2025 World Series Dark Horses: 5 MLB Teams to Bet On Now!
Joe Cervenka
Host · Writer
Toronto Blue Jays
World Series Odds: +1100
American League Winner Odds: +410
The Toronto Blue Jays lineup has been one of the steadiest forces in baseball. The Jays lead MLB in batting average (.268) by a comfortable margin and have been even hotter lately with a league-best .287 mark over the past month. They also pace the league in on-base percentage (.337). Toronto sits third in OPS (.766), behind only the mighty New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, who only happen to have Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani crushing baseballs for them.
The advanced profile matches the surface stats: Toronto owns the league’s top expected batting average (.271), while placing fifth in xwOBA (.341) and sixth in xSLG (.443). That combination of contact skills and power efficiency makes the Jays a lineup built to score against any pitching staff come October.
Speaking of pitching staffs, Toronto may have the most experienced rotation in baseball. Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Shane Bieber have years of MLB service, playoff time and Cy Youngs between them.
While the bullpen is a little shaky, Toronto has an elite combination of starting pitching and offense that will profile well in the postseason. At better than 10-to-1, it's a play I'm comfortable laying down.
New York Mets
World Series Odds: +1500
National League Winner Odds: +850
The New York Mets are starting to look like a legitimate World Series dark horse. With Pete Alonso, Juan Soto, Brandon Nimmo, and Francisco Lindor anchoring the order, this lineup is relentless — deep, disciplined, and punishing. The analytics back it up: New York ranks third in expected slugging (.463), first in xwOBA (.349), and leads MLB in hard-hit rate (46.0%). They’re also top-three in barrel rate (10.5%) and average exit velocity (90.6 MPH). Pair those metrics with a .759 OPS and top-10 run production, and you’ve got an offense built to overwhelm even October’s best arms.
It's New York's arms, at least the starting ones, that will have to step up in the playoffs. Despite ranking 11th with a 3.88 ERA among starters, they don't have a legit ace. The likes of Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, and David Peterson will be tasked with getting the ball to New York's bolstered bullpen.
Adding last year's saves leader, Ryan Helsley, and Tyler Rogers (1.90 ERA) at the trade deadline to join elite closer Edwin Diaz was an exercise in building a shutdown pen to give opposing teams little chance to come back after six innings.
At +1500, the Mets are tied for 10th on the World Series odds boards. With a lineup that can bang with anyone and a dominant bullpen, this team could make noise in the playoffs.
Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily MLB Game Picks and MLB Prop Picks.
Chicago Cubs
World Series Odds: +1500
National League Winner Odds: +750
The Chicago Cubs have quietly built one of the most complete lineups in baseball, powered by Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Chicago sits sixth in runs per game (4.9), eighth in OPS (.750), and inside the top 10 in team batting average (.250). Their 188 homers rank eighth, with Tucker slugging 21 and Crow-Armstrong adding 28.
The underlying data points to even more upside: second in expected batting average (.266), second in expected slugging (.463), and fourth in xwOBA (.345). With a 10.1% barrel rate and top-six launch angle, this is a lineup built to break through in October.
Like the Mets, Chicago doesn't have an overwhelming pitching staff but has some top-end talent in Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd. While the starting staff isn't deep, they may be ok in a short series. With a team ERA (3.88), landing them just outside the top 10, Chicago has a nice mix of offense and pitching.
Odds of +1500 are too tempting to pass up on a team that has been among the elite in baseball all year.
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
Seattle Mariners
World Series Odds: +1400
American League Winner Odds: +600
Just a tick above the Mets and Cubs come the Seattle Mariners, who made a lot of noise turning this team into a serious contender at the trade deadline.
Major deadline additions Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez give this lineup more depth and balance, and as they settle in, the production should only climb. Seattle’s offense has been steady, but there’s reason to believe it’s trending up. The Mariners rank 12th in runs per game (4.6), post a .729 OPS, and sit 11th in slugging at .411 — numbers that keep them hovering just outside the top tier.
