MLB · 1 month ago

MLB Parlay Picks for Today | Blue Jays, Orioles, Rangers Best Bets

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB Parlay Picks for Today | Blue Jays, Orioles, Rangers Best Bets

We chased yesterday’s SGP win with another aggressive three-leg redemption tour tonight—and this one feels like a heater. We’re grabbing value on a red-hot Toronto squad at plus money, fading the worst bats in baseball in Cleveland, and riding a sneaky-strong Rangers starter to close it out. This isn’t a homerun parlay built on hype. It’s built on matchups, metrics, and one team we just can’t quit. The Jays are slugging like it’s 2015, Bassitt’s dealing, and the Guardians’ bats are still missing.

Let’s punch back with a +629 payout that makes sense from top to bottom.

Let’s ride.

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Where to Watch Yankees vs Blue Jays

Ballpark: Rogers Centre
Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Where to Watch: Amazon Prime Video, SNET (Local)
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
Spread: NYY -1.5 (+118) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: NYY -142 | TOR +120

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Blue Jays Moneyline vs Yankees +120

I don’t care if Whitey Ford is on the mound for the New York Yankees, getting plus money on the Toronto Blue Jays, at home, with the kind of roll they’re on and how they’ve handled New York screams value.

Sure, Max Fried is a good pitcher having a great season, but Toronto has just been too good to pass up on a price like this. Plus, Fried hasn’t pitched in 11 days after dealing with a blister and having the All-Star break, so he may not be at his sharpest.

Even if Fried is at his best, the Blue Jays have shown they can hit any pitcher in the league this season, including Fried. The Birds got to the AL Cy Young contender just a few weeks ago, beating Max and his Yankees 12-5 on Canada Day (July 1). Toronto chased Fried after just hitting a pair of home runs and plating four times through six frames. It was par for the course for the Jays’ offense.

Toronto leads MLB with a .260 team batting average, is second in OBP (.332), and is in the top 10 in runs scored (4.6/game) and OPS (.739). At home, they are even better. The Jays have scored the second-most runs in baseball in their friendly confines, while brandishing an MLB-best .274 batting average. The Jays also sport stellar advanced metrics, leading the league with a .269 xBA, while sitting fifth in xwOBA (.338) and top ten in xwOBACON (.373).

On Toronto’s mound, Chris Bassitt has had the Yankees’ number for a while now. While tonight will be his first meeting with the Pinstripers this season, he’s dominated them the past few years. Last season, Bassitt went 2-0, with a 0.73 ERA and 1.14 WHIP against New York. That was preceded by a 2023 campaign that saw the former New York Met shut out the Bronx Bombers over two starts, where he went 14.2 innings, while striking out 19.

Bassitt is who we want on the mound tonight, going for the series win and improving Toronto to 6-1 against the Yankees this season.

NYY vs TOR Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Orioles vs Guardians

Ballpark: Progressive Field
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Where to Watch: CLEG, MASN2
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Spread: CLE -1.5 (+164) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: BAL +106 | CLE -124

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 2: Guardians vs Orioles Under 8.5 (-106)

While this may not be the blockbuster, fireworks game of the night, we are getting the under at a very nice price here. It’s been a disappointing season for both the Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians, and we expect the disappointing performances to continue tonight. While one team has to win, it doesn’t mean they have to score much.

The Guardians might just be the worst offense in baseball. Cleveland ranks dead last in every major advanced metric stat. Their xBA (.229), xLG (.375), xwOBA (.297), and xwOBACON (.341) are just laughable. The gut-busting continues when examining the Guardians’ quality of swings and ball contact. Cleveland also ranks dead last in hard hit rate at 35.9%, second from the bottom with a 6.8% barrel rate, and second-worst with an 88.5 MPH exit velocity. To the surprise of no one, the Guardians are the fifth-lowest scoring team in baseball, with the second-worst batting average (.225).

Baltimore has not been much better than their opponents tonight. The Orioles are in the bottom half of the league in xBA (.250), xLG (.419), and xwOBA (.319). Right there with Cleveland, the O’s have scored the seventh-fewest runs in baseball this season and sit with the eighth-worst batting average (.239).

No, there are not aces on the mound tonight with Zach Eflin making his first start in a month for the Orioles, facing Slade Cecconi, but these teams have trouble hitting everybody and anybody.

Expect a low-scoring affair on the Cuyahoga tonight.

BAL vs CLE Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Athletics vs Rangers

Ballpark: Arlington, Texas
Location: Globe Life Field
Where to Watch: RSN, NBCS-CA
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Spread: TEX -1.5 (+118) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: ATH +120 | TEX -142

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 3: Rangers Moneyline vs Athletics -142

It’s been a very nice bounce-back season for Patrick Corbin this year. The Texas Rangers starter is sporting a 3.91 ERA, his lowest since he pitched to a 3.25 ERA way back in 2019. He’ll look to continue his trend of gems against a very mediocre Athletics side at home.

Corbin has had a solid string of starts lately, allowing three or fewer runs in his past four starts. Over that span, the former Washington National has tossed 22.2 innings, won twice, and struck out 21 batters. Corbin has also fared pretty well against the A’s this season, going 1-1 with a 3.72 ERA, while striking out nine in 9.2 frames. He could be in for a similar performance against a poor Athletics offense.

The A’s rank sixth from the bottom with an xBA of .245 to go along with a .407 xSLG and .314 xwOBA that puts them in the bottom 10. Scoring just 4.2 runs per game, the Athletics sit in the bottom half of baseball and have actually overachieved relative to their advanced metrics. Further regression at the plate is an inevitability for this former Oakland-based squad.

Texas has not had the type of offense fans are used to in the Lone Star State. The Rangers have scored the eighth-fewest runs in baseball with 413 on the season. That said, the team has dealt with injuries to expected producers like Corey Seager, Josh Jung, and Joc Pederson. Texas was also plagued with slow starts from Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia, so much more is expected at the plate down the stretch.

At 30-20, the near .500 Rangers have been much better at home, as they look to complete the sweep tonight. While they’ve done it with pitching, ranking first in team ERA (3.18) and first in WHIP (1.16), their bats are due for progression. As they gear up to chase down a playoff spot (1.5 games back of the wild card), every game is crucial.

I like Texas to complete the sweep and cash our final leg tonight.

ATH vs TEX Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates