MLB · 1 year ago

Tigers vs. Mariners Predictions | MLB Picks Today, Best Bets

Sportsgrid Staff

Host · Writer

Tigers vs. Mariners Predictions | MLB Picks Today, Best Bets

Yesterday was weird. The Guardians game got postponed. The Orioles scratched Grayson Rodriguez five minutes before the game for Albert Suarez, and he dominated. I couldn’t believe how bad the Orioles looked against Bassitt. Thankfully, the Rockies came through, and I finally defeated the final boss, Grimace. We took no losses nor wins yesterday; it was just some free entertainment.

2024 Record: 95-99 (-7.18 U)

Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners @ 9:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Tarik Skubal (2.57 ERA) vs. George Kirby (3.04 ERA)

They tried making this total as low as possible, but it wasn’t low enough. These two pitchers deserve one of the lowest totals of the season, and so do the offenses. We are due for a classic 1-0 pitcher’s duel, and in the most prominent pitcher’s park in baseball, I think we get it.

Skubal and Kirby. They are two of the best young pitchers in the game. Skubal is the favorite to win the CY Young in the American League, and Kirby is having another phenomenal season.

The Tigers lineup has fallen flat on its face. It’s not their fault, as their best hitter, Riley Greene, has been hurt since July 25th. Kerry Carpenter has been out of the lineup for a while, their second-best hitter. That’s important against Kirby, as his OPS against lefties is much higher than against righties. This current lineup looks like a window into next year, with some fun and exciting young players.

Since the All-Star break ended, the Tigers have a 74 wRC+ against right-handers, the third-worst in the league. Over the last two weeks, it’s been even worse, dropping to a 60 wRC+, and the team has averaged under three runs per game in that span.

A lot of this Tigers lineup is young and has yet to face Kirby, but the veterans have, and they have two hits in 14 ABs. It’s a small sample, but nothing in the data tells me Kirby can’t dominate today. He has a 2.52 ERA in home games and a 2.57 ERA during night games. In these spots, he shows up for his team significantly. I project him at six innings with one run allowed.

Tarik Skubal is arguably the best left-handed pitcher on the planet. I shouldn’t have to list all the reasons why he’s so good; we all know it. He gets a lineup that is still without Julio Rodriguez and JP Crawford. They also might be without Justin Turner, who prefers lefties. He got hit on the hand yesterday and was taken out. X-rays were negative, but I wouldn’t want to face Skubal with a beat-up hand.

The Mariners have also been terrible against lefties since the All-Star break, with a 78 wRC+. They also haven’t seen Skubal this year, but when the current roster did, they posted a .282 xwOBA. Pitiful.

Another reason I love this under is that Skubal is coming off a rough start, allowing five earned to the Royals. The last time he allowed five earned runs in a start, he came right back around and shut out the Phillies over seven innings, and that’s when the Phillies were hot. I will ride into battle with Skubal off a bad start. I project Skubal for much of the same: six innings of one-run ball.

Both starters will exit to rested bullpens with key arms available. The Mariners bullpen has been throwing like a top-five unit, and their six favorite arms are all rested and ready to go. I see the Tigers putting up at most two runs in this game.

On the Tigers side, they have Tyler Holton and Jason Foley ready to go, as well as Will Vest and Alex Faedo if needed. I doubt many of them are necessary with Skubal’s length, but all quality arms can hold down the Mariners in the late innings.

We also have the wind blowing in, projected at 8 MPH at game time. It’s the best pitching park in the majors, with two elite starters, two reeling offenses, and two bullpens in a good spot. These super low totals have been going over, but this is the one that stays under. One of these pitching staffs has the upside to shut out one side completely, and both have a great shot at limiting to 2-3 runs.