NBA · 3 months ago

2025 NBA Finals: Thunder at Pacers Game 4 SGP | Prediction, Picks and Props

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

2025 NBA Finals: Thunder at Pacers Game 4 SGP | Prediction, Picks and Props

While many called this year’s NBA Finals to be the Oklahoma City Thunder in five or even four games, they forgot to tell the Indiana Pacers. Indiana defended its homecourt in Game 3 and has no problem telling the Thunder they will not back down. We suddenly have a legit series, but my approach will remain the same.

After riding an impressive SGP streak in Oklahoma City playoff games, it’s time we get back into the win column after a few stumbles in the NBA Finals.

Let’s get it.

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Top Props: OKC | IND | Best Bets: Game 4 | Series

Thunder vs Pacers Game 4 Info & Where to Watch

Location: Gainbridge FieldHouse
Where to Watch: ABC
Where to Stream: Fubo, ABC.com, ESPN App
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Thunder -6 | Total: 225.5
Moneyline: Thunder -230 | Pacers +190

Leg 1: Thunder Moneyline (-230)

After taking Oklahoma at a better price of -215 in Game 3, I’m getting back on my horse named Thunder and riding the moneyline once again.

OKC does not drop back-to-back games. Outside of losing two in a row late in the season when they already had the West wrapped up, the Thunder hadn’t seen two straight defeats since November. They’ve bounced back after a loss all year long, including in these playoffs. More often than not, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and crew made a statement after tasting defeat in the postseason. Following a Game 2 loss to the Denver Nuggets in the second round, they came up with a 43-point blowout. A Game 6 loss in the same series was answered with a 32-point thumping in the set decider. Even in these Finals, OKC clapped back with a 16-point beating after dropping the opener.

Point is, Mark Daigneault and his staff are elite at making adjustments. In a game where they let Indiana back in it after leading in the final frame, best believe adjustments are coming. The Thunder were 61-2 when leading going into the fourth quarter in the regular season, and despite not showing that closing mentality as strongly in the playoffs, they’ll settle back to the norm in Game 4. Seeing OKC come up shoot 35% for an 18-point fourth, never mind any quarter, is an unlikely phenomenon to happen again.

The top team in these playoffs in creating and avoiding turnovers will get back to their active ways on Friday night and use both skills to their advantage to make Indiana uncomfortable. Also, don’t forget that the Thunder are an elite road team with an .800 winning percentage away from home in the regular season. There’s nothing like being a super pest in someone else’s house.

OKC’s ATS record in the playoffs (2-4 in past six) has been underwhelming, while the Pacers keep covering (four of past six), so sticking to the moneyline, rather than the six-point spread, is the way to go for our opening leg.

Expect the cream to rise to the top in Game 4.

OKC vs IND Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Leg 2: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 Points (-128)

After a somewhat pedestrian night, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in a prime bounce-back position for himself and his team. For anyone else, 24 points on 45% shooting is a good day at the office, but for the league MVP, he’ll be looking to improve on his Game 3 showing. I expect that to be the case, and it’s just a bonus that his scoring prop is down a point from 34.5 on Wednesday.

A few things stand out from Shai’s Game 3 line, which should be corrected tonight. There is no way Indiana is going to be able to limit SGA to just six free-throw attempts again. The Canadian point guard got to the line nearly nine times a game in the regular season, and that number is a tick higher in this postseason. So, expect a few more points at the charity stripe in Game 4, especially in a game I expect Shai to come out very aggressively.

The other thing to note is that SGA went just 1-3 from beyond the arc on Wednesday. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 5.7 three-point attempts in the regular season and is shooting about five a game in the playoffs. An extra triple or two goes a long way when shooting for a 30+ point prop.

Finally, we have to look at SGA’s performances following a loss. The former 11th overall pick has scored at least 34 points every time but once following a defeat in these playoffs, including Game 2 against the Pacers. In those games, Shai has averaged nearly 36 points a night.

Don’t forget that the NBA regular-season scoring champ is also leading all scorers this postseason. Oh, and he also dropped 45 at Gainbridge FieldHouse earlier this season.

Leg 3: Cason Wallace Over 2.5 Reb (-140)

Cason Wallace has shown the Thunder that he is capable of playing meaningful minutes in these playoffs and the NBA Finals. Wallace has played 20 minutes or more in 15 games this postseason and has been trending up for court time. In those 20+ minute games, Wallace has pulled down at least two boards in all but one and went over this 2.5 prop 10 times. The former Kentucky standout has also eclipsed the number in each of his past two games.

In case you didn’t know, Indiana is not a very good team on the glass. The Pacers finished just 22nd in rebounds allowed in the regular season, giving up 45.0 boards per game. They are dead last among teams in these playoffs that played at least eight games, pulling down just 40 per game. During the regular season, Indiana ranked 28th, grabbing 41.8 boards a night.

Getting his most minutes (26.7 per game) of any series in these playoffs, Wallace is in a great position to grab at least three boards tonight.

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