Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates and MLB Game Insights
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Saturday Matchup: Ranger Suárez of the Philadelphia Phillies vs. Andrew Heaney of the Pittsburgh Pireates
The Phillies host the Pirates in a Saturday showdown between in-state rivals, featuring a battle of two left-handers trending in opposite directions. Suárez, arguably the best pitcher in baseball not named Paul Skenes this season, takes the mound for the Phillies against Heaney, a crafty but volatile southpaw whose leash is growing thinner with each start.
Suárez has been dominant in 2025, carrying a sub-2.00 ERA into June with elite ground ball rates, pinpoint control, and consistent deep outings. Even without full offensive support—Bryce Harper (injured list) and Kyle Schwarber (power outage)—Suárez remains a near-lock for quality ratios and high fantasy value.
Heaney, meanwhile, draws a tough Phillies lineup even if it’s not at full strength. Though the Phils’ bats are cooling off, Heaney has been unreliable in high-leverage spots and is not a recommended start outside of deep-league desperation.
📊 Betting Breakdown: Odds, Totals & Picks
Moneyline:
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Phillies: -165
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Pirates: +140
Run Line:
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Phillies -1.5 (+130)
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Pirates +1.5 (-150)
Total Runs: 8.0 (Over -105 / Under -115)
🔎 Trends & Edges
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Phillies are 9-1 in Suárez’s last 10 starts
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Pirates are averaging 2.9 runs/game in Skenes’ starts
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Under has hit in 7 of the last 9 Pirates road games
💰 Best Bets
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Under 8.0 Runs (-115)
Neither team is swinging the bats particularly well, and with two lefties on the mound, expect muted scoring—especially early. -
First 5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-120)
Suárez is nails out of the gate, and Heaney could benefit from facing a depleted Philly lineup. -
Ranger Suárez to Record a Win (+140)
Suárez hasn’t been rewarded as often as he deserves, but this is a spot where he should work deep and the Phillies can provide just enough support.
👀 Sunday Lookahead: Paul Skenes vs. Cristopher Sánchez
The weekend closes with a must-watch matchup: Skenes vs. Sánchez. Skenes has looked like the best pitcher in MLB, boasting electric velocity, a wipeout slider, and an absurd K/BB ratio. But as Jayson Stark noted this week, the Pirates just don’t score for him. Skenes is routinely leaving games tied 2–2, racking up no-decisions through no fault of his own.
Cristopher Sánchez has quietly been outstanding as well, especially at home. He’s striking out over a batter per inning with vastly improved command. In fantasy, both arms are must-starts, even if neither is guaranteed a win.
Prediction: Phillies take Saturday, Pirates bounce back behind Skenes on Sunday.
🧢 Fantasy Spotlight
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Suárez: Elite ratios, high win equity, and favorable park conditions make him a top-10 SP every week.
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Heaney: Pass unless you’re in a 15+ team league and desperate.
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Sánchez: Underrated fantasy weapon. A great play in both roto and points formats.
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Skenes: No hesitation—start him every outing. Even without wins, the Ks and WHIP are gold.
📦 Series Outlook: Classic Pitching, Light Offense
This isn’t a high-octane offensive series—expect tight, strategic ballgames. With Bryce Harper potentially out, the Phillies may lean on Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, and small ball to get the job done. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s youth movement is all about Skenes and little else.
If you’re betting:
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Lean under both games
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Back Suárez today and Skenes tomorrow
🔚 Final Thoughts
The battle of Pennsylvania might not be flashy, but it’s a goldmine for fantasy pitching value and betting unders. With two of the National League’s most effective left-handers squaring off Saturday and a rookie sensation on deck Sunday, it’s must-watch—even if the runs are few and far between.
Play the Under, ride Suárez, and don’t fade Skenes—no matter what the line says.
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