MLB · 1 year ago

Should the Dodgers be Concerned About Tight NL West?

Sportsgrid Staff

Host · Writer

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Should the Dodgers be Concerned About Tight NL West?
The battle for dominance in the National League West is heating up.

Surprisingly, the Los Angeles Dodgers, often seen as a "super team," have not yet clinched their eleventh division title in the past 12 years, defying preseason predictions.

While it's still likely they could secure the title—FanGraphs gives them a 73.1% chance of winning the NL West as of August 11—this percentage isn't the highest in their league, nor is it the highest in baseball.

In comparison, the Milwaukee Brewers are almost certain to win the NL Central again, with a 92.5% probability according to FanGraphs. The Philadelphia Phillies are also strong contenders in the NL East, with an 88.3% chance of victory.

Thus, among the three leading teams in the National League divisions, the Dodgers appear to be the most at risk as we reach mid-August.

Is it time for Los Angeles to worry about an NL West contest that might be too tight for comfort?

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Injury Concerns
Injuries have plagued even the most robust and skilled teams, and the Dodgers are no exception this season.

There's been a growing list of injured Dodgers pitchers, including Walker Buehler, Dustin May, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Buehler and Yamamoto are slated to return this season, with Buehler possibly pitching as soon as this week in Milwaukee. Meanwhile, Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw are ongoing injury concerns, though they remain healthy at the moment.

Fortunately, the Dodgers boosted their rotation by acquiring Jack Flaherty from the Detroit Tigers at the trade deadline, helping to mitigate the depletion. Yet, even as injured players return, questions linger about how much Buehler and Yamamoto can be pushed after their lengthy recoveries.

The lineup has also suffered, missing Mookie Betts for several months. The return of these players will bolster their lineup.

Despite these setbacks, the Dodgers have endured a tough season. These injuries have definitely slowed their momentum in recent weeks. However, as Los Angeles fights through these challenges, the competition around them is intensifying.
The Streaking Competitors
This issue may currently be the most urgent for the Dodgers.

Despite any reinforcements Los Angeles might gain in the remaining month and a half of the season due to injuries, it won't affect the strong performances by division competitors in Arizona and San Diego. Notably, the Padres have reduced the Dodgers' lead to just 3.5 games, and the Diamondbacks are also now only 3.5 games behind.

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San Diego Padres
Particularly notable are the Padres, who have lost only four games since the All-Star break. They swept the Dodgers in San Diego at the end of July and have solidified their position in a wild card spot, one they seem unlikely to give up given their current momentum.

It’s important to highlight that these two rivals will clash again in a crucial three-game series at Dodger Stadium from September 24 to 26. This matchup could play a decisive role in the division race if the Padres maintain their close pursuit.

A key factor supporting the Padres' chances is the imminent return of several key players from injuries. Ace pitcher Joe Musgrove returned on Monday, and superstar outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr., along with left-handed reliever Wandy Peralta, who was an important acquisition last winter, are also on the comeback trail.

Additionally, rookie Jackson Merrill has emerged as a critical hitter in tight situations. However, the Padres are not the only challenge the Dodgers face at this time.
Arizona Diamondbacks
We shouldn't overlook the Arizona Diamondbacks' achievements against the Dodgers in last season’s playoffs: they swept the three-game Division Series and captured their first National League pennant since 2001.

Given this history, Arizona remains a formidable contender, especially as they trail Los Angeles by just 3.5 games as of August 11.

A key similarity also emerges: the return from injuries.

Arizona has several key players nearing a comeback, including starter Merrill Kelly, who pitched against the Phillies on Sunday, and rotation colleagues Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez.

First baseman Christian Walker is anticipated to return in August from an oblique strain, and although trade deadline addition Josh Bell has been performing well, the potential return of catcher Gabriel Moreno in 2024 would be a significant boost.

With the Diamondbacks nearing full strength by late August, they pose a serious threat to the Dodgers' hold on the National League West. Like the Padres, Arizona will have another crucial encounter with Los Angeles, a four-game series at Chase Field from August 30 to September 2.
The Verdict
To a certain extent, they should be concerned.

At the beginning of the season, few anticipated a tight race in the NL West, especially with the Dodgers assembling a "super team" through major acquisitions.

However, credit is due to the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks. Both teams have overcome significant early-season challenges to make this division race captivating as the season progresses.

It’s uncertain whether both teams can maintain their current performance level, but there’s no doubt: San Diego and Arizona are shaping up to be strong postseason contenders in October.

All three teams, including the Dodgers, anticipate the return of several key players from injuries during the season. This is crucial as it means all teams have the potential to strengthen before the playoffs begin. Hence, the injury situation is somewhat leveled among the Dodgers, Padres, and Diamondbacks, diluting any injury-related excuses.

While the odds still favor the Dodgers to win another NL West title, perhaps it's wise to hold off on confirming that outcome with certainty for now.

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
SPORTSGRID SBC AWARDS 24
Should the Dodgers be Concerned About Tight NL West?
The battle for dominance in the National League West is heating up.

Surprisingly, the Los Angeles Dodgers, often seen as a "super team," have not yet clinched their eleventh division title in the past 12 years, defying preseason predictions.

While it's still likely they could secure the title—FanGraphs gives them a 73.1% chance of winning the NL West as of August 11—this percentage isn't the highest in their league, nor is it the highest in baseball.

In comparison, the Milwaukee Brewers are almost certain to win the NL Central again, with a 92.5% probability according to FanGraphs. The Philadelphia Phillies are also strong contenders in the NL East, with an 88.3% chance of victory.

Thus, among the three leading teams in the National League divisions, the Dodgers appear to be the most at risk as we reach mid-August.

Is it time for Los Angeles to worry about an NL West contest that might be too tight for comfort?

Have all the intel you need? Free actionable info is one click away! Sign up for our daily newsletter.

Should the Dodgers be Concerned About Tight NL West?

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