NBA Top Player Props | New Year’s Day Best Basketball Picks
Joe Cervenka
Host · Writer
We rang in New Year’s Eve by hitting one of two props last night. De’Aaron Fox was on the bust side of our boom-or-bust pick from beyond the arc, while Peyton Watson took a larger role with Nikola Jokic out.
Let’s start 2026 with a bang by going two-for-two on our first prop picks of the year.
Dunk on the sportsbooks tonight! Grab SportsGrid’s free NBA picks, NBA props, and NBA SGPs
Where to Watch Philadelphia 76ers at Dallas Mavericks
- Arena: American Airlines Center
- Location: Dallas, Texas
- Where to Watch: NBA TV
- Follow: SportsGrid App (Download Here)
- Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Philadelphia 76ers at Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds
- Spread: PHI -2.5 (-112) | DAL -2.5 (-108)
- Moneyline: PHI -138 | DAL +118
- Total: Over 231.5 (-108) | Under (-112)
Philadelphia 76ers at Dallas Mavericks Kalshi Odds
- Chance: PHI 55% | DAL 45%
- Spread: PHI-1.5 Yes (54¢) | No (47¢)
- Total: Over 230.5 Yes (52¢) | No (49¢)
PHI vs DAL Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Update
Joel Embiid Over 33.5 Points+Rebounds -118
The Philadelphia 76ers continue their five-game road trip with a stop in Cowboys country as they hook up with the Dallas Mavericks. While it looked like it wasn’t going to happen, according to early injury reports, we will see a battle of oft-injured bigmen between Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis.
Embiid is coming off a vintage performance in a win over the Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday. The former third overall pick flirted with a massive triple-double, putting up 38 points, 10 boards, and eight assists. Perhaps most importantly, Embiid logged a season-high 38 minutes. While the Sixers have been load managing Embiid as he recovers from knee and ankle issues, a probable tag tonight suggests he should go full board.
The seven-footer has gone over this number in four of his past five games, with the lone missing coming on a 27-point, six-rebounds performance in a loss to the Brooklyn Nets just over a week ago.
The Mavericks’ defense has been anything but stellar this year. Dallas ranks 28th in allowing 47.7 boards per game and 20th in giving up 117.7 points a night. They’ve been specifically hurt inside, where they rank dead last, allowing 55.8 points in the paint per contest. Given those numbers, it’s not surprising to see Dallas rank 29th, allowing 25.3 points per game to centers, along with 15.5 rebounds per night, the third-most in the NBA.
While Davis’s return helps Dallas in the paint, this team has too many defensive holes. Add to that, AD is coming back from a thigh injury that’s cost him two-plus games after managing just 11 minutes against the Golden State Warriors on Christmas Day, and the Mavs may want to limit his minutes.
I’m expecting a big night from the Sixers superstar.
Where to Watch Boston Celtics at Sacramento Kings
- Arena: Golden 1 Center
- Location: Sacramento, California
- Where to Watch: NBC Sports California; NBC Sports Boston; NBA League Pass, Peacock
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
Boston Celtics at Sacramento Kings Betting Odds
- Spread: BOS -9.5 (-115) | SAC -9.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: BOS -390 | SAC +310
- Total: Over 227.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
Boston Celtics at Sacramento Kings Kalshi Odds
- Chance: BOS 77% | SAC 23%
- Spread: BOS -9.5 Yes (51¢) | No (51¢)
- Total: Over 227.5 Yes (52¢) | No (50¢)
BOS vs SAC Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates
Neemias Queta Over 9.5 Points -130
When the Sacramento Kings franchise will ever figure it out is anybody’s guess, but until then, I have no problem playing overs against their Swiss cheese defense.
The Kings rival the Mavs on the defensive end this season, allowing the fifth-most points in the Association at 122.3 per game. Also, like Dallas, they are getting beaten up in the paint. Sactown is giving up the second most paint points in the league, to the tune of 55.3 a night. They are also getting carved up by opposing centers, allowing a league-worst 25.7 PPG. While Domantas Sabonis is no elite defender, not having his near-seven-foot frame in the middle since early November has undoubtedly contributed to the Kings’ weakness down low.
Neemias Queta has solidified himself as the Boston Celtics’ starting center and go-to guy in the paint. The fifth-year man out of Utah State is shattering career-best in points (10.0 per game) and minutes (24:44 per game), nearly doubling his previous highs. Queta has been impressive inside with a 66.2 EFG%, while 77.1% of his points come inside the key, ranking 22nd in the league. The Portugese bigman has gone over this total in four of his past six games, coming up short twice while scoring eight points in each.
While much of Boston’s offense has come from beyond the arc this season, sitting second in the league in made threes (15.5 per game), they may look to attack inside tonight. Sacramento has actually been decent defending the perimeter, ranking in the upper half of the league, allowing 13 triples a night.
While I don’t love the price point (-130), the matchup is too good to pass up. Full steam ahead on Queta hitting double digits tonight in Northern California.
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