Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target for Sunday, January 25

Sunday’s NBA slate brings a clean mix of early tips and late-night windows. That’s perfect for prop hunting. The market has already adjusted for the obvious spots. The edge comes from matchup-specific history, role stability, and line shopping.

After scanning every game in the data, four props stand out with layered support. Each pick pairs strong hit rates with opponent context, splits, and a clear floor-ceiling profile.

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Top NBA Player Props for Sunday, January 25

Ausar Thompson Over 5.5 Rebounds

Sacramento Kings @ Detroit Pistons Matchup

• • Arena: Little Caesars Arena
  • Location: Detroit, MI
  • TV: NBA League Pass
  • Date: January 25, 2026
  • Time: 3:00 PM ET

Odds as of January 25, 2026 at 9:08 AM ET

Ausar Thompson enters tonight’s matchup with a rebound profile that keeps cashing. He has cleared this line in 100% of his last five games and 80% of his last ten. He’s also on a five-game hit streak. Thompson’s season average sits at 6.0 rebounds with a 4.0 floor and 7.5 ceiling. The home environment has been even better, with a 6.4 home average and 100% hit rate in his last four at home. At plus money at Fanatics, the price is doing heavy lifting.

Jaren Jackson Under 21.5 Points

Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies Matchup

• • Arena: FedExForum
  • Location: Memphis, TN
  • TV: NBA League Pass
  • Date: January 25, 2026
  • Time: 3:30 PM ET

Jaren Jackson has been priced like a consistent scorer, but the results do not match this number. He has cleared 21.5 points in 40% of his last five and 40% of his last ten. His season hit rate is just 29.27% with a season average of 18.9 points. The opponent history is the separator. Jackson is 0-for-7 against Denver on this line. His 15.0 floor also leaves little margin for error at this number. Memphis is also on one day of rest, while Denver has two, which can matter for legs and shot volume.

Zion Williamson Over 5.5 Rebounds

New Orleans Pelicans @ San Antonio Spurs Matchup

• • Arena: Frost Bank Center
  • Location: San Antonio, TX
  • TV: NBA League Pass
  • Date: January 25, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET

Odds as of January 25, 2026 at 9:08 AM ET

Zion Williamson has been a steady rebound bet at this number. He has cleared 5.5 rebounds in 80% of his last five and 60% of his last ten. His season average is 5.9 rebounds, with a 4.0 floor and 7.5 ceiling. The matchup history is strong too. Williamson has hit in five of six against San Antonio (83.33% vs opponent hit rate). The Spurs also rank 19th in rebounds allowed to this spot, allowing 5.2 versus a 5.4 league average. At plus money at DraftKings, this is a clean buy on a stable role.

James Harden Over 4.5 Rebounds

Brooklyn Nets @ Los Angeles Clippers Matchup

• • Arena: Intuit Dome
  • Location: Inglewood, CA
  • TV: NBA League Pass
  • Date: January 25, 2026
  • Time: 9:00 PM ET

Odds as of January 25, 2026 at 9:08 AM ET

James Harden is in a strong spot to keep the rebound streak going. He has cleared 4.5 rebounds in 80% of his last five and is riding a three-game hit streak. His season average is 4.8 rebounds, with a 3.0 floor and 7.0 ceiling. The matchup also supports it. Harden has hit in three of five against Brooklyn (60.0% vs opponent hit rate). The Nets rank 28th in this defensive bucket, allowing 3.1 versus a 3.5 league average. At even money at BetMGM, the number is playable without needing a perfect game script.

The Betting Edge

This slate has enough volume to stay selective. The best props are the ones that win multiple ways. That means hit rates plus opponent history, plus a price worth taking.

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Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 25.