Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target for Thursday, January 15
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
I went 2-1 yesterday and am looking to keep the winning streak going.
Nine NBA games headline Thursday’s slate, and the prop board is loaded with a mix of star ceilings and role-player stability. After scanning every matchup in the data, the best edges appear where recent hit rates align with opponent history and a clear matchup or usage angle.
Find the Edge with SportsGrid’s Free Daily NBA Picks and Player Props.
Phoenix Suns @ Detroit Pistons Matchup
- Arena: Little Caesars Arena
- Location: Detroit, MI
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 15, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
Cade Cunningham Over 26.5 Points
Odds: Consensus -118 | Best Price -105 @ DraftKing
Cade Cunningham enters tonight’s matchup with a perfect 100% hit rate over 26.5 points in his last five, and he’s also cleared it in 70% of his previous ten. The baseline production supports it too: Cunningham is averaging 26.7 points on the season, with near-identical splits at home (26.5) and on the road (26.9). The matchup adds another layer of value; Phoenix ranks 26th in points allowed to this position (13.2 allowed vs 14.2 league average), and Cunningham’s current five-game over streak keeps the pressure on a number that hasn’t moved off his season mean.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets Matchup
- Arena: Toyota Center
- Location: Houston, TX
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 15, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
Alex Caruso Over 1.5 Assists
Odds: Consensus +125 | Best Price +130 @ Fanatics
Alex Caruso is the definition of a role-player prop with a real floor: he’s hit over 1.5 assists in 100% of his last five and 60% of his last ten, with a season hit rate of 79.31%. The opponent history is the separator: Caruso is 7-for-7 against Houston on this line (100% vs. opponent hit rate). The matchup also cooperates: the Rockets rank 29th in assists allowed to this position (4.1 allowed vs 4.6 league average). With a statistical floor of 1.0 and a ceiling of 3.0, plus plus-money available, this is a clean over to target.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 Assists
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been consistently clearing this number: 80% over 5.5 assists in his last five, 70% in his previous ten, and 84.62% on the season with a 6.4 season average. The Houston matchup is a strong historical fit as well. Gilgeous-Alexander has hit in 77.78% of his last nine against the Rockets. And while his home/road split is basically flat (6.3 at home, 6.4 away), the opponent profile is what matters: Houston ranks 29th in assists allowed to this position (4.1 allowed vs 4.6 league average). With a 5.0 floor and 8.0 ceiling, the over is still priced like a coin flip.
Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks Matchup
- Arena: American Airlines Center
- Location: Dallas, TX
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 15, 2026
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
P.J. Washington Under 7.5 Rebounds
P.J. Washington is in a brutal spot for a rebound over, and the market is still hanging 7.5 on the second night of a back-to-back. Washington has missed this line in five straight (0% hit rate in his last five, -5 streak), and he’s only at 40% over the previous ten. Even his season average (7.4) sits below the number, and his recent floor/ceiling band (5.5 to 9.0) shows how thin the margin is at 7.5. With Dallas allowing 5.2 rebounds to this position (rank 23rd), this profiles as a fatigue-tilted under, where the recent form is too strong to ignore.
The Betting Edge
The best prop cards are built on alignment: recent hit rates, opponent history, and a number that still leaves room for the true median outcome. Thursday’s slate offers that mix across multiple games, and when the market gives plus-money on high-probability roles, that’s where disciplined bettors press.
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 15.
