Ranking the Top 5 Value Bets for the 2024 World Series
Grant White
Host · Writer
1. Cleveland Guardians
There's no valid explanation for why the American League-leading Cleveland Guardians should be this far down the World Series futures board. Positioned for a first-round bye, with top-end metrics on both sides of the ball, Cleveland is the bet everyone should make for the second half of the season.
The Guardians are listed significantly behind the Baltimore Orioles (+700) and New York Yankees (+550) despite owning a better record than their AL counterparts. Moreover, they have a less obstructed path to the playoffs and have comparable pitching and hitting metrics.
Cleveland isn't getting the respect it deserves. Their lineup has come to life in 2024, and their pitching remains the same playoff-winning quality it has been for years. The Guardians deserve better than this, but bettors can still capitalize on the perceived imbalance.
5. Tampa Bay Rays
It seems almost criminal that the Tampa Bay Rays are this far back on the futures board at the halfway point of the season. Sitting just 5.5 back of an AL wild-card berth and having made the playoffs in five straight seasons, the betting price doesn't match the Rays' playoff prospects.
Tampa Bay has recently shifted gears, winning seven of nine series ahead of the All-Star break and starting to get better production both offensively and from its pitchers. Over the past month, their OPS has jumped to .740, a far cry from their .681 season-long benchmark. Likewise, their team ERA has fallen from 4.20 to 3.35,
Consider these analogous positions. Tampa Bay is 5.5 back in the wild card race and priced as distant +15000 longshots. The Houston Astros need to make up 1.0 games in the AL West or 3.5 games in the wild card race and are a much less compelling +2000.
The Rays are the definition of value and should see their price tumble after the break as they look to extend their playoff streak.
4. San Diego Padres
The National League wild card race is wide open at the turn. In addition to the three teams currently occupying a postseason berth, six other franchises are within 3.5 games of a playoff spot. With that comes undeniable value, including the San Diego Padres, currently priced at +4000 to win it all.
Starting pitching has been a limiting factor for the Padres at times this season, but we're beginning to see the best they have to offer. Dylan Cease has improved his standing over the past couple of starts, while Matt Waldron has emerged as the staff ace.
With Fernando Tatis Jr. and Joe Musgrove primed to return to the lineup, we will see just how hard the Padres can swing. As previously discussed, we like their chances of causing a ruckus in the second half.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks are in a comparable position to the Padres, albeit with a more enticing gambling price. Like San Diego, the D-Backs are 1.0 games out of a wild-card spot and could overtake one of the teams ahead of them in short order.
As usual, Arizona is getting things done with its bats to stay afloat. Heading into the unofficial second half of the season, the D-Backs sit ninth in slugging percentage and fifth in on-base percentage, yielding the second-most runs in the majors. There's no stopping that momentum as the season progresses.
Arizona has maintained its position despite working with a patchwork rotation. As their starters return to the lineup, we should start to see the magic that makes this team the defending National League Champions. For now, bettors can still lick their chops at the intriguing +5000 price on the World Series futures board.
2. Kansas City Royals
Sportsbooks seem to have already written off the Kansas City Royals from the playoff picture, a mistake they may soon regret. Sitting 2.0 games back of a wild card berth, the Kansas City Royals should mount a charge up the standings immediately following the All-Star break.
Four of KC's next five series come against teams with losing records. Until the start of August, they face the Chicago White Sox twice, the Detroit Tigers, the Chicago Cubs, and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Further, three of those five series come in the friendly confines of Kauffman Stadium. That leaves the Royals with a team-friendly schedule they can wield to their advantage in the AL playoff race.
The Royals can follow a similar path to the D-Backs last year. Although sportsbooks are discounting their chances, bettors should not. Kansas City is worthy of investment in the futures market.
1. Cleveland Guardians
There's no valid explanation for why the American League-leading Cleveland Guardians should be this far down the World Series futures board. Positioned for a first-round bye, with top-end metrics on both sides of the ball, Cleveland is the bet everyone should make for the second half of the season.
The Guardians are listed significantly behind the Baltimore Orioles (+700) and New York Yankees (+550) despite owning a better record than their AL counterparts. Moreover, they have a less obstructed path to the playoffs and have comparable pitching and hitting metrics.
Cleveland isn't getting the respect it deserves. Their lineup has come to life in 2024, and their pitching remains the same playoff-winning quality it has been for years. The Guardians deserve better than this, but bettors can still capitalize on the perceived imbalance.
5. Tampa Bay Rays
It seems almost criminal that the Tampa Bay Rays are this far back on the futures board at the halfway point of the season. Sitting just 5.5 back of an AL wild-card berth and having made the playoffs in five straight seasons, the betting price doesn't match the Rays' playoff prospects.
Tampa Bay has recently shifted gears, winning seven of nine series ahead of the All-Star break and starting to get better production both offensively and from its pitchers. Over the past month, their OPS has jumped to .740, a far cry from their .681 season-long benchmark. Likewise, their team ERA has fallen from 4.20 to 3.35,
Consider these analogous positions. Tampa Bay is 5.5 back in the wild card race and priced as distant +15000 longshots. The Houston Astros need to make up 1.0 games in the AL West or 3.5 games in the wild card race and are a much less compelling +2000.
The Rays are the definition of value and should see their price tumble after the break as they look to extend their playoff streak.
