SportsGrid Edge: Jan. 28 NBA Injury Analysis & Net Rating Impacts

The most significant injury occurred on January 28 in Salt Lake City. Stephen Curry is day-to-day for the Golden State Warriors, and his availability has been a season-long swing factor for both results and efficiency.

Across nine games, several teams are dealing with meaningful absences or true game-time calls. Anthony Edwards (foot) and Cooper Flagg (ankle) headline the late-window uncertainty. Norman Powell is also a significant target to track for the Miami Heat.

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Chicago Bulls @ Indiana Pacers Injury Report & Trends

• • Indiana’s backcourt remains in a tough spot, keeping the offense fragile.

• • Obi Toppin is out, and he has only played three games this season, so his absence is already baked in.

• • Jarace Walker (bruise) is questionable, and he is currently projected to start. Walker is a 9.7 points-per-game forward, so any limitation matters for Indiana’s frontcourt minutes.

• • Chicago is without Tre Jones (hamstring), and the team profile shifts: 20-18 with him (minus-0.8 net rating) versus 3-5 without (minus-8.0).

• • With Jones out, Josh Giddey and Coby White are positioned to handle more creation in the starting group.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Cleveland Cavaliers Injury Report & Trends

• • This game has real star power, but it is also shaped by the absence of secondary creation on both sides.

• • Austin Reaves is out, and the Lakers have been steadier with him: 14-8 with him (minus-0.8 net rating) versus 13-9 without (0.0). Reaves also brings 26.6 points per game with a 28.8% usage rate, which is a major shot and playmaking chunk to replace.

• • With Reaves sidelined, the offense leans even harder on Luka Doncic and LeBron James in the starting lineup.

• • Cleveland is missing Darius Garland, and the season splits are dramatic: 13-13 with him (plus-2.8 net rating) versus 15-7 without (plus-2.2). The bigger swing is in the results, with a 68.2% win rate without Garland.

• • Evan Mobley is also out, and Cleveland has held up: 25-17 with him (plus-2.7 net rating) versus 3-3 without (plus-1.5).

• • If Sam Merrill (hand) plays through probable status, it stabilizes spacing around Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen.

Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics Injury Report & Trends

• • Boston’s rotation is thin up front, and Atlanta is missing a key scoring big man. 

• • Kristaps Porzingis is out for the Hawks, and he has been a meaningful driver: 9-8 with him (plus-3.2 net rating) versus 14-16 without (minus-3.0).

• • With Porzingis out, Atlanta’s frontcourt load falls heavily on Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu.

• • Boston has Neemias Queta (illness) doubtful and Luka Garza (illness) questionable. That matters because both are currently listed in the injury report while Amari Williams is projected to start at center.

• • The Celtics’ market read can get sensitive if both Queta and Garza sit, since it compresses Boston’s center minutes.

Orlando Magic @ Miami Heat Injury Report & Trends

• • This game is a two-sided wing-and-guard injury story, and it can swing both pace and shot distribution.

• • Norman Powell is questionable, and Miami’s season results have dipped without him: 23-18 with him (plus-2.1 net rating) versus 2-4 without (minus-1.2). Powell is also a 23.1 points-per-game scorer with a 27.2% usage rate.

• • Tyler Herro is out, and Miami has been far better without him: 4-7 with him (minus-5.5 net rating) versus 21-15 without (plus-3.9). That is a massive efficiency flip.

• • If Powell sits alongside Herro, Miami’s creation burden shifts toward Bam Adebayo and Andrew Wiggins, with Davion Mitchell (shoulder) also questionable.

• • Orlando is without Franz Wagner, and the Magic have taken a hit: 14-11 with him (plus-2.0 net rating) versus 8-11 without (minus-5.8).

• • With Wagner out, Orlando’s scoring responsibility consolidates around Paolo Banchero and Desmond Bane.

New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors Injury Report & Trends

• • Toronto’s center rotation is the key injury angle, and it changes how the Raptors can match size.

• • Jakob Poeltl is out, and Toronto has been slightly better without him: 13-8 with him (plus-3.0 net rating) versus 16-11 without (plus-1.4). The win rate is similar, but the net rating dips.

• • With Poeltl out, Sandro Mamukelashvili is projected to start at center, and Toronto’s rebounding and rim protection responsibilities will be spread across Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett.

• • Collin Murray-Boyles (thumb) is questionable, and he has been part of Toronto’s rotation in thirty-seven games.

Charlotte Hornets @ Memphis Grizzlies Injury Report & Trends

• • Memphis is missing its lead guard, which is forcing a different offensive identity.

• • Ja Morant is out, and Memphis has been better without him this season: 7-13 with him (minus-1.3 net rating) versus 11-13 without (minus-1.2). The win rate improves from 35.0% to 45.8%.

