NBA Prediction Kalshi Markets Movement & Wrap for Friday, January 9

Atlanta’s playoff qualification odds were the headline mover on Friday, collapsing from 54c at the open to 41c at the close, a 13-cent drop and a -24.07% move on the day. The volatility is likely tied to Trae Young’s recent trade to the Washington Wizards, a seismic roster shift that fundamentally alters Atlanta’s competitive outlook. The selloff was not isolated either. Chicago’s playoff qualification price also broke down hard, and the market’s trade complex around Anthony Davis lit up with both heavy volume and sharp repricing.

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Top movers that mattered

• Chicago’s playoff qualification odds: down 5 cents to 13c (from 19c open to 14c close, -26.32%). This is one of the cleanest “risk-off” moves on the board, and it came with meaningful activity (61,431 total contracts traded, 380 in the last 24 hours).
• Atlanta’s playoff qualification odds: down 13 cents to 45c (54c open to 41c close, -24.07%), on 613 contracts of 24-hour trading volume. The order book is also lopsided, with only 20 contracts bid at 45c on the yes side, suggesting thin support at the new level.
• Philadelphia’s Eastern Conference title odds: down from 9c open to 7c close (-22.22%), with massive 26,532 contracts of 24-hour trading volume. That is a notable combination: a big percentage move and one of the largest “today” volumes in the dataset.
• Orlando’s Eastern Conference title odds: also down from 9c open to 7c close (-22.22%). Unlike Philadelphia, Orlando’s 24-hour volume was just 14 contracts, a classic illiquidity-driven move worth treating cautiously.
• Deni Avdija Most Improved Player odds: up from 52c open to 64c close (+12 cents, +23.08%) on 1,931 contracts of 24-hour volume. This is a real repricing, not a one-lot drift.

The trade market drove the day’s urgency

The most information-dense action was in the Anthony Davis trade cluster:

• Anthony Davis to be traded by Dallas before February 6 jumped from 45c open to 62c close (+17 cents, +37.78%) on 2,870 contracts of 24-hour volume.
• In the “next team” market for Davis, Atlanta as Davis’s next team surged from 21c open to 45c close (+24 cents, +114.29%) with 2,282 contracts traded in the last 24 hours.
• Meanwhile, Davis staying with Dallas or retiring fell from 49c open to 39c close (-10 cents, -20.41%) on 1,456 contracts of 24-hour volume.

That three-way pattern is internally consistent: traders bought the trade, bought a specific destination (Atlanta), and sold the “stays” outcome. The Atlanta leg is also the most volatile, with a relatively wide 44c to 50c yes spread, signaling uncertainty even after the spike.

A second trade storyline also popped:

• Ja Morant to be traded by Memphis before February 6 ripped from 17c open to 39c close (+22 cents, +129.41%) on 4,046 contracts of 24-hour volume. That is one of the biggest percentage moves in the entire file, and it came with real size.

Futures cross-currents: Denver up, San Antonio down

Two Western Conference contenders moved in opposite directions:

• Denver’s championship odds rose from 10c open to 12c close (+2 cents, +20.0%) on 11,372 contracts of 24-hour volume. That is a meaningful volume signal for a futures market.
• San Antonio’s Western Conference title odds fell from 16c open to 12c close (-4 cents, -25.0%) on 4,993 contracts of 24-hour volume.

San Antonio’s championship odds, however, ticked up from 9c open to 10c close (+11.11%) on 8,083 contracts of 24-hour volume. That divergence (conference down, title up) is the kind of relationship traders should keep on a watchlist, since conference and championship pricing typically move in tandem.

Volume and order book highlights

• Oklahoma City’s championship odds remain the liquidity center of the futures board: 27,211 contracts traded in the last 24 hours and 759,452 open interest, with a tight 43c to 44c yes spread. This is where the market is most efficient.
• Phoenix’s playoff qualification odds were a notable “today” volume leader in team markets: 751 contracts in the last 24 hours, up from 70c open to 77c close (+10.0%). Despite the move, the yes side depth is thin at the top (only 60 contracts bid at 74c), which can amplify volatility.
• Miami’s playoff qualification odds show one of the widest spreads among prominent teams: 69c bid vs 84c ask. Even after a 6.25% up-close move (80c to 85c), that spread signals uncertainty and potential for sharp repricing on the next catalyst.

Notable markets worth watching into tomorrow

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Clutch Player of the Year odds exploded from 24c open to 43c close (+79.17%). The current market is 32c bid, 33c ask, so the day’s close suggests the move may have been volatile or print-driven, but it is still a major attention signal.
• Victor Wembanyama Defensive Player of the Year odds slipped from 20c open to 18c close (-10.0%) on enormous 83,351 contracts of 24-hour volume. When a high-volume award market moves down, it is usually not noise.
• LeBron James to be selected as an All Star fell from 91c open to 80c close (-12.09%) on 5,966 contracts of 24-hour volume, one of the clearest high-volume moves in the events board.

The Betting Edge

• Atlanta and Chicago were the biggest playoff-qualification losers, with Atlanta’s drop the cleanest single-team move on the day.
• The trade complex was the true driver of urgency, led by Anthony Davis and Ja Morant trade probabilities, both moving on heavy 24-hour volume.
• Watch for follow-through in the high-liquidity award markets, especially Defensive Player of the Year, where Victor Wembanyama’s price fell despite massive trading activity.

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