks on the season and is showing no signs of slowing down.

Crochet has logged at least seven strikeouts in nine of his past 10 starts, averaging 8.7 Ks per game and 9.7 in those games he hit the over. Looking at his advanced metrics, it’s easy to see why the big lefty has been so successful with the strikeout. Crochet has a 31.2% chase rate, which puts him in the top 19% of baseball, and a 29.1% whiff rate, ranking in the upper 24% of the league. It’s also clear that opponents are not making great contact, with a barrel rate of 7.1%, landing in the upper 30% and a 37.1% hard hit rate, which puts Crochet in the top 22% of MLB pitchers.

As mentioned earlier, LA has been effective against left-handed pitchers but can be prone to striking out. The Dodgers sit in the upper half of the league with 864 Ks on the year. While not a ton of the Dodgers’ lineup has seen Crochet in action, those who have have, have experienced his dominance firsthand. Shohei Ohtani, for instance, is 0-5 lifetime against the Red Sox hurler, with four punchouts, while Will Smith is hitless in three meetings, striking out twice in those faceoffs.

Crochet will be dealing, and the Dodgers will be flailing on a rocking Saturday night at Fenway in front of a national television audience tonight.