NCAAB · 1 year ago

American Tournament Betting Guide: Owls or the Field?

David Connelly

Host · Writer

American Tournament Best Bet: South Florida (+550)
It's another league on our conference tournament journey where the regular-season champion is heavily undervalued in the betting market. While South Florida doesn't have the predictive metrics to back up their performances on the surface, they have been the best team in the league per Bart Torvik's T-Rank since the start of February. Chris Youngblood and Selton Miguel provide a consistent backcourt scoring punch, while Kasean Pryor is an impressive stretch forward option.
American League Overview
For the first time since its inception in 2014, the American is on pace to be a one-bid league in 2024. Of course, that could all change if anybody not named Florida Atlantic wins the automatic bid, but the Owls are the favorites heading into the event. After completely imploding in late January, Memphis has steadied the ship and boasts the talent capable of making a run. We haven't even mentioned regular-season champion South Florida yet, either! Headlines surround this year's field, and we're here to break it down.
American Tournament Favorite: Florida Atlantic (+160)
The season hasn't entirely gone how the preseason polls had expected for the Owls after being given a top ten spot in the preseason AP Top 25 poll. But if you look at the metrics, FAU has been about as advertised. They started at 36th in KenPom and currently sit 37th. Some ugly losses have hindered their resumé, but they are still the only team in this league with a firm chance at an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. This feels like a team built for a postseason run rather than the regular season. The Owls are rightfully favored to cut down the nets this weekend.
American Tournament Challenger: Memphis (+440)
Memphis has been Jekyll and Hyde all season long. Wins over FAU, Clemson, Virginia, and Texas A&M are impressive performances hindered by inexcusable losses to Tulane, UAB, and Rice, a trio of consecutive defeats that closed out January. You never know which Tigers team will show up, but that may make for the best bet. If the high-end version of Memphis is in Fort Worth this week, you have a lottery ticket at this price. But if the Tigers fall flat on their face and get upset by Rice or Wichita State in the second round, that wouldn't be a total shocker either.
American Tournament Dark Horse: UAB (+1300)
Andy Kennedy is quietly entering Fort Worth this weekend with quite the sleeper. The Blazers have beaten Florida Atlantic, Memphis, South Florida, and North Texas, proving they can take on the cream of the crop in the American. JUCO transfer Yaxel Lendeborg has been a force for UAB over the past six weeks. The 6'9" forward averages 17.3 points and 12.6 rebounds on 53 percent from the floor in their past ten contests. He could be a massive difference-maker in their chances of claiming the league's auto bid. The X factor will be guard Eric Gaines. The Blazers are so much better when he is on his game, something that doesn't come as consistently as it should.
American Tournament Best Bet: South Florida (+550)
It's another league on our conference tournament journey where the regular-season champion is heavily undervalued in the betting market. While South Florida doesn't have the predictive metrics to back up their performances on the surface, they have been the best team in the league per Bart Torvik's T-Rank since the start of February. Chris Youngblood and Selton Miguel provide a consistent backcourt scoring punch, while Kasean Pryor is an impressive stretch forward option.
American League Overview
For the first time since its inception in 2014, the American is on pace to be a one-bid league in 2024. Of course, that could all change if anybody not named Florida Atlantic wins the automatic bid, but the Owls are the favorites heading into the event. After completely imploding in late January, Memphis has steadied the ship and boasts the talent capable of making a run. We haven't even mentioned regular-season champion South Florida yet, either! Headlines surround this year's field, and we're here to break it down.