NBA Top Player Props | Monday’s Best Basketball Picks
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Eight games on the NBA board tonight, and the prop menu is deep. After scanning the full slate, the best edges appear where the market is still lagging recent hit rates and where books are offering a clear “shop-to-win" gap on the same number.
Below are the top player props to build around tonight, with the best available number at the time of analysis.
Where to Watch Chicago Bulls vs. Boston Celtics
Arena: TD Garden
Location: Boston, MA
Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
Date: January 5, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Derrick White Over 4.5 Rebounds (-134 consensus | best: -125 Fanatics)
White’s rebounding line is still sitting in a very playable pocket. He’s cleared 4.5 boards in 80% of his last five and 80% of his previous ten, with a 69.7% season hit rate to back it up. That’s the profile of a prop that should be shaded higher than a flat 4.5 at standard juice. The market also gives bettors a slight but real edge to shop: -125 is available vs -134 consensus, which matters over volume.
Where to Watch Atlanta Hawks vs. Toronto Raptors
Arena: Scotiabank Arena
Location: Toronto, ON
Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
Date: January 5, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Dyson Daniels Over 6.5 Assists (+103 consensus | best: +108 FanDuel)
This is the cleanest “form + price" assist look on the slate. Daniels has hit over 6.5 assists in 100% of his last five and 60% over his previous ten, and the number is still being dealt at plus money (+108 best, +103 consensus). Even with a modest season hit rate (57.14%), the recent role/output is strong enough that plus money is the key; this is precisely the type of spot where bettors want to be buying the over before the line moves to 7.5.
Where to Watch New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons
Arena: Little Caesars Arena
Location: Detroit, MI
Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
Date: January 5, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Mitchell Robinson Over 0.5 Assists (-158 consensus | best: -150 BetMGM)
It’s not glamorous, but it’s efficient. Robinson has cleared 0.5 assists in 100% of his last five, 90% of his previous ten, and 100% on the season. When a player is essentially “one dime away," and the data says he’s getting there almost every night, the only question is price, and bettors can improve it slightly by shopping to -150 vs -158 consensus. This is a strong add-on piece for parlays or a standalone if the bankroll strategy supports laying juice.
Javonte Green Over 6.5 Points (-139 consensus | best: Over 7.5 +105 Fanatics)
Green’s points prop is quietly one of the hottest trend lines in this game’s board: he’s hit his points over in 100% of the last five and 70% of the previous ten, with a 64.71% season hit rate. The market nuance: the best “value" isn’t necessarily the same line (Fanatics is hanging the over 7.5 at +105), which gives bettors a plus-money way to play the same scoring form while absorbing the extra point. If sticking to the consensus number, over 6.5 is fine; if hunting expected value, the +105 alt is the sharper angle.
Where to Watch Charlotte Hornets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Arena: Paycom Center
Location: Oklahoma City, OK
Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
Date: January 5, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
(Lean) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 Assists (+112 consensus | best: +120 BetMGM)
This one is more price-driven than trend-driven, but the number is attractive. The market is offering plus money on a primary creator assist line, and bettors can do better than consensus with +120 at BetMGM. With OKC projected to control the game, the main risk is blowout-related minutes, but at plus money, the over is still a reasonable buy when the best number is available.
Closing Thoughts
Tonight’s best card is built around repeatable roles and mispriced hit rates, not “ceiling" narratives. The biggest takeaway is to shop aggressively: several of these plays improve materially just by grabbing the best number.
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