Where Seattle really shines for a playoff series is with their top of the rotation. The Mariners can parade out Bryan Woo (MLB-leading 19 quality starts), strikeout machine Logan Gilbert (144 Ks in 103 IP), George Kirby (ERA under 3.94 for first four seasons), and Luis Castillo (3.60 career ERA). They may have the best postseason starting staff in baseball.
With capable bats and an elite pitching staff, Seattle has the kind of complete profile that can suddenly make it a dangerous October threat. At +1300, we're betting that threat will be tough to neutralize.
San Diego Padres
World Series Odds: +1200
National League Winner Odds: +650
The San Diego Padres' offense looks like it’s finally tapping into the breakout many expected. The Friars sit in eighth in expected batting average at .259, a full seven points higher than their actual .252 mark — a gap that screams positive regression. That number has already begun climbing, putting them eighth in MLB. Over the past month, the bats have been solid: over the last month, San Diego ranks in the top 10 in runs per game (4.8), while posting the league’s eighth-best batting average at .256 and a .335 OBP that also sits eighth. This lineup is heating up at the right time.
San Diego's biggest strength could be in the bullpen, where they lead MLB in ERA (3.11), wins (39), WHIP (1.16), and opponents' batting average (.214). The Padres' 43 saves as a team also pace the league, showing their dominance in close games. They lead the National League with 27 wins in one-run contests.
The Friars strengthened that bullpen by bringing in former Athletics closer Mason Miller at the trade deadline. All Miller has done is allow two earned runs in 11 innings, while striking out 19 in his short Padres career. He's part of a dominant pen that already features NL saves leader Robert Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada, and Jason Adam.
If the starters can hold down the fort, San Diego is a sneaky good play at +1200.
Toronto Blue Jays
World Series Odds: +1100
American League Winner Odds: +410
The Toronto Blue Jays lineup has been one of the steadiest forces in baseball. The Jays lead MLB in batting average (.268) by a comfortable margin and have been even hotter lately with a league-best .287 mark over the past month. They also pace the league in on-base percentage (.337). Toronto sits third in OPS (.766), behind only the mighty New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, who only happen to have Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani crushing baseballs for them.
The advanced profile matches the surface stats: Toronto owns the league’s top expected batting average (.271), while placing fifth in xwOBA (.341) and sixth in xSLG (.443). That combination of contact skills and power efficiency makes the Jays a lineup built to score against any pitching staff come October.
Speaking of pitching staffs, Toronto may have the most experienced rotation in baseball. Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Shane Bieber have years of MLB service, playoff time and Cy Youngs between them.
While the bullpen is a little shaky, Toronto has an elite combination of starting pitching and offense that will profile well in the postseason. At better than 10-to-1, it's a play I'm comfortable laying down.
New York Mets
World Series Odds: +1500
National League Winner Odds: +850
The New York Mets are starting to look like a legitimate World Series dark horse. With Pete Alonso, Juan Soto, Brandon Nimmo, and Francisco Lindor anchoring the order, this lineup is relentless — deep, disciplined, and punishing. The analytics back it up: New York ranks third in expected slugging (.463), first in xwOBA (.349), and leads MLB in hard-hit rate (46.0%). They’re also top-three in barrel rate (10.5%) and average exit velocity (90.6 MPH). Pair those metrics with a .759 OPS and top-10 run production, and you’ve got an offense built to overwhelm even October’s best arms.
It's New York's arms, at least the starting ones, that will have to step up in the playoffs. Despite ranking 11th with a 3.88 ERA among starters, they don't have a legit ace. The likes of Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, and David Peterson will be tasked with getting the ball to New York's bolstered bullpen.
Adding last year's saves leader, Ryan Helsley, and Tyler Rogers (1.90 ERA) at the trade deadline to join elite closer Edwin Diaz was an exercise in building a shutdown pen to give opposing teams little chance to come back after six innings.
At +1500, the Mets are tied for 10th on the World Series odds boards. With a lineup that can bang with anyone and a dominant bullpen, this team could make noise in the playoffs.
Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily MLB Game Picks and MLB Prop Picks.