• • The bigger issue is frontcourt availability. Zach Edey is out, and Memphis has fallen off sharply without him: 7-4 with him (plus-5.6 net rating) versus 11-22 without (minus-3.6).

• • With Morant and Edey out, the offense and defense run more through Jaren Jackson and Santi Aldama, with Cam Spencer projected to start at point guard.

• • Charlotte is without Mason Plumlee, and the Hornets have been stronger without him: 2-6 with him (minus-5.0 net rating) versus 17-22 without (plus-2.6).

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks Injury Report & Trends

• • This is the slate’s biggest late-swap game because both teams have high-usage pieces on the report.

• • Cooper Flagg (ankle) is questionable, and Dallas has been much better in its limited sample without him: 17-26 with him (minus-3.3 net rating) versus 2-1 without (plus-12.7). Flagg is also an 18.8 points-per-game creator, so the shot volume has to go somewhere if he sits.

• • Dallas is also missing Anthony Davis, and the Mavericks have struggled without him: 10-10 with him (minus-2.9 net rating) versus 9-17 without (minus-1.8), with a win rate drop from 50.0% to 34.6%.

• • Minnesota has Anthony Edwards (foot) questionable. The Timberwolves have been better without him: 21-15 with him (plus-3.5 net rating) versus 7-4 without (plus-8.3).

• • If Edwards sits, more offense flows through Julius Randle, with Donte DiVincenzo handling more initiation.

Golden State Warriors @ Utah Jazz Injury Report & Trends

• • This game is defined by one question: can Golden State generate elite offense without its engine?

• • Stephen Curry is day-to-day, and the Warriors’ season profile swings hard: 22-15 with him (plus-4.5 net rating) versus 4-7 without (minus-3.9). That is a 23.1 net rating swing.

• • Golden State is also without Jimmy Butler III, and the drop is even steeper: 23-15 with him (plus-4.8 net rating) versus 3-7 without (minus-5.7).

• • If Curry sits again, the starting group leans on Brandin Podziemski and Draymond Green (back), with Green listed as probable.

• • Jusuf Nurkic (illness) is questionable for Utah, and the Jazz have been winless in the last five without him: 2-3 in the previous five with him versus 0-5 in the last five without.

• • Lauri Markkanen still drives Utah’s offense, but the center minutes get stressed if Nurkic sits.

San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets Injury Report & Trends

• • This matchup is cleaner than most, but one questionable forward can still matter for rotations.

• • Jeremy Sochan is questionable for San Antonio. The Spurs have been slightly better without him: 14-8 with him (plus-5.0 net rating) versus 17-7 without (plus-5.0), with a win rate jump from 63.6% to 70.8%.

• • Houston is without Steven Adams, and the Rockets have been strong either way: 21-11 with him (plus-7.4 net rating) versus 7-5 without (plus-2.9).

• • With Adams out, Alperen Sengun becomes even more central to Houston’s interior minutes, alongside Kevin Durant as the primary scorer.

NBA Injury Statistical Impact Analysis, Jan. 28

• • Golden State is 22-15 with Stephen Curry (plus-4.5 net rating) versus 4-7 without (minus-3.9)

• • Golden State is 23-15 with Jimmy Butler III (plus-4.8 net rating) versus 3-7 without (minus-5.7)

• • Memphis is 7-4 with Zach Edey (plus-5.6 net rating) versus 11-22 without (minus-3.6)

NBA Injury Betting And Fantasy Implications

• • Golden State’s side and total are most sensitive to Stephen Curry’s final status, given the 23.1 net rating swing this season.

• • If Norman Powell sits with Tyler Herro already out, Miami’s shot creation consolidates, and Bam Adebayo’s offensive role becomes more critical.

• • With Franz Wagner out, Orlando’s offense should continue to funnel through Paolo Banchero and Desmond Bane.

• • Dallas becomes a late-window leverage spot. Cooper Flagg’s questionable tag can reshape both Dallas usage and Minnesota matchup choices.

• • Memphis’s missing Zach Edey is a significant frontcourt downgrade, and it can show up in rebounding and interior efficiency.

NBA Injury Players To Monitor

• • Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

• • Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors

• • Gary Payton II, Golden State Warriors

• • Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks

• • Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves

• • Norman Powell, Miami Heat

• • Davion Mitchell, Miami Heat

• • Kel’el Ware, Miami Heat

• • Jarace Walker, Indiana Pacers

• • Luka Garza, Boston Celtics

• • Collin Murray-Boyles, Toronto Raptors

• • Jeremy Sochan, San Antonio Spurs

• • Keyonte George, Utah Jazz

The SportsGrid Betting Edge

The slate’s cleanest injury edge is still Golden State. Curry and Butler are the two names that can force the biggest market reprice. Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.

Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 28.