5 Dark Horse Final Four Contenders to Watch in February

5. South Florida Bulls (+9500)

A true long-shot, the South Florida Bulls are one of the nation’s best surprises during the 2024 season. Head coach Amir Abdur-Rahim came in from Kennesaw State, completely flipped the roster through the transfer portal, and has the Bulls sitting at 12-1, leading the American Athletic Conference. South Florida has won 11 games in a row, including a win over last season’s “Cinderella,” Florida Atlantic. South Florida is 2-0 against ranked teams and 5-3 in road games. They allow only 68.8 points per game and have two veteran guards (Chris Youngblood and Selton Miguel) averaging more than 14.5 points per game and shooting better than 42 percent from three.

2. Alabama Crimson Tide (+430)

Few teams are playing as well as the Alabama Crimson Tide. As of February 20, the Crimson Tide sit atop the loaded SEC with a 10-2 league record. A black mark on their resume would be a 1-5 record against ranked teams, but most of those five losses came early in the season. The Crimson Tide have improved over the past month, winning six of seven games and scoring at least 85 points in five. Mark Sears is a guard who can get hot and win the Tide a couple of games in the NCAA Tournament with his superior shot-making and creation. Alabama is now tied for second nationally with 90.7 points per game. The tournament will have matchups against teams that cannot score with the Tide, so they have a real shot to make a run to the Final Four.

3. Iowa State Cyclones (+400)

If you prefer a battle-tested defense for your NCAA dark horse team, turn your attention to the Big 12 and the Iowa State Cyclones. TJ Otzelberger’s squad allows only 62.9 points per game and is in second place in the nation’s toughest conference. The Cyclones have wins over Houston, TCU, Kansas, TCU, and Texas Tech, with the ability to win away from Ames. This is a balanced squad with five players averaging 9.5 points per game or more. Iowa State is not a household name, but this veteran team can frustrate opponents, and a run to the Final Four would not be shocking.

4. Clemson Tigers (+2700)

We are now entering long-shot territory, but the Clemson Tigers offer an attractive value play at +2000 to reach the Final Four. The Tigers are only 7-7 in the ACC but can beat some of the country’s best teams. They have victories on the road against Alabama and North Carolina and a home victory over South Carolina. Clemson has an inside-outside duo of PJ Hall and Joseph Girard that combine to average more than 35 points per game. Girard is the kind of guard that can hit five or six three-pointers and swing a tournament game. Clemson has had late-game collapses against Georgia Tech, Duke, Virginia, and NC State (four losses by a total of six points) that could give them a much worse seed than the quality of the team, which invites value. The Tigers become an exciting proposition if they end up as a six-seed and avoid a one-seed until the Elite Eight.

5. South Florida Bulls (+9500)

A true long-shot, the South Florida Bulls are one of the nation’s best surprises during the 2024 season. Head coach Amir Abdur-Rahim came in from Kennesaw State, completely flipped the roster through the transfer portal, and has the Bulls sitting at 12-1, leading the American Athletic Conference. South Florida has won 11 games in a row, including a win over last season’s “Cinderella,” Florida Atlantic. South Florida is 2-0 against ranked teams and 5-3 in road games. They allow only 68.8 points per game and have two veteran guards (Chris Youngblood and Selton Miguel) averaging more than 14.5 points per game and shooting better than 42 percent from three.