Robert Suarez’s Uncertain Role in the San Diego Padres’ Season

Robert Suarez: Can the Padres Closer Hold Down the Job in 2025?

The Betting Angle: Is Suarez Worth the Gamble?

Relief pitching is one of the most volatile betting and fantasy baseball positions, and Suarez is a prime example heading into the 2025 MLB season. Currently tabbed as the Padres’ closer, Suarez has the potential to rack up saves but comes with serious question marks. His strikeout rate (59 Ks in 2024) isn’t elite, and the offseason chatter around him hasn’t exactly inspired confidence.

The Padres’ closer job has built-in value given their competitive roster, but bettors and fantasy managers need to ask: Will Suarez hold the role all season, or is he a trade candidate? With San Diego’s financial concerns, a midseason move could shake up his value entirely.

Job Security: Can He Hold Down the Ninth?

San Diego has already dealt with injury issues in the bullpen, with Matt Waldron’s oblique injury creating early-season depth concerns. That could make Suarez even more important in the short term. However, trusting him as a long-term closer is a risky proposition. If he struggles early, the Padres could pivot to a committee approach or even trade him.

Potential threats to his job security include:

• Tom Cosgrove – A lefty with excellent control who could see high-leverage work.

• Adrián Morejón – If healthy, he has the stuff to close games.

• Trade Deadline Uncertainty – Suarez could be dealt, and if he lands on a team without a clear ninth-inning need, he may not be closing.

Performance Concerns: A Closer You Can Trust?

Suarez’s raw stuff is good, but not dominant. His 2024 season featured inconsistent command, and while his ERA remained respectable, he wasn’t overpowering. The bigger issue? His lack of elite strikeout numbers compared to other closers. In an era where relievers need swing-and-miss ability, Suarez falls short of the elite class.

• 2024 Stats: 59 Ks, 3.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 22 saves

• Projected 2025 Line: 60-65 Ks, 3.50-3.80 ERA, 25-30 saves (if he keeps the role)

If you’re investing in Suarez in fantasy or betting on him to lead the NL in saves, you better be comfortable with risk.

Trade Market Watch: Will Suarez Be Moved?

There’s significant speculation that the Padres could move Suarez at the trade deadline as part of a broader cost-cutting effort. The closer market is always in flux, and contending teams often look for bullpen reinforcements in July.

If Suarez is traded:

• Best-case scenario: He lands with a team that needs a closer.

• Worst-case scenario: He becomes a setup man and loses fantasy and betting value.

Final Verdict: Buy or Sell Suarez in 2025?

Suarez is a classic high-risk, high-reward closer option. If you’re betting on him to finish the year among the save leaders, there’s a strong chance of disappointment given his shaky job security and potential trade status.

• Buying: If you believe in his role stability and think the Padres will remain competitive.

• Selling: If you’re worried about a midseason trade or job loss.

For now, Suarez sits in the middle tier of closers, making him a speculative but shaky bet. Proceed with caution.

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