MLB Wild Card Top 5 Longshots Today: Tuesday Night’s Picks (September 30)

The MLB Wild Card stage brings no shortage of intrigue, and tonight’s slate offers some juicy longshot betting angles. From power bats capable of flipping a game with one swing, to elite arms who can dominate the strike zone, and even speedsters who change outcomes on the basepaths, these plays give bettors a chance at big value.

We’re breaking down the Primetime matchups as the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees etch another chapter in their longtime, fierce rivalry, while the Cincinnati Reds and Los Angeles Dodgers may be starting a new rivalry altogether. 

For our purposes, we are considering anything above +250 as a longshot play. Let’s dive into our top five. 

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Where to Watch Red Sox vs Yankees 

• Ballpark: Yankee Stadium 
• Location: The Bronx, New York
• Where to Watch: ESPN
• Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
• Time: 6:08 p.m. ET
• Spread: NYY -1.5 (+164) | Total: 7
• Moneyline: BOS +114 | NYY -134

BOS vs NYY Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Longshot Bet 1: Alex Bregman Home Run +500

Alex Bregman has a terrific profile to pull off this longshot play for us tonight. While Bregman had a sluggish end to the season, he still hit 18 home runs in just 114 games and finished with his best OPS since 2019 at .821. He was also a better hitter away from home, slugging .504, 90 points better than at Fenway, recording a .876 OPS, over 110 points higher than in Boston, and swatting 12 home runs.

Furthering his case, the former Houston Astro punished the Yankees this season to the tune of a .357 average, .500 slugging percentage, .938 OPS, and a home run in seven meetings. More importantly, Bregman has also torched tonight’s starter, Max Fried. The LSU alum sports a .385 average, .615 slugging percentage, and a home run in 17 career plate appearances against the southpaw. Fried isn’t the only lefty Bregman has lit up, as he has stellar numbers against LHP this season. His .319 average against lefties is more than 60 points higher than facing right-handers this season, while his .421 OBP and .855 OPS splits are also elite.

He’s also hit the Yankees well in general. Bregman sports a .357 average, .500 slugging percentage, .938 OPS, and a home run in seven games against New York this season. Perhaps even more impressive has been his showing in the Bronx, where he hit .438 with a 1.026 OPS, going 7-16 over a four-game span in 2025.

You really couldn’t ask for a better matchup for Bregman to knock one out of hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium tonight. If your risk tolerance isn’t so high, you could always grab him for a two-hit night at +230, where he stands as the favorite on the board.

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Longshot Bet 2: Garrett Crochet 10+ Strikeouts +270

Garrett Crochet is going to come up just short of winning his first Cy Young award, thanks to a slightly more masterful season for Tarik Skubal. That is not to say Crochet’s campaign wasn’t of Cy Young-caliber, as the Red Sox ace was dominant nearly every time out in 2025. We’re banking on him being his top-shelf dominant version tonight. 

Crochet led Major League Baseball with 255 strikeouts this season, or 7.96 per game, or 11.2 Ks per nine innings. Not only is he a workhorse, leading the American League with 205.1 innings, but he can also pile up strikeouts in shorter appearances. In fact, the last time the former Chicago White Sox ace went into double-digit Ks was when he went six innings against these very Yankees two weeks ago, ringing up 12. It was the eighth time Crochet had at least 10 strikeouts this season, and you can pile on another six starts where the sizzling southpaw struck out at least nine. 

The 26-year-old doesn’t have just one dominant outing against the Yankees under his belt. In fact, every time Crochet has faced the Bronx Bombers, they’ve bombed, but in the movie release way. His last time at Yankee Stadium in late August, Crochet fanned 11 while going seven strong. Before that, he nearly went complete, holding the Yankees to four hits and one run over 8.1 innings, while striking out seven, and in his first start of the year against New York, Crochet sat down nine via the strikeout. When you put it all together, Boston’s starter sports a 3-0 record, 2.90 ERA, 0.87, .200 opponents’ batting average, and 45 strikeouts in 31 innings in his career vs the Yanks.

In addition to his traditional stats, Crochet has been an analytics darling in 2025. The former Tennessee Volunteer ranks in the top seven percent of Major League pitchers with a 31.3% K rate, to go along with a 29.4% whiff rate that lands in the top 22 percent of big league arms. His average fastball velocity of 96.3 MPH is in the top 18 percent of the league, and his pitching run value score of 34 is ultra elite, in baseball’s top one percent.

Let’s also not forget the Yankees were third in the league in strikeouts this season, fanning a hair over nine times a game. They were also sixth with a 26.4% whiff rate, so you know they are free swingers.

His resume speaks for itself, especially his success against the Yankees, making this a strong longshot play for tonight.

Longshot Bet 3: Jose Caballero Stolen Base +310

The fact that we are getting the Major League’s top stolen base threat at this kind of price is an absolute gift and well worth jumping all over. Jose Caballero led the league with 49 swipes this season, five more than any other player, and he did it nearly half the at-bats. The former Tampa Bay Ray had just 314 ABs, making his stolen base percentage unreal. It took second-place swiper Jose Ramirez 593 at-bats over 158 games to come up with 44 steals, while Caballero beat him by five in just 126 games.

Like most base stealers, Caballero certainly has not been graced with the gift of a booming bat. With a .236 batting average and .686 OPS, he is certainly not making any pitcher shake in his cleats. That said, Caballero has some decent underlying metrics. The utility man sported a walk rate of 12.7% in 2025, landing him in the top 10 percent of baseball. Caballero also boasts a baserunning run value score of five, which puts him in the top seven percent of hitters. Even if the multi-positional player doesn’t crack the starting lineup, you can pretty much guarantee he will be in there as a pinch runner at some point, most likely in a stolen base-type scenario.

