Big 12 Best Bets: Week 4 of the 2024 College Football Season
Grant White
Host · Writer
Things are about to get real in the Big 12. Tune-up contests are in the rearview mirror, and teams head into conference play, ready to play their best football. This season comes with the added incentive of a guaranteed playoff berth for the Big 12 champion, meaning teams can’t afford any off weeks if they hope to make a deep run come January. Two teams already face increased pressure in the first week of the full conference schedule.
We’ve identified our three favorite plays from this week’s Big 12 schedule.
Big 12 Play (1 Unit)
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Spread: Arkansas State +21.5 (-110) | Iowa State -21.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Arkansas State +1060 | Iowa State -2300
Total: OVER 51.5 (-110) | Under 51.5 (-110)
One of two non-conference tilts on the Week 4 schedule, the Iowa State Cyclones host the Arkansas State Red Wolves coming off an early-season bye week. The Cyclones should be well-rested and ready to tame an exhausted Red Wolves side.
Arkansas State had lofty ambitions when it set its schedule. The Sun Belt contenders are amid back-to-back road games against Power 4 juggernauts. They lost Week 3’s tilt against the Michigan Wolverines, covering the hefty +21.5 spread in a 28-18 defeat, and are now traveling to Jack Trice Stadium on Saturday. As expected, the Red Wolves couldn’t keep pace with their hosts mustering just 280 yards of offense while trailing from the outset.
It’s unlikely Arkansas State gains any offensive traction against a stout Cyclones defense. Through two contests, Iowa State limits opponents to an average of 299.0 yards and 11.0 points per game. They also don’t blow opponents out of the water, deferring to a more conservative style of offense while averaging 6.4 yards per play.
If not for 15 points in the fourth quarter, the Red Wolves would have come up well short in their pursuits in Week 3. We anticipate a more robust effort from the Cyclones on Saturday as they prepare to stymie their well-traveled guests after a week off. Iowa State has the right combination of elite defense and conservative offense that should result in a low-scoring affair. We’re betting this one stays under 51.5.
Recommended Play: Under 51.5
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Bigger 12 Play (2 Units)
#12 Utah Utes vs. #14 Oklahoma State Cowboys
Spread: Utah +2.5 (-105) | Oklahoma State -2.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Utah +112 | Oklahoma State -134
Total: OVER 52.5 (-105) | Under 52.5 (-115)
Inarguably the most exciting contest on the Big 12 schedule this week, the Utah Utes travel to Boone Pickens Stadium for a showdown versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys. As inferred by the spread, this will be one of the most tightly contested battles of the week. While the betting market has taken a firm stance on the Cowboys, we like Utah’s chances of keeping this close.
As usual, Oklahoma State blows its opponents out of the water with its air raid offense. The 14th-ranked Cowboys are averaging 472.5 yards per game against FBS schools, translating to 42.0 points. Still, their offense might not be as impervious as those metrics make them out to be. Heisman contender Ollie Gordon has been limited to a combined 90 rushing yards over the past two weeks, averaging a minuscule 2.7 yards per carry. Further, Alan Bowman has yet to face a defense of Utah’s caliber, suggesting his stats are inflated to begin the campaign.
Utah has effectively limited opponents, and we expect their defense to be at its best on Saturday. Including Week 1’s win over FCS Southern Utah, the Utes limit opponents to 252.7 yards and 11.0 points per game. Moreover, Cameron Rising has his team moving the ball downfield, netting 5.5 yards per play on offense.
It’s unlikely that either team break away at any point in this pivotal Big 12 contest. Oklahoma State’s offense isn’t as unstoppable as it may seem, and Utah possesses the defensive fortitude to hold firm. As a result, we like their chances of keeping this within a field goal and giving their offense a chance to win the game late.
Recommended Play: Utah +2.5 -105
Biggest 12 Play (3 Units)
Kansas Jayhawks vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Spread: Kansas +2.5 (-115) | West Virginia -2.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Kansas +105 | West Virginia -126
Total: OVER 57.5 (-115) | Under 57.5 (-105)
Week 4 is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for the Kansas Jayhawks and West Virginia Mountaineers. Both squads are a disappointing 1-2 to open the campaign. A win for either program salvages the start of their Big 12 schedule, with the loser forced to climb out of the depths of a 1-3 start. The Jayhawks are attracting money as underdogs, but we expect West Virginia’s home-field advantage to be the difference on Saturday.
Kansas hasn’t fared well against mediocre competition to open the season. The Jayhawks’ lone victory came back in Week 1 against the FCS Lindenwood University Lions, dropping consecutive games against the Illinois Fighting Illini and UNLV Rebels. Turnovers were an issue in both losses, with Kansas posting a -5 turnover differential. Jalon Daniels was the main culprit, throwing five interceptions across those outings.
Milan Puskar Stadium is an unforgiving environment, and the Mountaineers can wield that to their advantage in Week 4. The raucous crowd will make it hard for Daniels and the Jayhawks to build offensive momentum, giving West Virginia’s defense an edge in making stops.
Combined with their offense that put up nearly 400 yards last week against the Pittsburgh Panthers, the Mountaineers have the advantage heading into their first Big 12 game of the season. Kansas continues to get in its own way, making it too hard to overcome the challenges of playing on the road against a rowdy West Virginia side. We’re in the minority, but we’re backing the Mountaineers as short home chalk.
Recommended Play: West Virginia -2.5 -105
Record: 7-2-0 ($650)
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