NBA Best Bets: Top 2 Betting Picks for Wednesday, January 14
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Seven NBA games on the board for January 14, and the slate is loaded with schedule landmines: two home teams on the back end of a back-to-back (Chicago Bulls, New Orleans Pelicans), one road team on zero days rest (Denver Nuggets), and a couple of “are-they-in-or-out" injury situations that can swing a number fast (Philadelphia 76ers, Denver). We went 1-1 yesterday, but I’m not hiding from it – the bigger picture is what matters, and we’re still sitting on a 17-8 month (68.0%). Let’s keep pressing.
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Brooklyn Nets @ New Orleans Pelicans Matchup
- Arena: Smoothie King Center
- Location: New Orleans, LA
- Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 14, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
Brooklyn Nets vs. New Orleans Pelicans Betting Odds
- Spread: Brooklyn Nets -2.0 (-110) | New Orleans Pelicans +2.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Brooklyn Nets -128 | New Orleans Pelicans +106
Brooklyn Nets vs. New Orleans Pelicans Kalshi Odds
- Chance: Brooklyn Nets 53% | New Orleans Pelicans 46%
THE PICK: Brooklyn Nets -2.0 (3 units)
New Orleans is the kind of team I love fading when the schedule turns ugly, and tonight is precisely that: the Pelicans are on zero days rest on the back end of a back-to-back, and the schedule data says they’ve been a disaster in that exact spot, 4-19 with a -12.3 average margin in back-end back-to-backs since 2025, scoring 109.09 points per game while allowing 121.39. That’s not a “tired legs" angle, that’s a profile. Stack it with the recent form: New Orleans is 1-9 in their last ten with a brutal 2-8 against the spread run, while Brooklyn is at least holding the line at 5-5 against the spread over their last ten. And if you want the market sanity check, Kalshi has Brooklyn at 53% to win versus 46% for New Orleans, basically saying the Nets should be favored, and we’re only laying two. I’ll live with Brooklyn’s own high-frequency spot (they’re also in a three-games-in-four-days window), because New Orleans is in that same high-frequency bucket too, and their numbers there are ugly as well (34.38% win rate, -5.47 average margin). This is a fatigue fade with receipts.
Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks Matchup
- Arena: American Airlines Center
- Location: Dallas, TX
- Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 14, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds
- Spread: Dallas Mavericks -1.5 (-110) | Denver Nuggets +1.5 (-111)
- Moneyline: Dallas Mavericks -119 | Denver Nuggets -101
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Kalshi Odds
- Chance: Denver Nuggets 49% | Dallas Mavericks 50%
THE PICK: Denver Nuggets +1.5 (2 units)
I’m taking the points with Denver because the situational data says they’re built for this exact grind spot, even if the injury report is loud. Yes, the Nuggets are on zero days’ rest on the back end of a back-to-back, and they traveled 442.7 miles from the Smoothie King Center to the American Airlines Center. But here’s the thing: Denver has been elite on the second night of back-to-backs since 2025, going 16-6 with an average margin of +9.86, scoring 124.73 points per game and allowing 114.86. That’s a real edge, not a narrative. Meanwhile, Dallas is on the front end of a back-to-back, and their own front-end numbers are basically coin-flip (10-10, -0.65 average margin). Add in recent against-the-spread form: Dallas is 3-6-1 against the spread in their last ten, while Denver is 6-4 against the spread. The injuries are the swing factor; Nikola Jokic is listed OUT, and Dallas has a long list of its own (Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, and P.J. Washington all OUT). With the market basically calling this a toss-up (Kalshi 50% Dallas, 49% Denver) but still hanging Dallas -1.5, I’ll take the side with the stronger historical performance in the exact schedule pocket and grab the points.
The Betting Edge
- 3 units: Brooklyn Nets -2.0
- 2 units: Denver Nuggets +1.5
Two bets, two different games, one theme: I’m attacking the schedule. New Orleans has been a money-burning spot on back-to-backs, and Denver has been the opposite – even with the travel. Ride with me, or fade me, but don’t sit in the middle and complain about variance later. Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
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Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 14.