Boston actually ended up in the top 10, allowing 0.77 stolen bases per game in 2025. Red Sox starter Garrett Crochet gave up 27 swipes himself, the 19th-most in MLB this season. His battery mate, catcher Carlos Narvaez, had the third-most stolen base attempts in baseball with 83 this year, allowing 59 steals.

With a +310 price tag and many factors leaning in his favor, Caballero is a solid longshot play.

Where to Watch Reds vs Dodgers

• Ballpark: Dodger Stadium
• Location: Los Angeles, California
• Where to Watch: ESPN
• Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
• Time: 9:08 p.m. ET
• Spread: LAD -1.5 (+114) | Total: 7
• Moneyline: CIN +164 | LAD -196

CIN vs LAD Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Longshot Bet 4: Max Muncy Home Run +350

When Max Muncy is healthy, he is always a threat to go deep. The longtime Dodgers third baseman missed the final handful of games of the regular season with a lower-body injury, but he’s good to go tonight against the Reds, and we are rolling with him.

Muncy finished 2025 with 19 home runs in just 313 at-bats over 100 games. His .470 slugging percentage and .846 OPS further exemplify his power and the kind of stick Muncy is swinging. The Baylor alum’s advanced metrics paint an even prettier picture. Muncy’s xSLG number of .522, which puts him in MLB’s top eight percent, shows that he’s just scratched the surface of his power potential this season. Add to that an xwOBA of .388, which lands him in the top five percent of hitters, and you can start to get an idea of what kind of bat you are dealing with here. Muncy’s hard-hit rate of 51.5% puts him in baseball’s top eight percent, and his barrel rate of 13.6% lands in the upper 16 percent.

The 35-year-old slugger has already had some success against Reds starter Hunter Greene. With a home run under his belt to go with a pair of singles in five career at-bats against Greene, Muncy has gotten the better of the young fireballer so far. The young hurler has shown some propensity to get hurt by the long ball, allowing 15 home runs in just 19 starts (107.2 IP) this season. Greene isn’t the only Reds pitcher Muncy has had success against. In fact, the Dodgers vet has five career home runs against Cincinnati in 32 career meetings. Not a bad little ratio for our pick tonight.

Being a longtime member of the Dodgers means plenty of playoff appearances for Muncy, and he hasn’t disappointed in the power category. The former Oakland Athletic has 10 postseason home runs over 44 games, including three in last year’s World Series run by the Dodgers.

Outside of Shohei Ohtani, Muncy is the top man on the home run odds board tonight for this Reds-Dodgers matchup, and at +350, it’s worth the risk.  

Longshot Bet 5: Blake Snell to Go 6 Up 6 Down to Start Game +320

I like this play for Blake Snell because he doesn’t have to go deep into the game to get it. The two-time Cy Young award winner rarely goes seven innings or more, lasting that long just twice this season. Rather than taking one of his alternate strikeout total overs, like 9.5+ at +280, which he may need to go deep to get, this play can be wrapped up tidily after the first two innings of the game.

Snell certainly has the stuff to sit down six straight to start Game 1. His 2.35 ERA and 72 strikeouts in 61.1 innings add to the proof of that. The former San Diego Padre’s advanced metrics only add to his case. Snell sports a 33.9% chase rate, landing him in baseball’s top five percent, while his 35.6% whiff rate is in the top four percent. The veteran lefty also limits quality contact. Snell’s 34% hard hit rate is in the top eight percent of big league hurlers, and his 5.8% barrel rate lands in the upper 14 percent.

While Snell did not face the Reds this season, you can bet everyone in this Cincinnati lineup remembers him well; some might even be having nightmares about him. You see, Blake Snell not only blanked the Reds in his only start against them last year, he no-hit them, for his first career no-no last August. While he sat down a bunch of Reds that day, including striking out the side in the first, he did allow the fifth batter of the game to reach via the walk, just missing out on retiring the first six batters faced. Of the Reds’ possible first six hitters, only Miguel Andujar has had any success against Snell, with a .308 batting average. TJ Friedl, Gavin Lux, Austin Hays, and Elly De La Cruz are all hitless in their careers against LA’s starter, while Spencer Steer has gone 1-6 with four strikeouts, and Noelvi Marte has never matched up with Snell.

Never mind just against Snell, but the Reds in general were not a good offense in 2025. Their .245 batting average ranked 19th in baseball, while Cincy’s .391 slugging percentage ranked 21st. The Reds’ .245 expected batting average was the fifth-lowest in the league, while their .360 xwOBACON ranked second-to-last. Cincinnati made contact with only 7.2% of barrels, the third-worst mark in MLB, while its 38.2% hard hit rate was the third-lowest in the bigs.

This is a fun play that profiles as very possible tonight. Given the Reds’ overall offensive struggles and history against Snell, a quick six-up, six-down is a good play at this price.

MLB Wild Card Top Longshot Bets for Tuesday

• Alex Bregman Home Run +500
• Garrett Crochet 10+ Strikeouts +270
• Jose Caballero Stolen Base +310
• Max Muncy Home Run +350
• Blake Snell 6 Up 6 Down to Start Game +320

If you are looking for a big payoff, one of these five options is your huckleberry. The big value lies with Bregman, while Crochet’s strikeout prop seems the most likely. If you are looking for an even bigger payoff, these plays pay out at a whopping +171928 when parlayed together. On that wild lottery ticket, $10 would fetch you over 17 grand. Hey, it’s probably more fun than playing the Powerball.